2019 Couch Power 10, Week 12
It's the most wonderful time of the year! No really, it is. The air is crisp (and, depending on where you're reading from, possibly full of snowflakes!), the promise of turkey and stuffing is just around the corner, the leaves have turned colors and fallen, and college football is undergoing some real "changing of the guard" business.
Last Saturday didn’t see the shock upset that we’d gotten in steady supply during October, but there were some eyebrow-raising results that significantly altered the landscape of the college football season. Losses by Alabama and Penn State to underdogs (slight as they may have been), showed not only that there are new sheriffs in town in the SEC West and Big Ten West, but that not even the bluest of blue bloods are immune from the twists and turns of this season.
Most significantly, LSU’s win over Alabama threw into serious doubt the latter’s playoff qualification credentials. This means that after an 11 week run, the Saban-Dabo rule, stating that Alabama and Clemson must stay atop the rankings has finally been broken! As such, we are finally free to rank teams for all spots as we wish we could have done all season! Let’s get into it.
Just a reminder, as you are bellowing, "Daniel, you’re such a hater. Bama loses their first home game in 4 years and you drop them 7 spots?!?!?": remember that this is not a statement on who I think have the most talent and quality, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've proved on the field.
1. LSU
LSU and Joe Burrow have looked the part all season. They did when they were dropping 65+ points in consecutive weeks. They did arguably even more so when they were confounding Texas, Auburn and Florida. But if there were any lingering doubts about them being the team to beat this year, the Tigers answered them and then some with their first win over Alabama in 8 years. Burrow likely solidified his Heisman frontrunner status with a majestic outing, carving up the Bama defense like no quarterback we've seen since the days of Manziel, and LSU at this point has likely built a playoff resume that could withstand even a loss in the SEC Championship.
2. Ohio State
Ohio State was the playoff committee's inaugural #1 in 2019, and if they win the remainder of their games, there's a good chance they would be #1 heading into the playoff as well. Finishing the season with wins over Top 15 teams Penn State, Michigan and one of Minnesota or Wisconsin will (hypothetically) do that for you. That said, even in the wake of beating Maryland by 60 points-- not a hyperbole -- their resumé to date is, at best, second to LSU's.
3. Clemson
You'd think the defending champions, winners of 25 in a row, might be paid a little more attention right about now. But weirdly enough, everyone seems to be sleeping on Clemson at the moment. I'm not sure whether it's the allure of new shiny teams like LSU and Ohio State, or the fact that it's been so long since Clemson has played a worthy opponent (September 28 vs. North Carolina, in case you're wondering), but the Tigers are gonna just quietly keep doing their thing, which is beating conference opponents by absurd margins.
4. Oregon
Oregon, who had a bye week after their total destruction of USC, had to be disheartened to see themselves still ranked behind Georgia and Alabama. But, provided that it is quite likely neither of those teams will win their conference, you have to imagine the Ducks' playoff destiny is in their own hands.
5. Georgia
The Dawgs blanked a previously formidable Missouri team 27-0 over the weekend, then got their 2nd win of the week last night when the playoff committee slotted them in the Top 4 ahead of rivals Alabama. I'm still not completely sold on Georgia as a complete team; their stunning loss to South Carolina seemed to be more about exposing some shortcomings than being a bizarre fluke. But, in comparison to their fellow one-loss teams, they've got some real quality wins to make their case.
6. Minnesota
What a win for Minnesota this weekend, proving their unbeaten record was no joke by knocking off #4 Penn State, who was a favorite in Minneapolis. It was not a perfect storm of events that led to the win, either; though the Nittany Lions came close to making a play for the win down the stretch, anyone watching that game would have told you Minnesota was the better team. They were a side in desperate need of a quality win, and the playoff committee rewarded the Gophers handsomely, jumping them nearly 10 spots in the poll. The reason they still only place #6 on the more-forgiving Couch scale is because of their truly atrocious out-of-conference schedule. But fear not, Minnesota; you have proven you are not to be taken lightly.
7. Baylor
Baylor, the other Power 5 team you can't believe is still undefeated, is somewhat of the antithesis to Minnesota. They share an unimpressive out-of-conference schedule, but thanks to wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State, all of whom could be ranked at year-end, their wins to date are actually on the whole more impressive. Yet, they seem to be trending in the wrong direction. I mentioned last week that Baylor appears to just barely be clinging on to this perfect record, and that was before the Bears survived two overtimes in Fort Worth this past weekend. Like Minnesota before them, though, Baylor has a chance to put to rest any of the doubts about their quality when Oklahoma comes calling this weekend.
8. Alabama
In case you live under a rock, Alabama lost to LSU last weekend, which might turn out to be completely acceptable when we look back at this season. But the additional context has to be disturbing for Crimson Tide fans; they lost at home, as 6-point favorites, in an absolute must-win for their SEC West and playoff chances. And, more notably, up until about the 4th quarter, they got absolutely crushed. LSU's control of every unit was dominance reminiscent of Clemson's 44-16 romp in the national championship, Alabama's last loss before this. Given their approximately 40-point average margin of victory before Saturday, there can be little doubt this is still a very good team, but Bama is in the unfamiliar territory of not controlling their own postseason destiny.
9. Utah
Utah, who had a bye week after their clutch win at Washington, had to be disheartened to see themselves still ranked behind Georgia and Alabama. But, provided that it is quite likely neither of those teams will win their conference, you have to imagine the Utes' playoff destiny is in their own hands.
10. Penn State
Even though it was billed as the 2nd biggest game of the day, you could forgive Penn State for looking a little down the road past their matchup with Minnesota. After all, they were the #4 team in the country and had a date with top-ranked Ohio State in a couple weeks, after a Senior Day clash vs. now-ranked (!?!?!) Indiana. But, they lost a crucial one last weekend, whether it was a lack of focus or just genuine inferiority to their opponents. Nittany Lion fans will hope it was the former, as, even with solid wins over Michigan, Iowa, and Pittsburgh, Penn State will almost surely have to win out to keep their playoff bid alive.
Just missed: Florida, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Memphis, Auburn, Boise State