College Basketball Couch Power 10 (Champ. Week)
Our last Power 10 of the regular season starts the way our first one did: with a favored Duke team getting beat on their home floor, and their opponents taunting their fans
Congratulations, college basketball fans. We did it. It's scarcely believable, but we have made it through yet another regular season, and now only postseason tournaments remain. As such, this is our final Couch Power 10; indeed, the next time you hear from me will be after the Big Dance has already begun.
So where do we stand as we head into the greatest postseason in sports? Well, right as the picture seemed to be getting a little clearer, the regular season spat up a little more sweet, sweet chaos for us. Did it fully recapture the level of unhinged much of this season has been? Probably not. But it did reassure us fans that last week's general chalkiness was actually the aberration, not a reversion to the mean, and that we're headed for a fairly mad March indeed. 15 ranked teams suffered a loss last week, and over half of them were to unranked opponents! These 'unranked over ranked' upsets ranged from the "eh, that team probably should have been ranked anyhow" (Florida over Alabama, Texas Tech over Baylor) to "what in the WHAT?!" (USC over Arizona, Tulsa over South Florida), but all threw a wrench in NCAA tournament standing and/or conference tournament seeding. The last Saturday of the season always promises a slate of high-stakes matchups, and this one did not disappoint...at least in terms of matchups. In terms of the games themselves? That's another matter. The best teams in the country all separated themselves from the pretenders: UConn making fairly easy work of #7 Marquette, Purdue making easy work of Wisconsin, Houston making absurdly easy work of #14 Kansas (the Jayhawks' 30-point loss was their worst regular season loss in a decade), and then in the nightcap, North Carolina finished off a season sweep of their rivals with another comprehensive win over #9 Duke.
True to form for the last few years in college basketball, it was yet again a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ll try my hand at ranking the top teams based on what they’ve done to date:
1. Purdue
Purdue closed their regular season with three wins over tournament teams, including a road win at Illinois on Tuesday night to clinch the Big Ten over the 2nd-best team in the conference. They finish the season tied for the best record in the land, and did it against the 3rd-hardest schedule in America. Regardless of past tournament failures, the Boilermakers have proven they deserve the #1 overall seed, perhaps depending on what shakes out this week.
2. Houston
If I wobbled at all, though, in putting Purdue at the top spot in the final rankings, it was because of Houston. I was a long-time skeptic of the Cougars, but to run away with the Big XII title-- arguably the deepest league in college basketball --in your first year in the conference is one hell of a statement. So is finishing the season with 9 consecutive wins and putting the mother of exclamation points on your year by finishing it with a 30-point demolition of the conference's flagship program, Kansas.
3. Connecticut
Keeping in lockstep with the dominant triumvirate, the Huskies also closed out their season in dominant fashion, with their stumble at Creighton 3 weeks ago remaining their sole loss in the year 2024. Marquette was missing star player Tyler Kolek, but for UConn to go into Milwaukee and sweep the Big East's #2 team was no small feat, nor was following that up with a blowout road win over bubble team Providence in the season finale. Thanks to somewhat of a down year for the Big East, UConn's schedule strength rates lower than their 1-seed peers, and thus the reigning champs are likely to be third overall if conference tournament results shake out similarly for them, Purdue and Houston, but there's a good case to be made that they are once again the best team in the country.
4. North Carolina
What did I say just one week ago?? I felt like many were sleeping on and had written off this North Carolina team too early!! And now, we end the season with the Tar Heels in the exact spot in this Couch Power 10 that they held in the first edition, 4th place overall and in prime positioning for a 1-seed. Granted, even I didn't expect Carolina to prove me right so resoundingly, but a 35-point breeze past Notre Dame on Senior Night followed by a comprehensive, wire-to-wire win at #9 Duke to complete the season sweep and clinch the outright ACC title showed America this team's got a considerable amount of dawg left in them. Heading into the postseason on 6 straight wins by increasingly impressive fashion, I get the sense this is not a team anyone wants to face this postseason.
5. Tennessee
Tennessee was so close to all but locking up that last 1-seed, but their stumble at the finish line coupled with UNC's big win over Duke flung the door back open. Still, even if the home loss to Kentucky is a stinging way to end a terrific regular season, it was a terrific regular season for the Vols. A 24-7 clip against the 10th-hardest schedule, and 6 wins over ranked teams--including South Carolina on Wednesday, which helped them clinch the SEC title --is an impressive clip, and depending on how the SEC tournament plays out, still may be more than enough to earn them a top seed.
6. Iowa State
In a similar vein, Iowa State was both making a run at a share of the conference title and putting together a nice little package to be considered for a 1-seed should one or both of UNC and Tennesse slip up this week...only to lose in the last game of the season. And, though their loss at least came on the road, they don't have Tennessee's excuse of stumbling against a very good opponent, losing solidly to a mediocre Kansas State side who will almost surely miss the tournament altogether. It's a likely fatal blow for the Cyclones' top-seed dreams, but it does little to sully the incredible season Iowa State has had, slotting in comfortably as the second-best team in the Big XII, and notching no less than 10 quality wins on the year.
7. Arizona
Oh, did someone say "stumble at the finish line?" Enter Arizona! The Wildcats capped off their Pac-12 title-winning season with a truly inexplicable loss at cellar-dwellers USC. Now, do I think the tumble completely out of the Top 10 was warranted? No, I do not; I think that was a bit overkill from the voters, who have never been quite as high on Zona as I am. That said, was I premature in boosting the 'Cats all the way up to #4 in my last Power 10, disregarding their mediocre strength of record? The USC loss shows that, yes, I was, and more concerning than that, Tommy Lloyd's team does not seem to have fixed their consistency issues.
8. South Carolina
To the very end, I remain considerably higher on South Carolina than the poll voters are. And part of me gets it: the Gamecocks played a weak non-conference schedule, and when they've lost, they've lost BAD-- whether it's to bad teams (LSU and Georgia) or just by a gajillion points (47-74 to Alabama, 61-101 to Auburn). But hear me out: they've also barely lost! Yes, they dropped the SEC title decider at home to Tennessee, but that was a hard-fought loss against a likely 1-seed who they already beat on their home floor! And with 7 other quality wins to their name, ESPN's metric rates Lamont Paris' squad as #8 in terms of strength of record. That's all the support I need to stick with my optimistic rating of one of the season's remarkable surprise successes.
9. Creighton
10. Marquette
In the last two slots for the last Power 10 of the college basketball season, I'm going with two Big East sides whose resumés look eerily similar. The Golden Eagles, by some objective measures, have the edge; the records are identical, and Marquette has played the harder schedule, and earned one more quality win than the Jays have. This is why they are the more likely of the two to snag a 2-seed on Sunday (though again, conference tournament results will play a huge role in that). But I give the slight edge to Creighton, I imagine for the same reason the poll voters who placed them at 8 and Marquette at 9 did. The difference in strength of record is not all that significant, records are identical, and while the two did split their matchups on the year, it's hard not to like the team closing out their season with 7 wins out of 8 a little more than the team limping to the finish line (and with their star player in questionable availability status). Especially when Team A just beat Team B by 14 points last weekend.
Just missed: Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, Auburn, Dook, Cormac "Cold Blooded" Ryan
BONUS!
Couch Regional Seeding
MIDWEST (Detroit):
1. Purdue
2. Iowa State
3. Marquette
4. Kentucky
SOUTH (Dallas):
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Creighton
4. Auburn
EAST (Boston):
1. Connecticut
2. South Carolina
3. Illinois
4. Duke
WEST (Los Angeles):
1. North Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Baylor
4. Kansas
Comments