Who Gets Into The Playoff If Everyone Loses?
The Ultimate Chaos Theory
As we approach the final weekend of college football, there’s an air of inevitability hovering over the usual mayhem. Granted, there’s been an air of inevitability hanging over the whole season; it’s been evident since Day 1 that we will almost surely see Alabama winning it all, and almost surely they’ll face Clemson as the last stop on the express to the College Football Playoff podium. As it pertains to this week, most major conference championships look to be merely procedural, with mismatches abound. The only top-notch showdown is of course in Atlanta for the SEC title, where Alabama meets #4 Georgia. But can even a Top 4 Bulldogs side come close to stopping Bama? It remains to be seen, but the regular season offered very few indicators that it is likely.
So, it seems a foregone conclusion that we’re headed for a playoff of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, who’s sitting pretty at #5 behind Georgia and would leap them with a win and a Bulldog loss. [The Sooners probably have a fairly slim margin over #6 Ohio State, but given that the former is already ahead and face a higher-ranked opponent than the Buckeyes in their conference championship, it’s safe to assume they’d be in with a win.]
BUT….
What if it didn’t need to happen that way?
What if this weekend went full chaos?
I’m not talking about what if Oklahoma loses to Texas, which is a very possible outcome; all that would do is put Ohio State in the playoff. I’m not talking about what if Georgia does beat Alabama, which is a somewhat possible outcome; all that would do is likely put 2 SEC teams in, or if they really put a hurting on the Crimson Tide, it’d put both Oklahoma and Ohio State in. I’m not talking about what if Clemson capitulates to Pittsburgh, which would be by far the most stunning result of the year; that’s not even in the realm of possibility, and besides, it would likely also just knock the Tigers behind Ohio State and Oklahoma.
Most people think the wildest chaos that could happen is a Georgia win, and/or both Oklahoma and Ohio State losing. The latter would leave the committee likely deciding between a non-champion from the SEC and an undefeated Central Florida side, who you know the old fogies would hate to see in the postseason. But I’m not even talking about that.
I’m talking, what if college football absolutely loses its shit? Here’s what happens:
At about 3:30 PM, Texas beats Oklahoma for the 2nd time this season, leaving the Big XII with a 3-loss champion and a 2-loss runner-up.
At about 7:15 PM, Memphis gets revenge in the AAC Championship, and stuns a UCF team missing their star quarterback.
At about 7:30 PM. Alabama crowns their perfect season with a comfortable victory over East rivals, #4 Georgia
At about 11:15 PM, Clemson finishes coasting to a 63-14 win over 7-5 Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship
And at approximately 11:30 PM, Northwestern pulls off a stunner in the Big Ten championship, exploiting an inconsistent Ohio State defense
Sure, that still gives us undefeated teams at #s 1-3, with Alabama followed by Clemson and Notre Dame. But it also gives us a 3-loss Big XII champion, a 4-loss Big Ten champion, a 3-loss Pac-12 champion and no Power Five candidates with fewer than 2 losses. Who on earth would be the 4th team in that scenario? Let’s examine the candidates:
2-loss Georgia
Current Playoff rank: #4
One might think Georgia is best-positioned for the playoffcalypse. They are, after all, in the Top 4 as of now, and if everyone behind them were to lose, it would make sense to have them keep their standing. Plus, their sole losses on the season would be to #1 Alabama and on the road at Top 15 LSU. Not shabby.
Conversely, could the committee really justify 2 SEC teams if the non-champion has 2 losses? Last year’s inclusion of Georgia and Alabama both was predicated on the fact that Alabama, while not winning a conference title, had just 1 loss to its name, and had spent most of the season atop the rankings. Furthermore, Alabama would almost surely be the #1 seed in the scenario, meaning the first playoff matchup would be….a rematch of Alabama and Georgia. The committee is smart enough to know that game might bring good fan turnout, but likely translates to horrible TV numbers.
2-loss Oklahoma
Current Playoff rank: #5
The Sooners aren't a terrible candidate, either. Despite playing virtually no defense all season, and despite missing out on the Big XII title in this scenario, they are still an 11-win team that won the conference's regular season. They have a possible Heisman winner at QB, they're just one week removed from a road win at West Virginia, and perhaps most importantly of all, they will have only lost to one team all year, Big XII champions Texas.
That being said, when your signature win is 8-win West Virginia, you don't have the most firm foundation to stand on. And it can't be overstated just how bad that defense is. It may not seem to be a huge deal, but when the committee is making a determination on who the best 4 teams in the country are, they want to see a well-balanced football team, not one that routinely wins games 59-56.
2-loss Ohio State
Current playoff rank: #6
For the 3rd straight year, Ohio State has proved to be a bit of an enigma for the playoff committee. Two years ago, they were a 1-loss team with no conference championship appearance, but with some of the best wins in the country. Last season, they were a 2-loss team, with an embarrassing loss to Iowa on their resume, but they managed to win the Big Ten. This year, they're somewhere in between. Even if they were to get upset by Northwestern, they finished the regular season 11-1, and won arguably the hardest division in college football. They, too, have a Heisman-level quarterback and an offense that soars nearly as high as Oklahoma’s. Their massive win over Michigan and victory at Penn State have to at least offset losses to Purdue and Northwestern, especially if the latter is, uh, the Big Ten champion.
Conversely, though, their defense is nearly as poor as Oklahoma’s, save for the startling exception against Michigan. Furthermore, after the Penn State and Michigan wins, there’s not a whole lot to like from their schedule; the Buckeyes should have lost to Maryland, and could have lost to Minnesota and Nebraska. Considering they already sit behind the Bulldogs and the Sooners in the rankings, and their opponent is lower-ranked than Georgia’s and Oklahoma’s, it would take a real pasting of those two (and a tough, hard-fought loss to Northwestern) for them to have a chance at backing into the playoff. Furthermore, my unbiased housemate and Grand Rapids native Eric says they suck.
2-loss Michigan
Current playoff ranking: #7
There’s no WAY a team who isn’t even in their conference championship and who just lost by 5 million could get into the playoff, you say. But the fact is, in this scenario at least, the Wolverines have the best-looking resume of the 2-loss teams. At Notre Dame and at Ohio State are easily more understandable losses than Purdue and Northwestern, or Texas twice, or even LSU and Alabama. And when you also have dominant wins over the rest of the Big Ten East and Wisconsin and a victory over Big Ten champions Northwestern, it gets easier to see the Ohio State performance as a fluke. The committee already came out and boldly declared Jim Harbaugh’s men had the best defense in the country. Maybe they want to give that shellshocked unit another chance to prove themselves.
That being said, there’s no WAY a team who isn’t even in their conference championship and who just lost by 5 million could get into the playoff. That last game, flukish though it may be, left too bad an impression on everyone. It’s doubtful the committee will want to put themselves in a position where they have to explain including a team who just gave up 62 points in their biggest game of the season.
1-loss Central Florida
Current playoff ranking: #8
On the one hand, this is a team that has won 24 straight, won their conference last year, won their bowl game last year and would just now be losing for the first time in 2 calendar years thanks to an injury to their star quarterback. It’s not hard to justify putting the Golden Knights in the playoffs, even with a conference championship loss.
Yet, even if UCF wins, they have a massive uphill battle to make the Final 4, thanks to big-name bias by the committee. So it’s near-impossible to imagine a scenario where Central Florida loses to Memphis and the committee still admits them into the main show. I’m not arguing it’s just. But it’s the way it is.
3-loss Pac-12 Champion
Washington and Utah’s track records are similar enough that it feels wrong to argue one is considerably better-positioned than the other, though it is notable that the Huskies are in the cusp of the Top 10. Whoever wins tomorrow’s matchup gives the committee the chance to put yet another Power 5 conference champion, and avoid having a record-low 2 conference champions in the playoff. Washington has a valid non-conference loss in Atlanta to Auburn, and of course the big win last week as Washington State to boost their credibility. Utah didn’t offer much in the way of big conference wins, but non-conference victories over BYU and possible MAC champion Northern Illinois help a little, and losses to Washington and Washington State are more than understandable.
But for a committee that’s never even put a 2-loss team in the playoff, making the jump to a 3-loss team seems pretty drastic, even as such drastic circumstances as this. Even with a conference title, and the 4-10 spots crumbling around them, it’s tough to look at the season either of the Pac-12 contenders had and make a good case that they’re a Top 4 team.
3-loss Texas
Current playoff ranking: #14
Even at 3 losses, Texas could be better positioned than you might think. As mentioned above, the committee might be tempted to clear through the chaos and handpick a Power 5 conference winner, and if they were to beat Oklahoma a 2nd time, you have to imagine they’re better situated than even Washington. 2 wins over Oklahoma, a win over Iowa State, a close loss to West Virginia in a game so good it feels like a win, an exciting young QB, and a big personality coach? That’s a recipe for success.
But again…it’s hard to foresee a committee that’s gagged at the thought of a 2-loss Big Ten winner making the playoff to do a turnaround this year and invite a 3-loss Big XII team. Those big wins (and virtual tie vs. WVU) are hampered by losses to 5-7 Maryland and 6-6 Oklahoma State. They’re decent on both sides of the ball, but neither unit is good enough to command must-watch television.
So who gets the nod? It’s a lot easier to buy the negatives of any of the candidates in this scenario than it is to buy the positives. But when the committee weighs the quality of the teams, the records, the resumes, and frankly, the audience appeal….I think there’s a clear winner:
Oklahoma.
For a team that hasn’t looked the part of championship contender since, I don’t know, Week 3, it may seem a surprising choice. But think about it: they were the sole #1 in the Big XII throughout a chaotic regular season, and they only lost to 1 team all year. I think much of the deliberation would center around the Sooners and Georgia, understandably so, as the committee has thought highly of both since the first iteration of the playoff rankings. But, as legitimate a claim as Georgia might have to the #4 spot, I just can’t see the bigwigs opting for a SEC rematch in the Cotton Bowl (particularly one where everyone already knows the first result would repeat itself) over the chance to have Tua vs. Kyler, or to have the Big XII vs. the SEC West in Dallas.
My best guess at how the post-playoffcalypse rankings would play out:
ALABAMA* [13-0]
CLEMSON* [13-0]
NOTRE DAME* [12-0]
OKLAHOMA* [11-2]
Georgia [11-2]
Texas [10-3]
Washington [10-3]
Ohio State [11-2]
Michigan [10-2]
Florida [9-3]
Let the craziness begin!