Why Nightmare Alley Will Win Best Picture
'Tis t-minus 8 days until the Oscars, and a field of 10 films-- the highest number since 2011! --are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Jane Campion's The Power Of The Dog] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, no frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without its detractors; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner in 2020 taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 27th.
The next Best Picture nominee in our preview series is the trippy, star-studded Nightmare Alley.
Acclaimed director Guillermo del Toro's follow-up to the Oscar-winning The Shape Of Water is a remake of the 1947 adaptation of William Lindsay Gresham's novel. The neo-noir thriller follows a charming but shady carnival worker, nakedly ambitious in his attempt to find fame and success. That intriguing, mystifying protagonist is played by 4-time Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper, who many felt was snubbed from a Best Actor nomination this time around.
He wasn't alone in not hearing his name called, though; as a matter of fact, Nightmare Alley didn't garner any acting or directing noms. Its only other nods on the night are for Cinematography and Production Design, which helps explain why this film is considered the longest shot to win top honors, according to betting odds. Lest you think that fact is a death knell for their chance to win, however, remember that it is by no means unprecedented for movies without a "big night" on the whole to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. In fact, recent winners Spotlight and Green Book only one other award in the ceremony before going on to grab the big one, and not only did 2013 winner Argo only win two other awards, much like Nightmare Alley it didn't even seat nominees in any of the acting categories, nor Best Director. The absence of a negative doesn't prove a positive, of course; all of this doesn't mean Nightmare Alley will win. It just means you can't count it out, especially given its respected cast, and its appeal as an original, abnormal champion (neo-noir thrillers do not typical Oscar winners make).
But if we're being honest here, it's going to pull off a stunner, it'll be because of the man behind the camera. Director Guillermo del Toro is positively beloved by the industry. I mentioned off the top that The Shape Of Water was an Oscar winner, but that was only part of the truth: the film brought del Toro wins for Best Director and, you guessed it, Best Picture. While his first win in both categories was his big celebratory moment, it doesn't mean that's the only time the Academy will award him. His two peers that comprise with him the "Three Amigos of Cinema," Alfonso Cuarón and Alejandro González Iñárritu, both won Best Director again soon after winning for the first time (in Iñárritu's case, it was literally the year after), and del Toro doesn't have the luxury of being nominated for Best Director this time around. Is it too absurd to think, in a ranked-choice voting system that will likely split votes, he might just be the beneficiary in this field instead? I think not.
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