College Basketball Couch Power 10 (Feb. 14th)
Vanderbilt's thrilling win over in-state 'big brothers' Tennessee will certainly remain one of their season highlights, but ended up just being the first of two buzzer-beater losses for the Vols in the span of a week.
Welcome back to the Couch Power 10, and Happy Valentine's Day, you college basketball lovers! Today marks an important day for multiple reasons: for those of you in a committed, loving relationship, it provides an opportunity to celebrate your loved one and love itself. For us singles, it marks exactly one month until tipoff on the greatest postseason in American sports, March Madness. Who's to say which occasion is more momentous?
As the one month countdown clock to the Big Dance begins, the wild carousel that is this college basketball season has not stopped turning. In the last week alone, a stunning 17 ranked teams dropped games, and perhaps even more stunning? Of those 17, all but six of them were to unranked teams! Yes, you're doing the math right: in the last seven days, 11 different ranked teams lost to unranked opponents. Madness, baby!! Spare a thought in particular for Tennessee, who just a couple weeks ago was ranked #2 in the nation. The Vols lost not one, but two games to unranked opponents in a five-day span, on not one, but two game-ending buzzer beaters.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it's been a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ll try my hand at ranking the top teams based on what they’ve done to date:
1. Alabama
What a quick time away from the top for the Tide; my inaugural #1 team fell out of my good graces with their embarrassing loss to Oklahoma a couple weeks ago, but now has climbed all the way back. Losses by other teams certainly have helped, but so has the Tide's 4-game win streak since then, most recently on the road at rivals Auburn in the College Gameday showdown this past weekend. Bama's form is back, but an incredibly tough road game at Tennessee awaits tomorrow.
2. Houston
ESPN's strength of record model still isn't that high on Houston, placing the only 2-loss team in the country at #5, and if we're being fair, their only game since last week was against 5-win Tulsa. Still, they demolished the Hurricane as they should, and a 6-game winning streak which included avenging their sole conference loss means this is still a resume that, while perhaps unimpressive, is also free of any real blemishes.
3. Purdue
Last week, Purdue held on to the #1 spot in both the Couch Power 10 and the AP polls despite losing, a recognition of their impressive comeback in the Indiana loss and their still-impressive season to date. A second loss in 3 games this past weekend, though, this time a more comfortable one to bubble team Northwestern, is not going to cut it any more. Purdue still probably has the highest ceiling of any team, and is certainly the toast of the Big Ten, but dropping games in a mediocre conference can be a dangerous game for a team that doesn't have a whole lot of trademark wins to write home about.
4. Kansas
The Jayhawks' only game since last week was a demolition of unranked Oklahoma (they take on Oklahoma State tonight), and that was enough to continue the defending champs' good form, now on 5 wins from their last 6, with half the games coming against fellow ranked opponents. The metrics still like 5-loss Kansas a lot, their strength of record to date coming second only to Alabama's.
5. Texas
Despite being the first 6-loss team to make an appearance on the Couch Power 10, there's a lot to like to about Texas' resume. So much, in fact, that I even flirted with the idea of breaking my cardinal rule and keeping them ranked ahead of a Kansas team who beat them head-to-head, but fortunately Texas Tech helped make that decision easy for me by upsetting the Longhorns last night. Even with the frustrating loss to their in-state rivals, none of UT's losses are to bad (or even mediocre) teams, and a cavalcade of noteworthy victories (Baylor, Gonzaga, Creighton, Kansas State, TCU) keep them very much in the hunt for a high seed.
6. Baylor
From one 6-loss Big 12 team to another: please welcome the 2021 National Champion Baylor Bears to the Couch Power 10 for the first time this year! Baylor has hovered around the Top 10 for much of the season, but finally breaks through amidst the jumble of losses by other teams, and an incredible stretch of their own: they have currently won 10 of their last 11 games. The sole loss in that time was to Texas, which keeps them beneath the Longhorns for now, but their impressive form has seen them work their way into a tie for 1st place in the jumbled Big 12, and wins over the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga and more are all aging like a fine wine.
7. Virginia
This last week wasn't the smoothest one for the Cavaliers, barely staving off Duke at home (and not without some questionable officiating). But when all was said and done, Virginia beat a couple good teams in NC State and Duke to complete their season sweep of Tobacco Road, and move to 10 wins out of their last 11. I'm not convinced the Hoos are an elite side still, but evidence points to their loss at Virginia Tech two weekends ago as being an aberration, at least.
8. Arizona
Arizona continues to be perhaps the most confounding team in the country, one of the most difficult to rank. Case in point: this last week, the Wildcats demolished Cal to extend their 7-game win streak, only to turn around and lose handily to a bad Stanford team. What to do with a team that has a nice 22-4 record and is 6-0 in 'big games,' and own the head-to-head against the Pac-12 leaders, but sit three games back in the conference standings because all four of their losses are to bad-to-mediocre conference foes? I'm still inclined to believe the former is the "real Arizona," and the latter fact an aberration, but we may not truly know until tournament time.
9. UCLA
In a week where I, abnormally, am agreeing a lot with the two major polls, UCLA represents our biggest disagreement of the week. I'm a little confused how both the AP and Coaches jumped the Bruins all the way up to #4 in a week in which they only beat the two mediocre teams from Oregon, one of them in a narrow contest. UCLA has a good record, to be sure, with zero 'bad' losses and a solid lead in the Pac-12. But a sub-50 schedule strength and 1-3 record against their only opponents that are currently ranked has me a little more bearish on them than the masses, apparently.
10. Miami
This is another source of decent disagreement between The Couch and the big polls. They're sleeping on Miami! And no, this is not just recency bias because the Hurricanes beat my beloved Tar Heels last night: Jim Larranaga's men might just be the best team in the ACC (supported by the fact that they've provided 1 of league leaders Virginia's 2 conference losses). Their schedule strength isn't sterling, and they do have a couple head-scratching Ls on their resume: a blowout by Maryland, and a loss to Georgia Tech. But their 3 other losses all came on the road against solid teams by a combined margin of 7 points, and apart from the Virginia victory, they own six additional "quality" wins, according to ESPN. This team will be a tough out in March, much as they were last year.
Just missed: Xavier, Kansas State, Marquette, Gonzaga, Missouri, Brady Manek :(
BONUS! Since we're just one month away...
Couch Top Seed Projections
SOUTH (Louisville): Alabama
MIDWEST (Kansas City): Houston
EAST (New York City): Purdue
WEST (Las Vegas): Kansas
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