College Basketball Couch Power 10 (Jan. 27th)
Picking up where the 2018 Basketball Couch Power 10 pieces left off...by reminding you that Duke has in fact lost a game.
Welcome to the first College Basketball Power Ranking of the year! With Clemson and Alabama again facing off for the national title in College Football, Rafael Nadal losing another Grand Slam final, and the Patriots likely winning the Super Bowl, everyday Americans are hurting deeply from sports so far in 2019. So, a hopeful nation turns to basketball to save their happiness.
If you are just now tuning in to the college basketball season, let's get you caught up. It hasn't been quite the wild ride it was in 2017-18 yet; for instance, unlike last year, there were a couple unbeaten teams entering the new year. That has changed, to be fair, with previously unbeaten Michigan and Virginia both losing last weekend, one in a major upset and the other in one of the most hyped games of the season. Also unlike last year, there has been a separation at the top between the Top 5 or 6 teams and the rest of the field, which we'll get to.
That being said, there has been no shortage of exciting moments in this season, as we near its midway point. Thanks to early-season tournaments and inter-conference challenges, we've already seen about 8 games between teams currently ranked in the AP Top 10. #1 Tennessee lost a classic to Kansas, but beat Gonzaga in a thriller. Gonzaga lost a thriller to Tennessee, but beat Duke in a classic. Duke lost that one to Gonzaga, but also blew the doors off of Kentucky. Kentucky got their doors blown off by Duke, but also dominated North Carolina. North Carolina got dominated by Kentucky, but also blew the doors off of Gonzaga. So and so forth...
So what does this all mean? There are some clear top teams, but when those at the top are all notorious for unexpectedly early March exits, we're in for a fun next few months. Here is my best attempt at who the true Top 10 currently is:
1. Tennessee (18-1)
It feels pretty surreal to see Tennessee as the #1 team in basketball (not that they're good enough to be a "Football school," but their fans sure seem to think they are), and everyday fans may be skeptical, but at this point it's deserved. The sole blemish on their record to date is a neutral-site overtime loss to Kansas, and they have multiple noteworthy wins to boot, such as Louisville and Gonzaga. Are they the team with the highest ceiling? No. But they are an experienced, tough, balanced team.
2. Duke (17-2)
Who does have the highest ceiling, then? It pains my Tar Heel heart to say it, but this year, that unquestionably is Duke, who as you might have heard by having ESPN on at least once in the last 4 months, boasts the top 3 rated high school recruits of 2017-18 in their starting lineup. The scary thing is that trifecta is only part of the story, as they also boast a solid supporting cast, including fellow freshman Tre Jones running the point, and a junior Marques Bolden, who has finally become a legitimate post presence. The inexperience still shows for this side at times, such as when they were upset by Syracuse on their home floor just last week, or simply outmuscled and outsmarted by Gonzaga a couple months back. But, there's no question that this team will be favored to iron those kinks out come March and April.
3. Virginia (18-1)
To date, Virginia of 2018-19 looks about like the last 5 Virginia teams under Tony Bennett: phenomenal defense, extremely well-coached, mature, fairly inconsistent offensively. There is absolutely no shame in a 2-point loss at Duke (this year), but it does show that perhaps there's a more obvious ceiling to the Cavaliers this year, whereas nearly the same side was able to steal a win in Cameron last season. Still, after blowing through an extremely unimpressive out-of-conference schedule, the Cavs have once again proved their legitimacy in the ACC season by humiliating the likes of Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson.
4. Michigan (19-1)
The Wolverines' 10-point loss at Wisconsin had a bit of a "long time coming" feel to it, as their form (especially on offense) has dipped significantly over the last month. Still, beating the last 3 national champions by an average of 22 points has to count for something, right? In addition to their takedowns of Villanova and North Carolina, Michigan owns impressive wins over Purdue and Indiana. The most recent win over the Hoosiers was so sound, it might spell a return to their early-season dominance.
5. Gonzaga (19-2)
It's time to accept Gonzaga as a perennial contender. They haven't reached the top of the podium yet, but like Villanova, they've had enough impressive postseason performances over the last 4 years to justify losing the "tournament flameout" label. Are these Zags as good as the national runners-up two years ago? It remains to be seen, but though losses to Tennessee and North Carolina show their problematic lack of depth, their wins over Washington and especially Duke show just how good this side can be at their balanced best.
6. Kentucky (16-3)
I did not expect Kentucky to crack my first Top 10 of the season. Not when they opened the year by losing to Duke by what felt like 55 points, not when they lost at home to Seton Hall, and not when they opened up the SEC season by losing to Alabama. But since those losses, they've claimed wins over North Carolina and Louisville, and have now won 3 straight against ranked teams. The Wildcats might just finally be living up to their potential.
7. Michigan State (18-3)
I was all prepared to have the Spartans in my Top 4-- as most media pundits do-- and then at the time of this writing, they got pasted by Purdue. Of course, one loss to a decent team is not a referendum on a season, particularly when Michigan State already beat Purdue a few weeks back. But such a shellacking did cause me to more closely examine their record, and honestly, as understandable as their losses have been (Kansas, Louisville, Purdue), they've beaten nobody of note outside the Big Ten, and their Big Ten schedule has not yet included rivals Michigan. So, while I still would not be surprised in the least to see Izzo and co. run the table in the conference again, it might be a little bit of time before they earn a higher place in the rankings.
8. North Carolina (15-4)
True to last year's (and really, most of the last several years') form, North Carolina is an erratic bunch. At their best, they've been really, really good, absolutely spanking then-#1 Gonzaga, then-Top 10 Virginia Tech, and then-Top 15 UCLA and NC State. At their worst, they've been almost laughably bad, losing to 9-loss Texas, and getting curbstomped by Michigan and Louisville, the latter at home. Because of the tough schedule they've played, and the fact that Good Carolina has been more prevalent than Bad Carolina in recent weeks, they're a Top 10 side for now. But their potential to crash and burn seems about as legitimate as their potential to be a Final Four team.
9. Marquette (18-3)
I will admit, I have not watched a minute of Marquette basketball this year. Here's what I've learned by looking at their schedule: their losses are vs. Kansas, at Indiana and at St. John's. The latter two aren't phenomenal, but I'd say losing two road games to likely tournament teams is offset by wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin.
10. Nevada (19-1)
Nevada is the UCF of college basketball so far. They were a midmajor who found postseason success last season, and return a ton of talent this season, so why wouldn't they be ranked highly? Problem is, they've played virtually nobody. They own wins over the #2-4 teams in the Pac-12, but considering the dumpster fire the Pac-12 is at the moment, that's not exactly worth writing home about. To make matters worse, their loss is a 30-point one, to....New Mexico. So, yes, based on potential and record, they get a Top 10 spot for now, but consider me highly skeptical of how good this Wolfpack team truly is.
Just missed: Virginia Tech, Kansas, Houston, Villanova, North Carolina State, freshman sensation Coby White
Bonus: #1 Seed Predictions!
SOUTH (Louisville): Tennessee
EAST (Washington, D.C.): Duke
MIDWEST (Kansas City): Michigan
WEST (Anaheim): Gonzaga