Best Bets: College Basketball Preview Edition (11/9)
Last weekend turned out to be subpar for the Best Bets column with only two wins, coming from the Panthers at home against the Falcons and Georges St-Pierre over Michael Bisping in the octagon. Luckily there are some solid matchups in football betting this week that could spell a bounceback weekend.
In lieu of a bonus section this week, there will be a preview of the College Basketball season by way of examining the best title bet – there is one team that provides major betting value to win the NCAA tournament. (All odds courtesy of Bovada as of 11/8/2017).
One helpful tool for serious bettors are team power ratings, where a team’s true talent is represented by one number that encompasses every aspect of the game. These ratings can help bettors compare teams to each other and estimate their true hierarchy, typically on a per possession basis. It’s important to understand that the actual outcomes of games can be quite varied, and the best way to predict future performance is to consider the finer per-possession statistics of how a team played during a game. That’s the goal behind power ratings – to compile these statistics to create one comparative number. This year, there seems to be one team that’s underrated in the AP Poll and the future odds compared to the average power ratings system: the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova is ranked sixth in the country, but ranks in the top two in both the KenPom ratings by Ken Pomeroy (first) and ESPN’s BPI (second). Isolating the discrepancy between the media rankings and the power ratings helps bettors find betting value, since the odds are heavily dependent on public perception. The Wildcats are the most underrated elite team, making them the best bet to win the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats will be one of the most balanced and deep teams in the nation led by starters Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Phil Booth, who all had a role on the 2016 championship team. That makes them particularly adaptable, which is a key factor come March. Watch for Villanova to contend for its second title in three seasons.
Pick: Villanova 28-1
Michigan State vs. Ohio State (-16)
Georgia vs. Auburn (+3)
There are many major conference matchups this week, but only two provide any significant betting value. Michigan State comes off an upset win against Penn State to play Ohio State in Columbus. The Buckeyes and Spartans are on opposite trajectories after Ohio State was blown out at Iowa last Saturday. However, the Buckeyes remain one of the nation’s elite teams, despite two big losses, because they have major NFL talent. Michigan State is a solid team, but they’ve been overachieving this season with wins against Michigan and Penn State of a combined seven points, and both those wins in atrocious weather. The recency bias of public perception has driven the spread down lower than it should be based on the sample of the entire season; it’s heavily weighted on the results of last week, which isn’t as predictive as the results of the entire season. Another game where public perception has slightly skewed the spread is Georgia vs. Auburn. Georgia has been dominant this season which has resulted in an undefeated record and a top spot in the CFP Rankings. On the other hand, Auburn has two losses, both coming on the road to Clemson and LSU. However, both teams have elite defenses and have been able to dismantle lesser teams, putting up similar performances against Mississippi State and Missouri. Despite the close losses by the Tigers, they’re more talented than their record and rankings show, and they’ll likely put up a fight against top ranked Georgia at home this weekend. Both games this week are leans so the best option is to get a six point advantage in the spread by putting them in a teaser.
Pick: Ohio State -10 and Auburn +9 (-105)
Chargers vs. Jaguars (-4)
After three weeks away from the field for several reasons, Leonard Fournette returns to the Jaguars for their game against Los Angeles this Sunday. Fournette has been a sensation for Jacksonville this season while averaging about 99 yards per game, good for second in the league behind Adrian Peterson (who has far fewer carries). That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers, who rank 26th in rushing defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. However, the real story this season for the Jaguars has been their much-improved defense, which ranks first in DVOA. Jacksonville’s biggest strength on the defensive side of the ball is their pass defense; when broken down by pass and rush, the Jaguars rank first in pass defense and 31st in rush defense, which is absolutely astounding since they rank first overall, too. That’s just how good they are at defending the pass. Luckily, the Chargers’ middling rushing offense doesn’t present as much of a threat to opposing teams as their passing behind veteran Philip Rivers; they rank tenth in passing defense DVOA. This makes Los Angeles a solid matchup for the Jaguars because they’ll be able to put pressure on Rivers behind Calais Campbell and the Jaguars’ elite pass rush. Jacksonville will be able to burn the clock behind Fournette on offense, forcing the Chargers to challenge their amazing passing defense when they have the ball. Look for the Jaguars to expose the bad matchup and cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars -4
Cowboys vs. Falcons (-3)
The Cowboys make for a difficult game to predict every week as the Ezekiel Elliott saga continues. His long-looming suspension begins this week, as the appeals court denied the motion filed by the NFLPA that would allow him to play. Elliott is an essential part of this Dallas squad, but there is more to the success of the Cowboys’ offense than Zeke. The Cowboys’ best offensive player this season is arguably Rayne Dakota Prescott – Dak for short – who ranks second in ESPN’s QBR, only behind Deshaun Watson. Behind Prescott and the Cowboys’ elite offensive line, the Cowboys could remain contenders while Elliott serves his suspension. This Sunday they travel to Atlanta to face a struggling Falcons team. The Panthers took advantage of a Falcons defense that ranks 29th in rushing DVOA last week, and Dallas will likely do the same this week, with or without Elliott. The Cowboys rushing offense would take a step back without Zeke, but their offensive line is so proficient that it can make any backup look capable. The Falcons offense is dangerous though, so the Cowboys will look to emerging pass rush savant DeMarcus Lawrence to lead the way with pressure. On the other side of the ball, Dak will have all day to throw behind Tyron Smith & Co., especially since the Falcons pass rush is putrid. This projects to be a high-scoring game, but the Cowboys can come out on top behind the play of their stars.
Pick: Lean Cowboys +3
Last Week: 1-3
Overall: 3-5
Bonus: 1-1