Premier League Predictions, Final Week
© Micah Veldkamp, 2019
Well, here we are. It’s the last week of the 2018-19 Premier League season. More importantly, it's the last of our Couch Premier League predictions! (At least until August.) It sure is hard to believe how fast these months, and these 37 matches, have flown by. But, though the memories of Watford being level with Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester City at the top still feel fresh in our minds, it is, well and truly, the season finale. All good things must come to an end.
Speaking of good things coming to an end, Cardiff City's time in the Premier League and Manchester United's hopes of finishing in the Top 4 both did just that in the last week. Cardiff eschewed many opportunities to get a 2nd or possibly even 3rd goal on Crystal Palace, and could not avoid defeat, making it mathematically impossible for them to catch 17th-placed Brighton. Manchester United had a fittingly atrocious result to add on to their dreadful last month of play, inexplicably drawing with Huddersfield Town, when all they needed to stay alive was beat the worst team in the Premier League. It's 6th place and Europa League football for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and the Red Devils next season.
Heading into tomorrow, there are still technically races for 4th Place and of course, for the title, though both feel like formalities. Arsenal need a miracle to oust rivals Tottenham from Champions League 2019-20 contention: they need to win, have Spurs lose, and overturn an 8-goal differential. Given all the wacky things that have happened this season, I suppose a 5-0 Arsenal win and 3-0 Tottenham loss isn't out of the question, but given the Gunners' Premier League form of late, it is far from likely. And Liverpool and Manchester City might have given us one of the highest-quality Premier League races of all time: the two sides are on pace to finish with the 3rd-best and 2nd-best Premier League seasons, respectively, in history, and are within one point of each other. But given all the excitement of how even they were all season and how feasible it was that Liverpool might finally claim their first-ever PL crown, things feel a bit anticlimactic going into tomorrow; no matter what happens at Anfield, all City need to do is defeat nearly-relegated Brighton to claim their 2nd straight title, and the way they've won their league matches recently implies it will certainly happen. Who knows, though? They do have a flair for the dramatic sometimes.
Last week, I pledged to do one better than the week before, and go 6 for 6 on my predictions. Unsurprisingly, I instead had my worst performance yet, missing five of my six, and only correctly projecting Manchester City's win over Leicester, perhaps the least brave pick of the bunch. That 1/6 blemish brings my season total through 37 matchdays to a nice round 82.5/135. Yikes.
But! No more time for making like Man U and bemoaning an atrocious end to my season, the matches are less than 12 hours away! Here are my 5 for Week 33, the last Premier League football week of the season:
Burnley vs. Arsenal
As mentioned above, if Arsenal are going to pull a miraculous Top 4 finish out of their hats, Step 1 is a win (and preferably one with a massive scoreline) over Burnley. However, as also previously mentioned, the Gunners' recent form in the Premier League indicates even a win might be a tall task. Since claiming 3rd place in the League at the beginning of April, Arsenal has won just one match, drawn one, and lost four. At this point, it seems clear that they are going all-in on the Europa League path to the Champions League, and why not? They're just win away. Yet, at the same time, you have to imagine if they would have won just 3 of the 5 Premier League matches you'd expect them to win, they wouldn't need to rely on a Europa League win as they'd be far and away in 3rd place. As for Burnley, this was a far cry from the team that finished 7th place last year, so it shouldn't be hard to imagine a loss for them in this one. Yet, the Clarets still aren't too shabby, and if Arsenal can't win their last home match of the season, why expect them to win this?
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
I promised last week that if Spurs bottled their match against Bournemouth (in which a win would have sealed Top 4), that I would include them in this week's prediction piece. Well, 2 red cards and one late goal later, here we are. The bad news for Tottenham? They're criminally shorthanded for their final match, thanks to injuries and red card suspensions, and Everton are a plucky team who would be tough to beat at full strength anyways. The good news? They're playing at their new home, and really just need to not lose by a million in order to be safe. In a dramatic and emotional week for Spurs, and with bigger things on the horizon, I think a competitive draw or loss is going to be okay with them.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Leicester City vs. Chelsea
Chelsea bucked a bad spell of form last week with a decisive win over Watford, and capitalized on shock results from Tottenham and Manchester United to officially secure a Top 4 finish and a berth in next year's Champions League. Of course, given their midweek heroics against Eintracht Frankfurt, the Blues would have also had the chance to clinch that through the Europa League Final they find themselves in. The fact that they're on secure land, and given how solid Leicester City have looked under Brendan Rodgers (they've come the closest yet to scaring Man City off of the latter's perch at the top, just this very week), it'd be tempting to project a Chelsea draw or loss here. And while any result would not surprise me, I'm rolling with Chelsea's positive momentum, and will say that in what might be star Eden Hazard's final Premier League appearance, they get one more exciting win.
The Pick: Chelsea, 3-2
Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool had their sights set on the Premier League season ever since kicking off with a 4-0 rout of West Ham back in August. Despite early predictions that it was laughable to expect anybody other than Manchester City to win, and some early month shaky form, there were several months this season where it genuinely seemed like the Reds would take their first title. As it stands, the point total they have before even playing this match would be enough to clinch the crown in any season besides last year...and this year. For, despite everything well Liverpool have done, Manchester City have done their work just the tiniest bit better, and thus the Reds will need a win today and a City draw or loss to win the League. But, what a difference 24 hours makes; on Monday night, after City were putting the finishing touches on a tense 1-0 victory over Leicester, it seemed like this was going to be a painfully trophyless year for Liverpool. Fast forward one night, when Liverpool did this, and well, now things are different. Now Liverpool have a chance to finish a club-record season, regardless of what City do, and then fight to be Kings of Europe. That's still a hell of a year. Honestly, though, Wolves are a really good side, and not the ideal final opponent an emotional, excited Liverpool. I do think today's match ends in a thrilling, goals-galore draw. But who knows, could they win, and could City really not win? Stranger things have happened...
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Manchester City
...but won't happen tomorrow. City are the title-holders AND the #1 team again for a reason. Yes, they have millions and millions of dollars worth of talent, but as we've seen with other major clubs, it's not that simple. They are so brilliantly managed by Pep Guardiola, and perhaps most importantly, are absolutely ruthless when they're in the drivers seat. They have won every single League match since retaking the Premier League lead over Liverpool back in March, and oftentimes have done so in particularly clutch fashion-- see: Vincent Kompany's game-winner against Leicester last Monday. So, though away at Brighton is not the easiest match to end on (really, the Gulls' 17th-place finish belies how tough of an out they have been for top teams), are we really going to expect anything other than a Manchester City victory, albeit a close one? This is City's title again, and there's no Steven Gerrard-slipping tomfoolery needed this time for them to deserve it.
The Pick: Manchester City, 1-0