Best Bets: Week of 11/3
Last week was a mediocre week for the Best Bets column; in what appeared to be the game of the year, Ohio State rallied and dominated the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 39-38, yet failed to cover the six-point spread. On Sunday Night Football, the Lions amassed 482 yards, yet didn’t score a touchdown as the game against the Steelers went under the total. Notre Dame did, however, cover the spread in a blowout against N.C. State, and the Vikings, Saints, and Eagles all won to hit on the parlay. This weekend features some captivating matchups for football fans. Seven of the college games feature two ranked teams in the AP Poll. The best value, though, comes from a pair of conference games, starting with the Big Ten (odds courtesy of Bovada as of 11/2/17):
Penn State vs. Michigan State (+9)
Penn State suffered a heartbreaking loss last week at the hands of J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes, but they remain one of the best teams in the country. They have faced one of the ten toughest schedules (according to sports-reference.com) and have an average point differential of 26.5. Against a schedule similar in difficulty, Michigan State only has an average point differential of 3.2, with a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame. The Spartans are a good team anchored by one of the country’s best defenses, but they’re no match for Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions. Despite ranking sixth in defensive S&P+ (power ratings from Football Outsiders), Michigan State has given up a touchdown or field goal 94.74% of the time an opponent possesses the ball in the red zone this season, good for 124th (!) in the country. Penn State should be able to move the ball on the Spartans, and the one-two punch of Barkley and quarterback Trace McSorley should be able to finish drives. Michigan State’s middling offense won’t be able to keep up with the Lions, who also boast one of the nation’s top defensive units, despite giving up 39 points to Ohio State last week. Expect a bounce-back week for Penn State, who’ll show that they aren’t quite out of the playoff picture yet.
Pick: Penn State -9
Stanford vs. Washington State (-2.5)
This game features two teams with identical records, but on opposite trajectories; Stanford comes in on a five-game winning streak, while Washington State has dropped two of the last three. For the most part, the Cougars have fared better against common opponents and since the game is at home, they’re the favorites by a slim margin against the Cardinal. However, Stanford has shown that they’re the better team over the course of the season so far, with Heisman candidate RB Bryce Love leading the way. Stanford’s offense behind Love has been explosive, averaging seven yards per play finish red zone drives with a touchdown or field goal 90% of the time. While Stanford’s defense is nothing special (certainly when compared to years past), Washington State’s offense often relies heavily upon QB Luke Falk to score points. In the two Cougar losses this year, Falk threw five interceptions against California, and was benched last week against Arizona, while his backup, Tyler Hilinski, threw four picks. Stanford’s defense ranks ninth in interceptions, so the Cougars could be in trouble if Falk can’t turn it around. Look for Stanford to cover the spread (and possibly win) on the road against a struggling Washington State team.
Pick: Stanford +2.5
Falcons vs. Panthers (+1)
The Falcons have disappointed this season after their near Super Bowl win last season, mostly due to their porous defense that ranks 28th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Cam Newton’s Panthers have struggled this year as well at times, albeit on the other side of the ball, where they rank 23rd in DVOA. When Luke Kuechly plays, the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, and their matchup with the Falcons’ offense, led by reigning MVP Matt Ryan, is what makes this game particularly exciting. However, the game could be decided by the play of Cam Newton and the Panther offense. When Newton is protected, the offense is dangerous; their low DVOA is likely skewed by abysmal performances in Chicago and against the Bills, where Cam Newton was sacked for a total of 11 times. Luckily for the Panthers, the Falcons rank near the bottom of the league in adjusted sack rate of 5.5%; Cam Newton will likely have enough time in the pocket for the Panthers to keep up with the Falcons on Sunday. Carolina’s front seven is good enough to slow down Devonta Freeman, who’s had a great season for Atlanta so far. The Panthers just traded their best receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, to Buffalo, making it difficult to project their offensive performance as a whole, but it’s likely that Carolina leans on their defense while Cam Newton returns to form against a weak Falcons defense.
Pick: Panthers +1
Lions vs. Packers (+3)
The narrative surrounding this game is the injury to the league’s best player in Aaron Rodgers; the Packers would likely be a big favorite in this game at Green Bay if he was healthy. The Lions' offense has been mediocre this season behind Matthew Stafford, only scoring a touchdown on 45% of red zone possessions and converting third downs at a rate of 37%. Stafford ranks 16th in ESPN’s QBR and hasn’t quite lived up to his massive contract yet. The Packers will start Brett Hundley in place of Rodgers, and although he didn’t look very good vs. New Orleans in his first start, he has upside due to his incredible athleticism. Green Bay comes off a bye, so they’ve had time to prepare since the loss in New Orleans and will likely lean on RB Aaron Jones on offense, who’s been a pleasant surprise averaging 5.6 yards per carry so far, this season. Detroit has been notoriously bad in Green Bay, where they’ve only won one game since 1991. The Packers will eat up the clock, tire out the Lions defense, and force Stafford to try to lead a Lions comeback once again.
Pick: Packers +3
BONUS
Those who stayed up through the night for the WGC – HSBC Champions saw Dustin Johnson come up short of a win after a final round of 5 over par and a top 5 finish for Kyle Stanley. This weekend, there are many exciting non-football sporting events, such as Premier League matchups like Manchester United-Chelsea and Manchester City-Arsenal and the Breeders’ Cup, but the best betting value comes from a fight from the UFC 217 card:
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Georges St-Pierre returns to the UFC this Saturday for his first fight since 2013 to fight Michael Bisping for the middleweight championship. GSP moves up a weight class from welterweight; the combination of the size disadvantage and the near four-year hiatus would seem to tip the scales in Bisping’s favor. However, St-Pierre is two years younger than Bisping and he has a reach advantage. The key to this fight will be if Bisping can keep the match from going to the ground, where GSP has the clear advantage. If St-Pierre can successfully take down Bisping, he is likely to gain a position of control; that could be a strategy for GSP if he gets in trouble early. In terms of striking, St-Pierre is the more accurate puncher, where he leads Bisping in head jab accuracy 42% to 31%, and the better defender against opponents’ strikes, where he leads in total head strike defense 84% to 77% (statistics courtesy of MMA Oddsbreaker). It’s also worth noting that Bisping has been knocked down ten times in his career, while he has only knocked down his opponents eight times. Bisping’s path to winning is through controlling the fight from the standing position, wearing down GSP, and winning rounds on the judges’ scorecards by landing more punches. However, because St-Pierre employs a much more versatile skill set with his ground game and punching accuracy, the betting value lies with him if he can shake off the rust from his fight absence.
Pick: Georges St-Pierre -110
Last week: 2-2
Overall: 2-2
Bonus: 0-1