Why The Banshees Of Inisherin Will Win Best Picture

'Tis but a wee few days until the Oscars, and for the second consecutive year-- but just the third time ever! -- no less than 10 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because one film has won the vast majority of the top prizes on the awards circuit thus far, the buzzy Everything Everywhere All At Once. However, not only would the multiverse comedy with a big heart and primarily Asian cast be a wildly abnormal winner, few if any other top contenders are traditional 'Oscar bait,' and none are without its detractor.

Those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can truly be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, Parasite's stunner in 2020, and CODA's late surge last year all taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 12th.

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All season long, The Banshees of Inisherin has seemed to be a hit across the board, and has solidified itself as one of the top three contenders of the year. Martin McDonagh is no stranger to the Oscar stage. He’s already a winner for his short film Six Shooter in 2004, and has been nominated several times since, for the likes of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. But this is the first time he’s broken into the Best Director race.

McDonagh's movie is an acting juggernaut with four nominations for its main performers; this, coupled with their director's nod for both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, gives the film essentially everything it needs to be a Best Picture winner. Sure, a number of movies have had close to this many nominations and not won a single one (looking at you, The Irishman and you, American Hustle), so it’s not impossible Banshees goes home completely empty-handed. But there’s just something about the passion surrounding this movie that my gut says might push it over the edge.

The thought that Everything Everywhere All At Once has Best Picture in the bag has become so prevalent, it may cause some in the Academy to throw this film some number 1 votes on the preferential ballot instead. It's likely less divisive of a film as Everything Everywhere as well... you get enough universal appreciation, "eh, why not" #1 votes... that could very well lead it to sneak in ahead!