Why Judas and the Black Messiah Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Chloe Zhao's Nomadland] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
Judas and the Black Messiah is a longshot to win Best Picture. But then again, it was a longshot to even be nominated for the award, and yet here we are. Released exclusively on HBO Max, and considerably later than many other Oscar contenders, the hype missed much of the awards circuit and indeed, the film was not a nominee for Best Drama at the Golden Globes, nor for the Best Picture equivalent at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, nor SAG Awards. Against all odds, it was the most prestigious awards show of them all, the Academy Awards, that, at least in terms of nominations, rewarded them most handsomely, with five.
In just his 2nd feature-length film as director, Shaka King weaves together a riveting and gut-wrenching story in Judas, telling the true story of Black Panther 'Messiah' figure Fred Hampton's life and death, the latter coming as a result of the betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal. Hampton was a larger-than-life Civil Rights figure, and his death a tragedy, an assassination that was ruled (by a white judge) legally acceptable. In an emotional week that saw the conviction of Derek Chauvin convicted for the murder of George Floyd, and following a year of massive protests and ensuing cultural change, it's not hard to foresee a scenario in which the Academy opts for a film that depicts some of the painful history of institutional racism and violence by governing bodies.
There’s a less cynical argument for why Judas has a real chance at top honors, too. It's a remarkably well-done movie, and it starts with the acting. The defending champion Parasite notwithstanding, it's increasingly rare for a Best Picture winner to not have at least one of its actors be a serious contender for an individual award, and this film has two acting performances worthy of such reward. Daniel Kaluuya, who plays Hampton, has cleaned up on the awards circuit for the Best Supporting Actor award; his hype was mainstream before his film's hype was. He is the frontrunner to again nab the award, and deservedly so; his performance as the Black Panther figurehead is nothing short of brilliant. But so too is the performance of his costar, the criminally underrate Lakeith Stanfield, who plays O'Neal. Unfortunately, the two rising stars are inexplicably nominated in the same category-- as Kyle Buchanan from The New York Times asked, "If Stanfield and Kaluuya are both supporting actors, then who exactly is this movie supposed to be about?" Still, from their camp's perspective, double the chance of their film winning an all-important acting award, I suppose.
I mentioned this when I discussed Mank, and the same applies here: Judas and the Black Messiah is neither the biggest nor the best-reviewed of the nominees. But it still performed decently well with audiences of all kinds, opening at 2nd place the weekend of its release, and garnering a Metacritic score of 85. That's not exactly the profile of a longshot, and when you throw in the serious and unfortunately timely thematic material, and it might just be the profile of a serious contender.
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