Europa League and Champions League Final Predictions
Well, here we are. After over 365 exciting, bizarre, and surreal days, the long and winding 2019-20 football season comes to a close this weekend. As is the case with most all sporting events in the era of COVID-19, it will feel strange to watch the Champions League final, one of soccer’s biggest nights, in late August in an empty stadium in Portugal. But I doubt fans of Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will consider their Final appearance as anything but on the same level as all other Finals.
Before we get there, though, we have today's Europa League Final! Sevilla booked their place in the tournament’s championship for a record 6th time via a late win over Manchester United. You may notice that their 2-1 win was actually what yours truly predicted. Thank you, thank you, I accept your plaudits.
It was a great round for me professionally, as I proceeded to get all the remaining fixtures correct, going 4 for 4. Sadly, it came at the expense of personal enjoyment. Whether or not Sevilla was truly an underdog is up for debate, but most English and American fans at least would have been surprised to see a team like Man U lose to them. But the rest of the semifinal stage went chalk to the maximum degree. In the other Europa League semifinal, Inter Milan waxed Shakhtar Donetsk 5-0. Then, in the Champions League, Paris and Munich extinguished the last embers of a Cinderella run in the tournament by besting RB Leipzig and Lyon, respectively, both by the score of 3-0.
The good news is, from a non-partisan perspective, it sets up the potential for two really good Final matches. So let’s get to analyzing them!
Europa League Final: Sevilla vs. Inter Milan
Europe’s second tournament has, since 2016, offered the incentive of Champions League qualification with winning the title. That stipulation won’t mean a whole lot to either finalist, as they’ve both booked their places for that tournament in 2020-21, so they’ll have to settle for a measly old trophy as reward. I jest, but really, part of trying to guess how this final will shake out is trying to determine who will be more motivated for it.
The easy answer is Sevilla. They had less domestic joy than Inter Milan, and they’ve been to this match 5 times and won all 5. You think they want to be the first Sevilla squad to lose a European final? Doubtful.
That said, it’s hard to watch Inter’s 5-0 dismantling of Donetsk and conclude they’re anything but locked in. After finishing a narrow 2nd place in Serie A, losing in the semifinals of Coppa Italia, and being narrowly edged out in the group stage of the Champions League, the Milanese are probably just as desperate for silverware.
I’m not sure there is a clear motivation advantage in this Final, is, I guess what I’m saying. So though I truly believe this could go either way, I have to look at the talent on the field, and the managers on the benches, and in both regards, Inter Milan comes out on top.
The Pick: Inter Milan, 3-1
Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich
Storylines abound in this Champions League Final, a classic tale of the old guard vs. the nouveau riche. The circumstances of this final might be different than ever before, these guys might have spoiled the party by ending the streak of having an underdog team in the Final, but it's hard to argue that they don't deserve this honor. Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain have undoubtedly been the best two teams in this tournament.
Let's start with the Parisians, who have the honor of being the first French team in 16 years to play for the title (Didier Deschamps' Monaco in 2004 was the last to appear, and they lost to Jose Mourinho's Porto). The knockout stages were not always straightforward for them, as they required dramatic comeback wins against Borussia Dortmund in the Round of 16 and Atalanta in the quarterfinals to progress. Before those matches, though, they had impressed in the group stages, going unbeaten with a +15 goal differential in a group that included Real Madrid and Turkish stalwarts Galatasaray. Their semifinal against RB Leipzig was a return to "early tournament PSG"; in a match where there was every reason to believe Leipzig had the capability to play spoiler, PSG took control early in the match and never relinquished it. The final score was 3-0, and were it not for uncharacteristically poor finishing from Neymar-- who was otherwise brilliant-- and Mbappé, it well and truly could have been more like 6-0 or 7-0. I'm not sure whether this was a one-off perfect storm of favorable matchups + key players returning from injury, or a sign that they are peaking at the right time, but either way, Paris Saint-Germain and their fans have to feel decently optimistic heading into the Final.
And that's important, because optimism might be the best you can ask for when coming up against this Bayern Munich team, who have reached the Final by winning all 10 of their matches, for a total scoreline of 42-8. You read that correctly; they are scoring more than 4 goals a game, and conceding less than 1 goal a game on average. And it's not as if Der FCB are rolling over the Sisters of the Poor, either. Their opponents in this tournament include last year's runners-up Tottenham Hotspur, Olympiacos, Chelsea, Barcelona and now Lyon. Ironically enough, though it seemed a foregone conclusion they'd be playing in the Final, Bayern's stiffest test in this tournament was probably on Wednesday. They scratched out a 3-0 victory over spoiler team Lyon, but their first two goals (both courtesy of tournament MVP Serge Gnabry) came against the run of play, after the French side had somehow missed 4 brilliant chances to take the lead.
Before Tuesday, it seemed insane to me to expect any result in this tournament but a Bayern Munich title, but the semifinal round makes me question that somewhat. Paris Saint-Germain were oh-so-dominant in their semifinal match, and Bayern were just shaky enough in defense (I recognize how absurd that sounds in the wake of a 3-0 victory, but seriously, it's remarkable that Lyon weren't at least 2-0 up in the early stages), that now just about any result wouldn't come as a surprise to me on Sunday. Perhaps Bayern continues their utter domination and crushes an infamously mentally-weak PSG side, or perhaps this is the day the former's shooting boots finally go missing, and PSG's brilliant front 3 capitalizes on counterattacks through the heart of Munich's inconsistent back line. But what I will predict-- and admittedly, this is wishful thinking from an objective standpoint --is somewhere in the middle: an exciting, back-and-forth match that showcases both brilliant attacking play and defensive lapses, and that ultimately, Bayern Munich, the truly superior team, pulls out in extra time.
The Pick: Bayern Munich, 3-2 (E.T.)