Best Bets: Thanksgiving Edition

After (at long last) a winning week for Best Bets, it’s time for one of the best football weeks of the year! Thanksgiving week includes some of the best college rivalries and three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, so to celebrate, I’m including an extra pick in this week’s column. The Giants and Vikings both covered last Sunday, and hopefully the games on Thanksgiving will give us one more thing to be thankful for. It’s a bit early in the week to rely on betting trends, so I’ll lean on matchups a bit more to find value (All odds courtesy of Bovada as of 11/21/2017).

Vikings vs. Lions (+3)

The Vikings visit the Lions on Thanksgiving for their second matchup of the year, after Detroit won the first in Minneapolis. Minnesota comes off what was perhaps their best win of the season against the Rams last Sunday. Their superb rushing defense will stymie the Lions’ 29th ranked rushing offense by DVOA, so Detroit will have to rely on their passing game to score against the Vikings. The most intriguing matchup storyline in this game is each team’s receiver duo, both of which ranks amongst the best in the league. Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, and Golden Tate all rank in the top ten receivers in DVOA this year. Matthew Stafford will have to utilize his playmaking receivers to make up for the disadvantage their rushing attack presents. The Lions offense is inconsistent, but their defense can keep them in games long enough for Stafford to make a couple otherworldly throws to give them a chance to win. The Lions are the home underdog on a short week, so the value would typically be on them, especially since they have the weapons to keep the game closer than expected.

Pick: Lions +3

Saints vs. Rams (-2.5)

In what is shaping up to be the best game of the week, the Saints travel to Los Angeles this Sunday to face the Rams. New Orleans is coming off a thrilling overtime victory over the Redskins, while the Rams suffered a disappointing loss to Minnesota. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara make up the best running back tandem in the league, leading the Saints to the number one rushing offense by DVOA. The Rams rank first in overall defense by DVOA, but rank 20th against the run, so the Saints have a rare mismatch against one of the NFL’s premier defenses. Breaking down this matchup further, the Rams are one of the worst teams at open field tackling (as noted in last week’s column) while the Saints have one of the best playmakers in space this season in Kamara. On the other side of the ball, although the Saints’ defense has struggled against the run, they’ve been able to generate pressure on their opponents’ quarterbacks and shut down receivers behind stand-out rookie Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore can play this Sunday after leaving the game against the Redskins with an injury, the Saints will be equipped to handle the Rams’ effective passing offense. The spread at 2.5 favors bettors on the Rams’ side, but if the Sean Payton and Drew Brees find ways exploit the Rams’ poor tackling, they’ll be able to pick up a major win on the road.

Pick: Saints +2.5

Chargers vs. Cowboys (Pick)

Packers vs. Steelers (-14)

This week I’m including two games that otherwise would be leans in a teaser. The first game features two teams on opposite tracks, as the Chargers blew out the Bills while the Cowboys received a beating at the hands of the Eagles. However, over the course of the season, the Cowboys have shown a better sample of performance than the Chargers have by most metrics, such as DVOA and FPI. On top of that, they have home field advantage as the Chargers travel on a short week to play in Dallas on Thursday. Tyron Smith and Sean Lee, two of the Cowboys’ most important players may miss their third straight game, which, as we saw on Sunday night, will give them trouble. Los Angeles’ defensive strength is generating pressure on the quarterback; Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could have a field day against Smith’s backup. Yet Dak Prescott’s running ability will allow him to keep plays alive with his legs, even if it’s just to buy more time to find a receiver down field. Even though the injury to Sean Lee will significantly hurt the Cowboys’ run defense, Los Angeles might not be able to capitalize with an offensive line that ranks 3rd in stuffed rate (a measure of how often a running back is stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage), per Football Outsiders. Last week, Philadelphia took advantage of Dallas’ injuries, but Los Angeles likely doesn’t have the weapons to benefit from the Cowboys misfortune. Expect Dak and the rushing attack to bounce back, while the Chargers become one dimensional on offense due to their mediocre rushing attack. I’ll pair Dallas with the Packers, who are getting two touchdowns on the road at Pittsburgh, to gain the seven-point spread advantage. Green Bay has been awful without Aaron Rodgers, but even with all the injuries to their running backs and offensive line, their offense still ranks 4nd in rushing DVOA. The Packers will likely avoid a second straight shut out and keep the game within three scores for the teaser to pay off.

Pick: Cowboys +7 and Packers +21 (-140)

Ohio State vs. Michigan (+12)

For Michigan fans like myself, this is typically the most exciting game of the year before kickoff and then the most disappointing game of the year after the final whistle. Ohio State travels to the Big House on Saturday with the most NFL prospects other than Alabama, and comes off two massive victories against Michigan State, who beat the Wolverines earlier this season, and Illinois. Michigan can’t even play spoiler to the Buckeyes, as they’ve already locked up a spot in the Big Ten Championship to play Wisconsin in two weeks. To make matters worse, Michigan’s quarterback situation is unstable, with the status of Wilton Speight and Brandon Peters unknown at this point, leaving John O’Korn, who has one touchdown and five interceptions on the season, as the potential starter. But, as much as a mess Michigan is on offense, they rank third in passing defense per S&P+, behind one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the nation in Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary. Their secondary ranks second in havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defended, and forced fumbles divided by total plays), demonstrating that they match up well with their opponents’ receivers. Michigan’s defensive strengths may be able to keep the game within two scores against the Buckeyes’ elite offense. If Michigan can force a couple turnovers and create good starting field position for their offense, they might be able to move the ball on the ground with an underrated rushing attack; all three running backs with more than 80 carries this season (Karan Higdon, Chris Evans, and Ty Isaac) average at least five yards per carry. After a disappointing season, Michigan has one last shot for a silver lining; expect them to make the most of a rivalry game at home.

Pick: Michigan +12

Washington State vs. Washington (-9.5)

The Apple Cup won’t be as meaningful as some experts predicted earlier this year, as only the Cougars can qualify for the PAC-12 Championship with a win. However, Washington will be happy to play spoiler and extend their winning streak over Washington State to five. Both teams come into this game at 9-2, but Washington has almost doubled Washington State’s average point differential, 22 to 10.1 points per game. The Huskies rank 7th in FPI, while the Cougars come in at 29th. Essentially, despite similar records, Washington has performed much better over the course of the season. The discrepancy between the underlying statistics and records/rankings typically means value for bettors. In this case, laying the nine points provides value with Washington’s elite defense matching up against a mediocre Cougar offense that ranks fourth in interceptions per game. Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin add playmaking ability on the offensive side; Washington holds an advantage in essentially any matchup. The public will likely see two similarly ranked teams and bet down the spread, creating more value for bettors. Bet on Washington for value based on misguided public perception as they take on their biggest rival.

Pick: Washington -9

BONUS

Chelsea vs. Liverpool

Another match between two of the Premier League’s major six teams occurs this Saturday, with the Blues taking on the Reds at Anfield. Usually I recommend a money line bet for soccer games, but this matchup features two clubs performing at similar levels this season; Liverpool has an SPI of 82.4 and Chelsea’s SPI is 82.9, according to FiveThirtyEight. Thus, the value lies in betting the goal spread at Chelsea +0.5. With two evenly matched clubs, the probability of a draw is much greater, and with the draw factored in on Chelsea’s side of the spread, the likelihood of Chelsea covering the spread is much more likely than either team winning outright alone. Although Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is likely the best offseason addition by any Premier League club, Alvaro Morata has more than held his own, leading Chelsea in goals this season. Chelsea also has the Premier League’s reigning Player of the Season in N’Golo Kante, and his ability to cover ground from his spot in midfield will likely give the Blues a slight ball possession advantage. For this weekend’s best Premier League match, make the safe bet and take the spread with Chelsea.

Pick: Chelsea +0.5 (-140)

Last Week: 2-1

Overall: 6-8

Bonus: 2-2