Best Bets: AFC and NFC Championships
Conference Championship weekend is here! We’re down to four teams, and this Sunday will decide who plays in the Super Bowl. Before I get to this week’s games, a major thank you is in order for the Vikings who salvaged my record with the miraculous Stefon Diggs touchdown. Since there are only two NFL games this week, I’ll look elsewhere for betting value as well; on Saturday night, the Warriors travel to Houston in what is likely the battle between the NBA’s top two teams, and the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight championships will be on the line in a pair of title fights at UFC 220. As always, all odds are courtesy of Bovada (as of 1/19/2018).
AFC Championship: Jaguars vs. Patriots (-8)
My three losses during these playoffs have come in games featuring the Jaguars or the Patriots. These teams have been tough to bet on because they have consistently defied expectations this season (and the Patriots have been doing it for almost 20 years). This matchup features two teams that have the ability to exploit each other’s weaknesses. Jacksonville has the second-best adjusted sack rate in the league, only behind Pittsburgh; their pass rush will match up well against New England’s average pass blocking offensive line. However, the Patriots’ offensive line has been proficient in run-blocking this season, while the Jaguars rank 26th against the run on defense, according to DVOA. New England’s defense is even worse against the run, ranking 30th according to DVOA, which provides an opportunity for Jacksonville to run the ball themselves with stud rookie RB Leonard Fournette. New England’s offense presents a mismatch of their own through their personnel groupings. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has pointed out how the Jaguars defense has been elite against formations with three wide receivers, but has dropped off when teams replace that third receiver with a running back or tight end. The Patriots can exploit this, since they frequently line up with only two receivers; their offensive scheme is an inherent mismatch for the Jaguars. On top of all the strategical factors this game presents, Tom Brady hurt his throwing hand in practice this week, which is a major concern for New England. Based on both team’s defensive weaknesses against the run and Brady’s injury, I’d expect both teams to rely on their running backs to move the ball in what might be a closer game than fans would expect the Patriots to be in. Although New England will probably win this game, I’d take the Jaguars since the spread is more than a touchdown.
Pick: Jaguars +8
NFC Championship: Vikings vs. Eagles (+3.5)
Some fans have said that the Vikings have become the team of destiny after last week’s miracle, and that they’ll finally win that elusive Lombardi Trophy in front of their home crowd in Minnesota on February 4th. They’ll have to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia first to accomplish that, though. The Vikings and Eagles feature two of the best defenses in the NFL, and arguably, the two most complete defenses in the NFL. Although neither defense features a star with the type of exposure as Von Miller and J.J. Watt, both teams have built defenses around multiple unsung stars, such as Everson Griffen and Harrison Smith for Minnesota, and Fletcher Cox and Malcolm Jenkins for Philadelphia. The game will likely be low-scoring and determined by which team can break through on offense. Without Carson Wentz, the Eagles’ offense has been lackluster, while the Vikings have somehow managed to sustain one of the best passing offenses (third in DVOA) despite multiple quarterback injuries. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have been excellent this season, providing reliable options for Case Keenum. While Minnesota will likely lean on their receiver tandem to move the ball, the Eagles will look to Jay Ajayi to take pressure off Nick Foles. However, Minnesota will likely plan for this and stack the box against the Eagles and play man coverage. If they’re successful, the game will fall in the hands of Foles, which should make Eagles fans nervous, given how he’s played at times this season. The spread opened at 3.5 and moved down to 3 at most sportsbooks during the week. Bovada is typically slower with line changes than the sharp offshore sportsbooks, so I’d encourage bettors to wait and see if they’ll move the line down to 3 as well, where I think lies value in picking the Vikings. I predict that Minnesota wins this game, based on the fact that they’ll likely have more weapons for the Eagles defense to monitor, so for the purpose of making a pick, I’ll lean toward the Vikings with the higher spread.
Pick: Lean Vikings -3.5
BONUS
Warriors vs. Rockets (+4)
NBA fans should be excited as we finally get to see the two best teams match up with healthy stars (Draymond Green is currently listed as Probable to play with a shoulder injury). Both the Rockets and Warriors have elite offenses; this game will show off some of the best shooters in the NBA. While the Warriors have the diverse offensive talent to construct a multi-faceted offense, the Rockets have relied on getting to the free throw line to complement their shooting ability. Behind James Harden’s ridiculous 8.9 free throws per game, the Rockets lead the NBA in free throws per 100 possessions. This could create a problem on defense for the Warriors if Draymond Green isn’t 100% healthy. Golden State has been a turnover-prone team on offense as well, averaging almost 16 per game, which makes them fourth in the NBA. If Houston can take advantage of turnovers, they can win this game at home. The teams that manage to beat the Warriors usually do so by scoring on the Warriors’ turnovers and rebounding the ball against the Warriors’ smaller lineup. The Rockets have the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA and should limit second chance points for the Warriors. Despite these minor advantages for the Rockets, Golden State is still a once-in-a-generation team that has been bucking the traditional rules of gambling for a few years now, so it's never ideal to pick against them. However, my model has this game closer to a pick ‘em, so considering the advantages the Rockets could take in this game, I’ll lean toward Houston plus the points. Bettors should monitor line moves closer to game time, though, that would signal sharp action on either side of this game.
Pick: Rockets +4
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
This Saturday’s UFC card features one of the most exciting storylines in recent memory, as the up-and-coming Francis Ngannou has catapulted his way into a shot at the heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic. Ngannou comes off a fight where he practically beheaded Alastair Overeem with a left uppercut in a first-round knockout. Miocic has won his last four fights by first-round knockout, including his win of the heavyweight title over Fabricio Werdum and two title defenses. Ngannou leads Miocic in the majority of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics statistics (a must-follow on Twitter for MMA fans), such as distance knockdown rate, which measures the rate of a fighter’s knockdowns at standing position at distance from his opponent (i.e. how all fights begin). Ngannou has a rate of 5.4%, more than double the UFC average. However, these statistics are built on a much smaller sample size than those of Miocic, as there have been far fewer fights of Ngannou’s to analyze. Ngannou’s last fight was a little over a month ago, whereas Miocic has had almost nine months to prepare for Saturday’s bout. Miocic comes in as the underdog which is likely a product of recency bias, given Ngannou’s knockout of the year last month. Ngannou could be the UFC’s next big star, but I’ll take underdog odds with Miocic, who has the advantage in experience and rest. Bettors may want to consider parlaying Miocic with Daniel Cormier, who defends his light heavyweight title against Volkan Oezdemir, in what will likely be an easy title defense for Cormier. The odds improve from Stipe Miocic straight up at +145 to +218 when parlayed with Cormier, but I’ll stick with Miocic to win what should be an exhilarating, if not short-lived, fight.
Pick: Stipe Miocic +145
Last week: 2-2
NFL Playoffs: 5-3
Overall: 14-16-1
Bonus: 3-3