The Nominees: Album Of The Year
The last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year.
As has been discussed on this blog the last few years, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. Case in point: in alternating years, Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé lost the award despite having the biggest AND best albums of their respective eligibility periods. That said, perhaps Kacey Musgraves' victory last year for Golden Hour signified a change in the tide in that regard.
The Album of the Year race is unlike many, perhaps any, before them. It's not as wide open or unknown as the field last year-- the only other year to feature 8 nominees rather than 5--was, as there are certainly a few defined favorites. But in most every year before 2019, the Album of the Year showdown would pit the commercial pick against the critical pick, with the commercial increasingly more likely to triumph. Recent examples are Kendrick Lamar's DAMN. vs. Bruno Mars' 24K Magic, or the former's To Pimp A Butterfly vs. Taylor Swift's 1989, or Beyoncé's Lemonade vs. Adele's 25. This year, however, the three most commercially successful nominees are ALSO among the most critically-acclaimed. And yet, though you'd think this would make one of those three the shoo-in to win, they all represent something or someone that the Grammys have tended to snub, whether that is modern club pop, or black artists in general, or Arian Grande specifically. This opens the door for the possibility that one of the other more indie (and, frankly, white) candidates could prevail. It truly is a guessing game at this point. So, let those guessing games begin!
In order from worst to best odds, according to GoldDerby.com:
I Used To Know Her - H.E.R.
Odds: 19-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 86th
Metacritic rating: n/a
Strongest Song: "Fate"
Weakest Song: "Be On My Way"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7.5/10
Quick take:
I wrote this back in 2018, when ranking I Used To Know Her amidst my top releases from that year: "20-year old Gabi Wilson, otherwise known as H.E.R., is someone that if you don't already know, you should know. Don't feel bad if you aren't familiar; my first exposure to the R&B virtuoso was in the wake of her stunning Grammy nomination. That nomination is actually for her eponymous 2017 album, but she released a 2-part EP, in installments named The Prelude and Part 2. Between the two, there are about 15 tracks of phenomenal music. Wilson is one to know now, and keep an eye on for the future." Turns out the future was...one year later, as H.E.R. finds herself nominated for the biggest award for the second consecutive time. This was touched on in the Song and Record of the Year previews, but it's difficult to decide whether H.E.R.'s Album of the Year nomination is truly stunning, or if we should have expected it, given that her even less ubiquitous debut EP was nominated for the award just last year. At any rate, it's certainly a longshot, but I'll be delighted for the artist if she pulls off the upset to end all upsets.
7 - Li'l Nas X
Odds: 9-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 57
Strongest Song: "Old Town Road (Remix)"
Weakest Song: "F9mily (You and Me)"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 5.5/10
Quick take:
Regardless of whether you saw H.E.R.'s nomination coming, this was truly the most stunning nominee of them all. There wasn't a soul that didn't expect Li'l Nas X's record-setting "Old Town Road" to get a Record of the Year nod, and "Panini" receiving love in the Rap/Sung category isn't astonishing albeit less of an anticipated event. But for 7, an EP with wildly mixed reviews, 25% of whose tracklist contains some variation on "Old Town Road" to get an Album of the Year nod? Who among us could have predicted that? You can't even make the claim that it's 'Rap's entry in the field,' because it's as much Country and Punk Rock as it is Hip-Hop. 7 is a mess, in often wonderful ways; the genre-swerving Li'l Nas X does isn't actually as disastrous as you might expect, and it's at least energetic from start to finish. But "hey, that was pretty fun! And not all bad" isn't typically the recipe for an Album of the Year winner.
Father of the Bride - Vampire Weekend
Odds: 9-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 82
Strongest Song: "Harmony Hall"
Weakest Song: "Sympathy"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
Quick take:
Six years after the egregious snub of Vampire Weekend's Modern Vampires of the City, the beloved alternative/indie group finally receive their first major category Grammy nom. When Rostam Batmanglij, long thought to be the creative force behind the band, announced his departure in 2016, many assumed that was it for Vampire Weekend. Then at the beginning of the summer, out of nowhere, they released Father of the Bride. Sonically, it's all over the place, a record reminiscent of The Beatles' White Album. But most of the songs are absolute keepers, and despite the increased musical experimentation, FOTB may be Vampire Weekend's most clearly themed lyrical album yet. It'd be a surprising, but deserving winner.
i,i - Bon Iver
Odds: 15-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 26th
Metacritic rating: 80
Strongest Song: "U (Man Like)"
Weakest Song: "iMi"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
Quick take:
Yet another nominee that was surprising not because of its quality, but rather because of the nature of the artist. Bon Iver, well known as they are, still don't command any sort of radio presence, so you may have missed that they were releasing a new album. furthermore, frontman Justin Vernon has been vocal about his dislike of awards shows. However, there's no doubt i,i is one of the best albums of the year. With lyrics discussing toxic masculinity and the presidential election, and a musical sound that draws on the wildly different stylings of each of the band's 3 previous albums, it's Bon Iver at their most global.
thank u, next - Ariana Grande
Odds: 15-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 86
Strongest Song: "ghostin"
Weakest Song: "7 Rings"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7/10
Quick take:
Ariana Grande is one of the most recognizable people and voices in pop music. But somewhat shockingly, the Grammys have never taken much of a liking to her, opting instead for others she shares a stratosphere with, such as Adele, Drake and Taylor Swift. Her 2018 release Sweetener seemed like a shoo-in contender for the top award, and while it did win Best Pop Album, it didn't even score a nomination. The Recording Academy didn't make the same mistake this time, granting Ariana five total nominations on the night, including putting thank u, next up for the major award. Personally, I found it a bit more inconsistent than its predecessor, but there's no denying thank u, next is a great pop album, and the combination of its huge commercial success and positive critical reception make it a formidable contender.
Norman Fucking Rockwell! - Lana Del Rey
Odds: 7-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 3rd
Metacritic rating: 87
Strongest Song: "Bartender"
Weakest Song: "Mariners Apartment Complex"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7/10
Quick take:
Following in the footsteps of Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend, Lana Del Rey is another early 2010s alternative darling who has ended that decade with a nomination for Album of the Year. It feels like cognitive dissonance to see Lana nominated for multiple major Grammys, but that's not to say it's not deserved. Norman Fucking Rockwell! (I'm really curious to see how they get around that album title on the live show) was one of the most critically-acclaimed albums of the year, with Del Rey's songwriting in top form. Though I personally didn't favor NFR in comparison to several of her previous albums-- largely because of its noteworthy stripped-down sound --I would still be happy to see it score a victory on the night, even if it would take a decent upset.
Cuz I Love You - Lizzo
Odds: 11-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 4th
Metacritic rating: 84
Strongest Song: "Juice"
Weakest Song: "Exactly How I Feel"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8.5/10
Quick take:
The two most favorites, according to bettors, are really no-brainers. Lizzo, the singer, rapper and classically-trained flautist took the country by storm in 2019, thanks in large part, ironically, to her 2017 song "Truth Hurts." But this is not an instance to write off a Grammy nominee just because of their mass appeal: Lizzo is the real deal, proving her equal deftness throughout Cuz I Love You at songwriting, singing and rapping. (And yes, the flute makes an appearance.) She's likely to give a terrific performance, and would be an exciting winner.
When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? - Billie Eilish
Odds: 9-2
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 82
Strongest Song: "when the party's over"
Weakest Song: "8"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8.5/10
Quick take:
If you told me after last year's Grammys that the overwhelming betting favorite for 2019 Album of the Year would be an 18-year old, I wouldn't have known how to respond. But that was before the World truly knew about Billie Eilish. Eilish was much like Lizzo in the way she exploded into the national consciousness in 2019. Even if her punk-rock fashion sense, or ghostly-whisper singing voice has caused you to roll your eyes for eternity, trust me when I say When We All Fall Asleep would be a deserving Grammy winner. There's enough creativity and vulnerability there for you to find at least a few songs you'll want to replay.