Why Triangle of Sadness Will Win Best Picture
'Tis just one week until the Oscars, and for the second consecutive year-- but just the third time ever! -- no less than 10 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because one film has won the vast majority of the top prizes on the awards circuit thus far, the buzzy Everything Everywhere All At Once. However, not only would the multiverse comedy with a big heart and primarily Asian cast be a wildly abnormal winner, few if any other top contenders are traditional 'Oscar bait,' and none are without its detractor.
Those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can truly be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, Parasite's stunner in 2020, and CODA's late surge last year all taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 12th.
We're approaching the halfway point in our Best Picture previews, and each film has been wildly different from the last. I'm delighted to report that trend continues here with Triangle Of Sadness, a double nominee for Best Picture and Best Director for Swedish director Ruben Östlund. The dark comedy, told in three parts, follows an influencer/model couple on their vacation on a luxury yacht with many wealthy guests. Through a series of oft-hilarious twist and turns, it becomes increasingly clear that the story is a referendum on class, as well as 'beauty as currency.'
There's no question Triangle of Sadness is the biggest surprise in this field. There had been very little fanfare stateside for the movie, no signals that it may be a viable Oscar contender at least. It's also far and away the lowest box-office performer of any of the finalists, netting only $4.2 million domestically. That said, it's no stranger to the awards circuit, particularly in Europe: it was the Palme d'Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival in May 2022, and later won both Best Film and Best Director at the European Film Awards, as well as at Guldbagge, the Swedish equivalent of Oscars. And while largely shut out of the American awards circuit, it did land a couple noteworthy nominations for "Best Comedy" at the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice Awards.
How could a movie that wasn't a commercial (lowest-budget) nor critical (fairly mixed reviews) smash possibly upset the apple cart at the most prestigious cinema awards show in the world? Well, there are a couple emotional angles, wildly different in scope. One is the Dolly de Leon angle; the Filipina actress was a revelation as Abigail, the cleaning crew team member-turned-unlikely leader, and when her name wasn't announced among the Best Supporting Actress nominees, it was considered one of the biggest snubs of the entire nominee field. On a much more serious note, the tragic, untimely passing of another breakout star, Charlbi Dean, who plays one of the main characters, will likely be at the forefront of the minds of all involved with the film. Could the #justiceforDolly sentiment, or respects and tributes to Charlbi, create enough emotional goodwill to land this film higher on voters' ballots, keeping it alive through multiple rounds of voting and riding a wave to an unexpected victory? Unlikely, but not impossible.
But in truth, if a stunning upset is to occur, it will likely be on the back of the film's thematic content. "Eat the rich" is a very en vogue sentiment, one that has begun to transcend online discussion and blogs, and permeate film and television. A good friend of mine described this as "White Lotus-core"; that show has taken everyone by storm, and movies in recent years such as this one, The Menu, and Parasite all hinge on a satire and condemnation of the elite, wealthy class. The latter, of course, famously scored a shock win of this very award just 3 years ago. The Academy clearly already has enough admirers of the latest edition of class commentary cinema; does it have enough admirers to render the film the top vote-getter?
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