Premier League Predictions, Week 21
© Micah Veldkamp, 2019
Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! That's right, it's a Premier League prediction piece on a Monday. I know you all heard from me just three days ago, but believe it or not, the matches are restarting tomorrow. The league is wasting no time kicking back off with an eye towards the upcoming Winter Break in mid-February. As a result, we have another cluttered fixture list in what is becoming January's response to Crazy December (tm).
Such a short turnaround also gives me incentive to quickly rectify my misgivings from last time out. Though as a Liverpool fan I reveled in my team's victory over hated rivals Manchester United, my pundit self had a particularly brutal weekend. In addition to undervaluing my favorite team, I did not foresee Chelsea nor Leicester losing the matches they did, and did not expect Manchester City to drop points to Crystal Palace again. My in-game analysis of Watford-Tottenham was all wrong, but the fact that they played to a draw meant I was able to avoid being blanked and salvage a 1/5 mark for the week. This updates my season total to 43/70, which, like the North Carolina basketball team, is considerably closer to .500 than I intended on being at this point in the season.
Now, the matches are less than 24 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time reflecting on past mistakes. Here are your 5 for Week 21!
Sheffield United vs. Manchester City
The London derby, which we will discuss next, is likely to get more media attention, but this is sneakily the most competitive fixture of the week. Never in a thousand years did I think we'd be saying that this season about a match between the two-time defending champions and a club playing in the Premier League for the first time in 13 years. But perhaps the only thing more surprising than Manchester City's unreliability this year has been the consistently solid performances from Sheffield United. The Blades are exceptionally well-coached by Chris Wilder, and have been a thorn in just about everybody's side this year, as they find themselves just 6 points off of a Champions League spot. It's difficult to imagine a team as talented as this Manchester City side dropping points in consecutive matches to clubs like Crystal Palace and Sheffield, but with the title likely out of their reach, and in front of a hostile crowd, can you really bet on them taking 3 points off a good Sheffield United side at this point?
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Chelsea vs. Arsenal
In a rematch of a fixture played less than a month ago, rivals Chelsea and Arsenal clash tomorrow afternoon, and I genuinely have no clue what to expect. On the one hand, Chelsea is a genuinely good team this year, solidly in the Top 4, while Arsenal has struggled around the middle of the table for much of the season. On the other hand, Chelsea's form has been all over the place recently, while the Gunners have shown steady albeit slow improvement under new manager Mikel Arteta. On the other hand, after yet another surprising loss-- this time to Newcastle --last week, surely Chelsea won't drop another match when they're in need of a win, particularly at home. On the other hand, after a heartbreaking collapse vs. Chelsea last time out, surely Arsenal won't lose to them again, particularly when the Gunners are desperate to earn Arteta a signature win. In the end, because I truly can't make up my mind, I'm going to take the coward's way out and predict a draw.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Leicester City vs. West Ham
Boy, are things going south for Leicester City. After spending several months as the second-best team in the Premier League, the Foxes are in a real rut, perhaps reverting to the more mediocre form most expected from them this season. They missed a golden opportunity to capitalize on Manchester City's surprising result against Palace by blowing a goal lead against an average Burnley side. The good news for them is that, thanks to the wildly inconsistent form that everyone (sans Liverpool) is showing, Leicester is still comfortably in the Top 4. But they need a win, and though I've shown false hope in them for some time now, a home date against 16th-placed West Ham might be just what the doctor ordered.
The Pick: Leicester City, 1-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Liverpool
Liverpool are so comprehensively brilliant this season, that at the conclusion of their 2-0 victory over rivals Manchester United last weekend, their fans, easily the most paranoid fanbase in the league thanks to decades of heartbreak, finally felt emboldened to release the "We're Going To Win The League" chorus. And it's almost certain they will- FiveThirtyEight, one of the least statistical holdouts to favor Liverpool's odds over Manchester City's recently updated their odds to a > 99% chance that the Reds will win their first English title in over 30 years. I said all along that if it were going to be possible for any team to catch Liverpool, it would be because of this three-match stretch that they are approaching the end of: at Tottenham, Manchester United, and at Wolverhampton. Instead, in the wake of their two victories, Liverpool have only widened their lead atop the standings. That said, call me absurd, pessimistic or stubborn, but I've said from the jump that the Reds will not emerge from this three-match stretch with three wins, and I'm sticking by that. I'm not going to predict a loss for them, mind you, but Wolves for months now have shown a quality that puts them level with just about everyone in the league beneath Liverpool. They gave the Reds one hell of a fight at Anfield just a few weeks ago, and fresh off a thrilling comeback victory this past weekend, will be motivated by their home crowd and turn in a performance capable of ending Liverpool's 7-match clean sheet streak.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
West Ham vs. Liverpool
Six days after facing Wolves, Liverpool will finally play the fixture at West Ham that was scheduled to take place the week before Christmas. Due to their involvement in both the Club World Cup and the League Cup, it needed to be moved to this date, hence why the Reds have played one less match than the rest of their counterparts. Two straight road matches in hostile environments might spell trouble for most clubs, but 2019-20 Liverpool is no ordinary club. They are head and neck above everyone else, and unlike Wolves, West Ham lack the quality to spring a surprise even on an off day for their opponents.
The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1