Why The Father Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Chloe Zhao's Nomadland] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
To be honest, of the nominees, The Father is probably on the lower end of the list to actually win the big prize. It’s not really a lock for any one award and hasn’t gotten many wins on the circuit leading up to the Oscars. HOWEVER, I’m of the mind that if you’re nominated, especially in the era of ranked voting, then it means there is always a chance.
First of all, the film overperformed in a big way. Like most late-breaking entries, it’s always a gamble as to how many nominations it can get. Will the later release date help it stick it voters’ minds in a fresh way? Or will it be so late to the party that people don’t get the chance to check it out and it misses out on everything as a result? The former is what happened to The Father. It didn’t just get in for Best Actor and Supporting Actress (as was expected), but it got 6 total nominations! That puts it on par with fellow Best Picture nominees Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Sound of Metal. Usually when a film overperforms like that, that means the Academy saw something special. The BAFTAs are also a pretty noteworthy precursor when predicting the Oscars, and The Father did very well over at that ceremony. Those awards even saw the rare instance of Anthony Hopkins beating Chadwick Boseman. However, it’s worth noting that it could just be British bias, considering The Father is a VERY British film.
This is an actor-led nominee at the end of the day, though, and Anthony Hopkins is one of the most celebrated, veteran actors that we still have working today. This film showcases some of his best work of all time. He might not be able to win because of Chadwick Boseman, but they could award him in a different way: giving the film Best Picture. Some years, the Academy just seems to focus on spreading the love around to multiple films. I can see an avenue where winning Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture is in the cards for The Father.
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