Why Minari Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Chloe Zhao's Nomadland] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
Chief among the many controversies from this year's Golden Globes ceremony was the relegation of Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner Minari to strictly the "Best Foreign Film" category despite the film taking place in America, being about a Korean-American family, and featuring nearly as much spoken English as Korean. That said, since winning said Best Foreign Film at the Globes, Minari has come a long way. With 6 nominations, including one for this top prize, it’s tied for the 2nd-most nominated film at tonight’s Academy Awards. It’s also quietly built up some momentum on the awards circuit, winning Best Film from both the Austin and New York Film Critics associations, and racking up increasingly higher amounts of nominations at all the big Oscar precursors, such as the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Independent Spirit Awards, and SAG Awards.
If you’re looking for an “Oscar bait,” sociopolitical reason voters may favor this film, one is fairly obvious. In a year that has seen a tragic rise of violence and hate crimes against Asian-Americans, and an ensuing groundswell of support for “Stop Asian Hate,” the academy has a chance here to throw their support behind a beautiful story of an Asian-American family. The film also features a cast almost entirely made up of Asian and Asian-American actors. Its victory would be a delightful follow-up to South Korea’s breakthrough moment at last year’s Oscars with Parasite’s unexpected dominance, and could be one last middle finger from the Academy to Donald Trump, who publicly moaned about Parasite beating out 'American films' for Best Picture.
But in truth, as is the case with many of this diverse array of nominees, Minari’s chances at Best Picture are buoyed by the quality of the film alone. It’s a simple enough movie, but so well-acted, and told and crafted with such care that it’s easy to fall in love with. There’s a reason that it’s received an 89 on Metacritic, making it the 2nd-best reviewed film of all the nominees. In the ranked-choice voting system, that sort of universal appeal and acclaim bodes very well. And consider this: when was the last time you heard that a Best Picture nominee that also had nominees for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay wasn't a serious contender?
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