Why Sound of Metal Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Chloe Zhao's Nomadland] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
Sound of Metal is going to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Why? Because I’ve been manifesting it since March 15. This is not only easily my favorite movie of the nominees, but in quite a long time. So, I’m biased, yes but there also is a small chance it could beat out Nomadland for the big award.
The Independent Spirit Awards, held just last night, have had an increasing amount of overlap with the Academy Awards in recent years, and last night Sound of Metal won big. Paul Raci scored an upset win for Best Supporting, Riz Ahmed an even bigger upset win for Best Actor, and the film itself took Best First Feature. Historically, the Indie Spirits have had little influence on Oscar night but again, more and more nominees in recent years have gone on to be heavily nominated at the Oscars as well. Plus, my overt optimism solidifies Sound of Metal being the second spot and Nomadland’s biggest competition for Best Picture.
In a beautiful story about loss and love, Raci and Ahmed both give performances of a lifetime. Sound of Metal is the rare film that has caused most people to react similarly, which is to say they loved it. Is that universal acclaim enough for it to bring a major upset to the ceremony? Gosh, I sure hope so (says the woman who also loved Nomadland... just not as much). At the end of the day, the film will surely walk away with Sound awards, as it should, but just maybe Sunday night will prove that good things can actually happen and we’ll watch this near-perfect film dominate a night most thought was set in stone.
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