Alternative Realities For 2019's College Football Postseason
Credit: FiveThirtyEight, 2019
Just a couple nights ago, the curtain fell on a remarkable college football season. The confetti is probably still laying on the Superdome floor-- let's be real, the Saints aren't using the building. (Too soon?) The cigar smoke is still billowing out of LSU's locker room, and wads of "fake" cash are still falling out of their players' pockets. (Definitely too soon.)
This year's Championship was a fitting ending to a thrilling college football season. There were multiple classic games with down-to-the-wire finishes, several weeks on end where one of the title contenders lost in stunning fashion, and as we approached the end of the season, multiple teams played hot potato with the fourth playoff spot, as well as with the Group of Five automatic qualifier. Yet throughout it all, it remained clear that LSU, Ohio State and Clemson were the cream of the crop, and the former in particular was on a warpath this year. Accordingly, in the postseason we saw two classic games played between those three teams, and in the final one, LSU's team of destiny, playing at home in New Orleans, took home their first title in over a decade.
This time last year, discussion about an expanded playoff was at an all-time low. Clemson had just capped off a season in which themselves and Alabama felt on a different stratosphere from the rest of the college football landscape by decisively earning their national championship. In addition, UCF, the only other unbeaten team and the darlings of the anti-establishment crusade, had lost their bowl game. There didn't seem to be much of a reason to entertain other scenarios that could have played out, because every one would have ended with Clemson winning. This year, LSU has been just as dominant, if not more so, as Clemson was last season, but the rise of a new guard as well as more parity in the tier immediately below the Top 3 has led many to start discussing playoff options again. It's even catching on amidst some members of the college football punditry, who by and large, remain a staunchly anti-change body. Of course, the latter party aren't alone; many (predominantly SEC and Clemson fans, if I had to guess) argue that expanding past 4 teams would only weaken the regular season and result in more blowouts like the 63-28 firework fest we saw between LSU and #4 Oklahoma in this year's playoff.
I don't subscribe to that theory. For starters, for every season in which we have a "clear top 2 teams," there's one like just two seasons ago, wherein the Top 2 teams lost in the playoff semifinals and there were at least 4 teams left out of the playoff altogether that had a very legitimate case to be included. Furthermore, who's to say that the playoff would give us the same teams every year? That's the beauty of March Madness, isn't it? The reason it's so hard for teams to even play, let alone win, titles in College Basketball as effortlessly as Alabama has done and now Clemson is doing in College Football is because it's really freaking hard to string together 6 performances against the nation's best teams over the course of 3 weekends every year. If a selection committee handpicked the Final Four in basketball the way they do in football, we'd see Kansas and Duke trading off titles every season. Instead, despite those programs being consistently among the highest seeds in the tournament, they've won 3 championships amongst themselves in the last 18 years. A wider field means just that, a wider chance for everyone, and thus, less of a guarantee that we'd be seeing the same teams atop the podium year after year.
All this being said, I thought it'd be fun to examine how some of those playoffs would have transpired this year. Specifically, I thought we'd look at the NFL-Style, 8-Team, and 32-Team ideas, as those are the 3 formats the social medias seem to have spent the most time bandied about. In terms of how these alternate realities played out: there's no point in arguing hypotheticals, so I just went on bowl results. It's imperfect, but it's hard to know what else to work with. If the bowl results were comparable, I looked for tiebreakers like home-field advantage, or, you know, ranking.
ALTERNATE REALITY 1: THE NFL-STYLE PLAYOFF
Brief refresher of the format
6 teams
5 conference champions
One at-large team, the highest ranked non-champion (or Non-Power Conference Champion)
Top 2 teams would receive a first-round bye
In the semifinals, the #1 team would host the lowest-ranked team left, while the #2 team would host the second-lowest-ranked team.
Championship played at a neutral site.
How it all went down
Play-in round: #6 Oregon @ #3 Clemson, and #5 Georgia @ #4 Oklahoma
Oregon's defense keeps them close with Clemson for the first half, then a roaring Death Valley causes havoc on a frazzled Justin Herbert, and the Tigers win going away.
Playing with a chip on their shoulder in the wake of their SEC Championship shellacking, and facing a familiar QB in Jalen Hurts, Georgia stifles Oklahoma's fast-paced offense and shocks the home crowd in Norman.
Semifinals: #1 LSU vs. #5 Georgia, and #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
In the first semifinal, #1 LSU is stunned by Georgia. No really, hear me out-- I know it's a stretch, but it's hard to beat a really good team twice in one season, let alone twice in three weeks. Kirby Smart is a heck of a coach, and I have to imagine he'd have his guys a lot more prepared to face LSU the second time around.
Ohio State and Clemson play the classic affair that they did in the real life playoff. This time, though, without almost 50% of the crowd to lift them, Clemson's comeback falls short.
An Ohio State-Georgia final would have been a lot more anticlimactic than the one we got. But before we end up at the final, we would have seen two classic semifinals, and the closest thing to a Cinderella run we could ask for with Wild Card Georgia reaching the championship.
ALTERNATE REALITY 2: THE 8-TEAM PLAYOFF
Brief refresher of the format
8 teams
5 Power Conference champions, plus 3 at-large teams
If a non-P5 team is unbeaten, they get a bid
Quarterfinal round played at the higher seed's home field, though if one of the teams is a Power 5 conference champion, they automatically get home-field advantage over an at-large side
Semifinals and Final use current format
How it all went down
Quarterfinals: #8 Baylor @ #1 LSU; #5 Georgia @ #4 Oklahoma; #7 Florida @ #2 Ohio State; #6 Oregon @ #3 Clemson
After an admirable effort in the first quarter by Baylor's defense, LSU blows the game open down to the stretch, especially after injuring Baylor's QB.
In the "Urban Meyer Bowl," Ohio State starts hot and clings to their lead thanks to a raucous home crowd.
Oregon's defense keeps them close with Clemson for the first half, then a roaring Death Valley causes havoc on a frazzled Justin Herbert, and the Tigers win going away.
Playing with a chip on their shoulder in the wake of their SEC Championship shellacking, and facing a familiar QB in Jalen Hurts, Georgia stifles Oklahoma's fast-paced offense and shocks the home crowd in Norman.
Semifinals: Fiesta Bowl- #1 LSU vs. # 5 Georgia; Peach Bowl- #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
In the first semifinal, #1 LSU is stunned by Georgia. Stop laughing, we've been over this-- I know it's a stretch, but it's hard to beat a really good team twice in one season, let alone twice in three weeks. Kirby Smart is a heck of a coach, and I have to imagine he'd have his guys a lot more prepared to face LSU the second time around.
Ohio State and Clemson play the classic affair that they did in the real life playoff, and with even more fan support in Atlanta than they had in Phoenix in real life, Clemson wins the thriller.
See? New playoff system, new champion, as moving the venue of Clemson-Ohio State to a neutral (in fact, pro-Clemson) one made all the difference. And even if Georgia's playoff run again resulted in a lopsided championship, which college football traditionalist wouldn't love to see old southern rivals Clemson and Georgia for all the marbles? Regardless, I dream of a December Saturday devoted solely to 4 College Football playoff games on 4 college campuses across America. That's the good stuff.
ALTERNATE REALITY 3: THE 32-TEAM PLAYOFF
Brief refresher of the format
32 teams
All 10 Conference Champions
22 at-large teams
Split into regions, a la March Madness, with the "Regional Finals" being held at bowl sites
For instance, the "South" Region would culminate at the Alamo Bowl, the "North" at the Pinstripe Bowl, the "West" at the Holiday Bowl, and the "Southeast" at the Music City Bowl
Semifinals and Final use current format
How it all went down
So it wouldn't take forever, I just picked up the simulation at the Round of 16. I did go through the first round though, trust me.
Round Of 16 and Quarterfinals (winning teams are bolded)
Semifinals and Final (winning teams are bolded)
Navy and Minnesota upsetting Auburn and Notre Dame? A Penn State victory in Gainesville? Alabama capitalizing off yet another inevitable Georgia collapse, then asserting revenge on the same Clemson team that destroyed them last year? Oregon's defense vs. LSU's offense? A championship between the top two teams in college football? I dare you to tell me this wouldn't be more fun.
There you have it: different playoff formats might have created different champions or championship games. And even if not, they sure offer the possibility for a much more entertaining and satisfying route there.