Premier League Predictions, Week 32
© Micah Veldkamp, 2019
It’s the penultimate week of Premier League play, and more significantly, of our Couch Premier League predictions. It sure is hard to believe how fast these months, and these 36 matches, have flown by! It seems like just yesterday that Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City were flying off the starting blocks into the Premier League lead. I know that seems silly to even look back on, as the Premier League race has in actuality come down to….well, Liverpool and Manchester City.
Yes, it’s a rarity in major European leagues: 2 weeks remain, and the title still has yet to be decided. What an epic contest it’s been, and will continue to be over these final couple matches. Other races, around the Top 4 line and at the bottom of the table, have also been epic, but for the opposite reasons. Whereas City and Liverpool have both been masterfully holding serve, nobody appears interested in finishing in the Top 4 with them, and Cardiff City and Brighton have both politely declined countless opportunities to solidify safety out of the relegation zone.
In honor of these competitions at each stage, we’ll be doing our biggest preview yet: 6 matches this week, featuring the 2 title contenders, the 3 teams fighting for 4th place*, and the 2 sides fighting to avoid 18th place.
*Sorry, Tottenham. You’ve played well enough to likely be safe in the Top 4 race. If you fluff your lines against Bournemouth this week, though, we’ll be sure to include you in our preview next week! We promise!
Last week, I pledged to go 5 for 5 and reverse my fate from my 20% outing the week prior. Well, I didn’t quite get it entirely right, mistakenly thinking Manchester United would outright beat Chelsea rather than play to a draw. However, it was a great week on the whole, getting 4 of the 5 outcomes correct, and nailing scorelines for both Brighton-Newcastle and City-Burnley. I’m gonna give myself a 4.5/5 mark, bringing my total through 36 match days to a nice round 81.5/129.
No more time for finagling credit to myself, the matches are less than 12 hours away! Here are my 6 for Week 32:
Cardiff City vs. Crystal Palace
The drama in this one is that Cardiff City currently sit 4 points out of the safe 17th-place spot, and absolutely need a win to stay alive. Sure, they could technically keep the dream afloat with a draw and a Brighton loss the next day, but the Bluebirds would prefer to not play those odds, considering they finish their season with a trip to Old Trafford. Complicating their quest is that Crystal Palace, while lacking the star power of a top side, are consistently some of the toughest and most energetic opponents, and it would be entirely unlike them to lay down and not fight for a victory. Any other time in the season, this would be a no-brainer victory for Palace. Even though Cardiff’s momentum gives them an edge, they haven’t exhibited enough killer instinct for me to feel good about projecting a win.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Chelsea vs. Watford
Chelsea are currently sitting in 4th place, which, despite being just a 1 point lead, is sitting relatively pretty, given that none of them, Arsenal, or Manchester United have any interest in claiming that spot for themselves. (Heck, is it too late to just gift it to Wolverhampton?) A Chelsea win could be a vital step closer to securing Champions League qualification for next year. However, two aspects render such a result more difficult. For one, Watford, as evidence all throughout the season, can punch above their weight and are not an easy out. Secondly, the Europa League, which offers a path into the much more illustrious Champions League, is still very much in play for the Blues. They scored midweek in an away draw at Frankfurt, and return home for the 2nd leg of the semifinal next week. Chelsea's been doing this thing down the stretch where they draw matches they should win; I'm going to go out on a limb and say the trend continues this week.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Huddersfield vs. Manchester United
It's right now or never for Manchester United and their 2019-20 Champions League hopes. They had two huge matches at home against rivals Manchester City and then against fellow Top 4 competitors Chelsea, and walked away with 1 point from 6. They're not in Champions League (or Europa League) contention. Contrary to what their recent form would suggest, they need to start winning now, and even if they do, it might be too little too late. Fortunately, the rapidly backsliding Red Devils could not have picked a better opponent to get out of their doldrums than the record-breaking futile Huddersfield side. They'll almost certainly get a win to at least keep the Top 4 goal in play. Will it be enough?
The Pick: Manchester United, 3-0
Arsenal vs. Brighton and Hove Albion
This won't be the most-watched or most-discussed match of the weekend, but it may be the most intriguing, as it features two clubs in two very different dramatic fights. Arsenal are one point beneath the Top 4 line, and are hoping to leapfrog London rivals Chelsea. Brighton are 4 points above the relegation zone, and are hoping to hold off a late push from Cardiff City to stay in the Premier League for next year. Brighton arguably needs a result from this more than Arsenal do, as the Gunners, like Chelsea, still have Europa League triumph as a very real route to Champions League qualification next year. Still, despite this fact AND the fact that Arsenal have clearly gone all in on Europa League and fluffed their lines in the Premier League remarkably, I think they will want to close their Premier League account at Emirates Stadium on a high note.
The Pick: Arsenal, 2-1
Newcastle vs. Liverpool
It's been a bad couple of days for Liverpool. All was well this time last week: they were fresh off a celebratory rout of Huddersfield, shifted the pressure back to Manchester City in the Premier League race, and had a Champions League semifinal to look forward to. Then, on Sunday, City defeated Burnley by the smallest of margins (putting them ahead once more in the table), and 3 days later, the Reds were routed in Barcelona, likely ending their Champions League hopes, too. Liverpool need a win in the worst way, so common logic states they will get one. The problem with that is that Newcastle has a knack for beating good teams at home (see: Manchester City, 2019; and Liverpool, every year). The Magpies have a manager who knows Liverpool's style well and will be ready to face them. And, essentially being out of the Champions League could have the opposite effect of inspiration on Liverpool: they could let Barcelona beat them twice. For these reasons, I'm predicting perhaps the biggest upset all year: Newcastle will stun Liverpool, and effectively bring an end to this epic Premier League race.
The Pick: Newcastle, 2-0
Manchester City vs. Leicester City
All English eyes will be on the Etihad Stadium on Monday night, as Manchester City host Leicester in what is sure to be a cracking affair. Strangely enough, it's Man City that will be looking to reverse the fortunes of the first leg, after a Christmastime stunner from Leicester last time out. For any other side, in any other time of the year, this matchup would have upset special written all over it. But not Manchester City. Not now. There's 2 more wins to be had, and a 2nd-straight Premier League title is theirs-- City is locked in, and when they want to win, there's not a team in England that can beat them.
The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1