2021 Couch Power 10, Week 11
As we near the finish line in this wild college football season, there are signs of (gulp) reverting to the mean. It pains me to say it, but there are early indicators of the cream rising to the top again, as is what is usually the case in college football. After all, with two weeks left in the regular season, we have a Top 4 that includes Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State. And this week saw the fewest changes in the College Football Playoff rankings since they were first released.
And yet, because this season is the absolute best, even the most mundane, least “eventful” week of the season wasn’t devoid of exciting action. 4 ranked teams lost again, 2 of them to unranked teams, and two others were taken to overtime by unranked teams. Plus, one of those losses threw a serious wrench in the playoff picture. I mentioned last week that Oklahoma’s season-closing stretch will either silence the haters or validate the skepticism. Baylor’s win over Oklahoma, then, and in particular the dominant way they put the Sooners away in the 2nd half casts serious doubt over their playoff prospects, which has ramifications in the Big 12 and elsewhere.
Just a refresher: our ranking is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. You know, the kind of thing you'd expect the playoff committee to consider:
1. Georgia
If Tennessee, who has been sneakily decent in Josh Heupel's first season as coach, had any dreams of derailing their old rival's dream season, they lasted all of one quarter. In what is becoming a trend, Georgia started a little slow out of the gates, before absolutely blasting their opponents away in quarters 2-4 and reminding the nation that they're the best team in the country in the process.
2. Cincinnati
Even though it didn't result in any upward movement in the latest College Football rankings, last weekend was a good one for Cincinnati. Even though they still didn't look quite as dominant against South Florida as they would have hoped, it was more comfortable of a win than what the Bearcats had trotted out the last few weeks, which builds confidence heading into a very tough matchup against SMU. At the same time, Oklahoma's loss reduces the possibility of the Sooners leapfrogging them in the rankings should they remain undefeated.
3. Oregon
The Ducks didn't win many style points last weekend, but gutted out a tough and crucial win over a decent Washington State team. I could probably copy and paste that analysis for Oregon's game and apply it to any of their wins since their sole loss, to Stanford. Considering the chaos that has struck across the country, the fact that their sole loss was farcical, and their win over Ohio State is aging quite nicely, I'm standing by Oregon as my top-rated one-loss team.
4. Alabama
I don't think Alabama deserves to be ranked 2nd in the country, though I do think there's a decent chance they are the second best team in the country. However, the Tide steamrolling New Mexico State in Week 11 of the season does little to prove or disprove either sentiment.
5. Ohio State
I fully expected Ohio State to beat Purdue on Saturday; the home crowd, the "can Purdue spring another upset?!?!" hype, the high Big Ten Championship stakes...it all seemed to point to another easy Ohio State win. That said, I don't think I expected quite the level of domination the Buckeyes unleashed on Saturday, when the game was essentially over by halftime. I had hedged on them in the rankings until now, given the lack of impressive win over a quality opponent, but with that firmly in hand now, I feel comfortable joining the masses that proclaim them Big Ten favorites.
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
That said, there's still quite a race in the Big Ten East to be decided, with both Michigan teams still breathing down the Buckeyes' neck. I stand by my (and apparently, the playoff committee's) claim that Michigan is actually the better team than their rival, but I still don't feel comfortable jumping them ahead of State, who just beat them head-to-head a few weeks ago. Although Michigan gutted out a crucial and significant road win at Penn State last weekend, I'm not going to have them supplant the Spartans after a week in which the latter bounced back from their loss impressively, dispatching easily of a potential trap opponent in Maryland.
8. Notre Dame
Notre Dame got some of that Irish luck playing a Virginia side whose star QB Brennan Armstrong was out injured. There's no question Armstrong, who would be a shoo-in for 1st team all-conference if he didn't play in the deepest QB conference in the nation (I said what I said), would have made a huge difference, but still, for the Irish to put on such a dominant display on the road, at night, against a solid team... they're going to sneak up and snag a playoff spot, aren't they?
9. Oklahoma State
I don't know if any team in the country has responded as well from their one loss as Oklahoma State has. Since the close loss to Iowa State, the Cowboys have beaten Kansas (who took Oklahoma to the wire and just beat Texas), West Virginia and now TCU (fresh off their upset of Baylor) by a combined score of 140-23. Meanwhile, Oklahoma's loss means the Pokes are tied for first place in the Big 12, are the highest-ranked Big 12 team, and have a real chance at eliminating their hated rival from even playing in the conference championship in the season finale. Life is alright in Stillwater!
10. UTSA
UTSA had a less-than-glamorous win, struggling to put away a bad Southern Miss team. But you know what? They won, and stayed unbeaten. A win is a win. A perfect record is a perfect record, and only three teams in the country now can lay claim to that. So put some respect on the Roadrunners' name.
Just missed: Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Butkus Award snubee Jeremiah Gemmel
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