Champions League (Restart) Predictions: Round of 16, Leg 2
If, like me, you have been watching with dismay while American idiocy prolongs the COVID crisis and endangers our beloved summer and fall sports seasons, you may be interested to know that many European countries have curtailed the virus enough to safely resume their biggest sporting competitions! Yes, the Champions League, the most prestigious club-level soccer tournament, is back in action after being suspended back in March.
Granted, the remainder of the tournament is going to look extremely different not just from the earlier rounds, but from any Champions League ever. First of all, unsurprisingly, it will resume without fans, an omnipresent sports reality in 2020. Secondly, starting with the quarterfinal round, the usual home-and-away format will be abandoned for a single-elimination tournament, transpiring entirely in Portugal. Before we get to that point, though, the final four "Leg 2" matches of the Round of 16 need to be played. This piece is breaking down those matches, set to be played tomorrow and Saturday.
The powers to be did agree to let the teams that were set to host these matches still do so in their home stadiums; though they won't have the benefit of fans present, they will have the familiarity of their own ground.
My soccer content focus has been elsewhere-- specifically, in England for the Premier League --most of 2019-20, but I promise I have in fact been following the Champions League from the start and am not just now tuning into the tournament. In case you are doing just that, though, a quick rundown on what you've missed:
For the first time since 2007, the two teams from last year's Final have already been eliminated in the Round of 16. Champions Liverpool were felled by a vintage Atlético Madrid performance (defenddefenddefenddefenddefendefenddefenddefendand STRIKE!), while Tottenham Hotspur were blown away by German upstarts RB Leipzig.
Speaking of Leipzig, them and debutantes Atalanta are both making their first-ever appearances in the quarterfinal stage, the latter after dominating Valencia.
The two aforementioned clubs have already been drawn on the same side of the bracket as a largely underwhelming Atlético Madrid side and notorious European collapse artists Paris Saint-Germain, meaning there is a high probability of seeing a first-time Finalist in 2020
The other half, of the bracket, however, is a who's-who of Europe's most prestigious clubs: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Chelsea, and Manchester City will all be doing battle for a single spot in the Final....and Napoli and Lyon will be doing their best to make sure none of them get it.
Now, to this week's slate of games:
Juventus vs. Lyon
Leg 1: 1-0 Lyon
Lyon comes into leg 2 holding onto a 1-0 upset, and thanks to the extended layoff, has their star and captain Memphis Depay back from injury. They also will not have to worry about a raucous, volatile crowd in Turin.
That said, while Juventus haven't been perfect since the restart-- notably losing the Coppa Italia to underdogs Napoli --they were pretty dang good in closing out yet another Serie A title, and you get the feeling Ronaldo and co. are hungry for more trophies. Given that Lyon's Ligue 1 abandoned their season months ago, the French club has only played three fixtures in the last several months, and these included a Coupe de France defeat to rivals Paris Saint-Germain and a 2-0 friendly loss to Scotland's second-best team. Yikes. An upset in this tie is not out of the question, but there's little from recent weeks to indicate that it will happen.
The Pick: Juventus, 3-0 (3-1 on aggregate)
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Leg 1: 2-1 Manchester City
This matchup already promised to be fascinating, based on the ridiculous amount of talent on the field-- and ridiculously deep pockets of both clubs. But this particular matchup will be particularly fascinating because of how wildly different the clubs' seasons have transpired since Leg 1 back in March. At that time, Manchester City were already all but eliminated from the Premier League race, and with a European ban looming, seemed desperate to focus all efforts in the Champions League. At that time, Madrid had to balance their desire for a return to Champions League glory with their desire for a return to La Liga glory, and weren't in particularly good form in either competition.
All these months later, Madrid are suddenly in torrid (in the American understanding of the word) form, winning 10 consecutive matches en route to their 34th La Liga titles. City, meanwhile, epitomized their enigmatic selves in the restart, alternating between absolutely blowing off the doors of opponents and then inexplicably dropping matches to Chelsea, Southampton and Arsenal, costing them a chance at both the Premier League and the FA Cup. More significantly, however, they had their ban on European football overturned, meaning they will have a chance to come back to this competition next year, a fact that was far from confirmed the last time these two played.
This recent trend, as well as the lack of a real home-field advantage for Manchester City to look forward to, leads me to believe that, while we may be treated to a terrific match, Madrid might ultimately just come back and snatch this one.
The Pick: Real Madrid, 3-1 (A.E.T.) (4-3 on aggregate)
Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea
Leg 1: 3-0 Bayern Munich
Frank Lampard's young Chelsea side enjoyed a thrilling, surprising Premier League season and a bit of a dream start to the Champions League as well, topping a competitive group. But that good run came up against a freight train named Bayern back in March, who scorched the Blues at their home in London.
We don't need to spend too much time on this one: Bayern Munich's gonna win the tie. I initially thought an energized Chelsea attack might actually give them enough to at least win this individual match over a less-motivated Bayern, but given the injuries to Christian Pulisic and Pedro, as well as the impending departure of Willian, I don't think I can even give them that any more.
The Pick: Bayern Munich, 3-2 (6-2 on aggregate)
Barcelona vs. Napoli
Leg 1: 1-1 Draw
Nobody had any idea what the post-COVID break World would look like, but perhaps we should have noticed the early signs of Barcelona's La Liga collapse back in March. Make no mistake, Napoli is not an easy place to notch a Champions League win (just ask Liverpool), but the rather listless 1-1 draw was indicative of the lack of sharpness the team showed in the months since the restart. Unlike the days of Guardiola and Enrique, Barca don't have a manager who has the trust of their key players, and unlike the days of any time ever, they won't have a loud Camp Nou to lift their spirits.
Neither side's play in the year 2020 gives one much confidence in their long-term future in this tournament, but Barca's trajectory and general lack of cohesion in the last few months is particularly troubling. Napoli aren't nearly as good a team, but they at least showed impressive fighting spirit in grinding out the Coppa Italia over Juventus in June. It feels like there's at least one big upset left in this round, and I'm going to predict this one is it.
The Pick: Napoli, 1-0 (2-1 on aggregate)