Best Bets: NFL Playoffs Preview

After a successful bowl season in which I went 6-0 on best picks for the office college bowl pool, we’ve made it into the most exciting time of year for gamblers: the NFL playoffs. This week we have four Wild Card playoff games as well as the college football championship game, but let’s start by breaking down the futures market. As always, all odds are courtesy of Bovada (as of 1/4/2018).

NFL Playoff Futures

This year marks a major discrepancy in strength between the teams in the playoffs for each conference, with the AFC fielding much weaker teams. With any NFC team facing a murderer’s row of contenders and the possibility of facing the Vikings in Minnesota for the Super Bowl, bettors are better off looking for the AFC champion in the futures market. There are two teams in the AFC that stand above the rest as Super Bowl contenders: the Patriots and the Steelers. Both teams have coaches (Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin, respectively) and quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger) that have won the Super Bowl before, and both teams have first round byes. The difference in value lies in the fact that the public loves to bet on the Patriots, driving the price up so that bettors must lay some juice to bet them to win the AFC. The Steelers make the better bet if Antonio Brown is healthy enough to contribute, especially because they’re the team that is most likely to take advantage of the Patriots defensive problems in a potential AFC championship matchup.

Pick: Steelers to win AFC +260

Titans vs. Chiefs (-8.5)

The first game of the playoffs gives bettors a difficult matchup to handicap, because although the Chiefs are clearly the better team in this game, they’ve played inconsistently all season. Kansas City started the season on a five-game win streak, only to go 1-6 in its next seven games. The Chiefs then won their last four games to win the division and earn home field advantage in the first round against the Titans, who’ve played inconsistently themselves. Tennessee has lost three of its last four games, and although they travel to Arrowhead Stadium, one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL, they do hold one major matchup advantage against the Chiefs; Kansas City has the worst rushing defense in the league according to DVOA, while the Titans’ rushing offense ranks eighth. Although starter DeMarco Murray isn’t playing this week, Tennessee has a capable backup in Derrick Henry and one of the best rushing quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota. This advantage, along with the high point spread, are two reasons why bettors should lean toward Tennessee on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Lean Titans + 8.5

Falcons vs. Rams (-6)

The Los Angeles Rams have made an outstanding turnaround this season, rebounding from a 4-12 season last year to win their first division title since 2003. They will host the defending NFC Champions on Saturday night when Atlanta comes into town, along with reigning MVP QB Matt Ryan. Ryan leads one of the league’s better offenses, albeit not the same elite unit that led them to the Super Bowl last year, against the Rams’ stingy pass defense. Los Angeles ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate, largely thanks to Aaron Donald, who leads all defensive tackles with 11 sacks this year. However, the Falcons lead the NFL in third down percentage on offense, so the Rams may have more trouble than usual getting their defense off the field this weekend. Perhaps the main factor behind this efficient unit is human mismatch Julio Jones, who, along with Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown, is the among the best wide receivers of this decade. The connection between Ryan and Jones will keep the Falcons in the game with a chance to win against a stacked Rams squad. The Rams offense ranks among the league’s best behind RB Todd Gurley, but the inexperience from sophomore QB Jared Goff could be a factor against a Falcons team that is tired of hearing about a Super Bowl hangover. My model has this spread closer to three points, as the Falcons have been generally underrated all season by the public. The best move for bettors would be to wait for the line to move up to seven, but for the purpose of the column, I’ll back the Falcons with the current spread.

Pick: Falcons +6

Bills vs. Jaguars (-9)

This might come as a surprise to some football fans, but despite their feel-good playoff qualification, the Buffalo Bills haven’t actually played a whole lot of good football this season. They somehow amassed nine wins, despite benching Tyrod Taylor in the middle of the season for no apparent reason, which resulted in five interceptions from backup Nathan Peterman as they were obliterated by the Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers also finished 9-7, but didn’t make the playoffs). Buffalo’s rushing defense ranks amongst the worst in the league in DVOA, and Jacksonville’s strategy for a successful offensive performance has been to give the ball to outstanding rookie RB Leonard Fournette to avoid putting the game in the hands of QB Blake Bortles. Fournette is likely to have a heavy workload on Sunday afternoon, and he gives the Jaguars an advantage on offense. Jacksonville’s advantage on defense comes courtesy of the best passing defense in football. The Jags will have three starters on defense for the AFC’s Pro Bowl team: DE Calais Campbell and CBs A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. This doesn’t bode well for the Bills, who, despite trading for WR Kelvin Benjamin mid-season, have one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL. In addition to the poor matchups, LeSean McCoy is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game; without him, the Bills don’t have much of an offense at all. Bettors should feel comfortable laying the points in what has potential to be a mauling by the Jaguars.

Pick: Jaguars -9

Panthers vs. Saints (-7)

Carolina plays New Orleans for the third time this year and they look to avenge their season sweep in the final game of the wild card round. The Saints boast this season’s best running back tandem in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, resulting in the top ranked rushing offense by DVOA and the second ranked overall offense, only behind New England. Although the Panthers have lost twice to the Saints, they still have had impressive wins (on the road against the Patriots and at home against the Vikings) that show that they can beat anyone. Their defense is suited to slow down New Orleans’ vaunted rushing attack; they have the sixth ranked rushing defense by DVOA, and their defensive line ranks second in power success according to Football Outsiders. If the spread stays at seven points at the least, the Panthers provide value for bettors since it is so hard to beat the same opponent three times in one season, especially when that opponent is another playoff team. New Orleans has a mediocre rushing defense, so if Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey can move the ball on the ground, the Panthers will likely stay in this game throughout.

Pick: Panthers +7

College Football Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia (+4.5)

At long last, the grand finale to the college football season is here, featuring an all-SEC National Championship matchup. Georgia won an instant classic Rose Bowl last week against Oklahoma, while Alabama dominated the defending champion Clemson Tigers. Georgia and Alabama feature two of the best offenses in the nation; both Jake Fromm of the Bulldogs and Jalen Hurts of the Tide rank within the top ten quarterbacks in QBR according to ESPN. Georgia stands out with its talented running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, who demolished Oklahoma’s defense last week. They’ll face a much tougher defense against Alabama this week, as the Crimson Tide have the top ranked rushing defense by S&P+. Despite Alabama’s defensive strength, the one area they’ve slightly struggled in, relative to their talent level, is passing down situations. Passing downs are defined by Football Outsiders as second down with eight or more yards to go or third/fourth down with five or more yards to go. Alabama ranks outside the top 25 in that category in S&P+, which means Georgia’s defense will have the opportunity to get off the field if they can hold Alabama to minimal gains on first down. But each team is obviously amongst the nation’s elite due to their many strengths, which will likely make for a close game, favoring bettors who take the points. Look for Georgia to give Alabama a much tougher matchup than Clemson did in the Sugar Bowl, with a high possibility of the game being decided in the last couple possessions.

Pick: Georgia +4.5

Overall record against the spread: 8-13-1

Bonus record: 3-3

College bowl pool record: 6-0