Why Dune: Part Two Will Win Best Picture
Less than one week until the Oscars, and no less than 10 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. This also appears to be a far more competitive race than in years past, which has often spat out at best two-horse races (like The Power of the Dog vs. CODA in 2022, or 1917 vs. Parasite in 2020), but more often a runaway coronation (as we've had in the last two years, with Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once).
No, this one genuinely feels wide open in large part because of how many new names are up for the big awards. For the first time in history, the 5 Best Director nominees at these Oscars are all first-time nominees. Only 1 out of the combined Best Actor and Best Actress nominees has ever won an Oscar, and only 4 of them have even been nominated before. But it's not just the absence of bona fide star power helming the nominated movies; it's the fact that there isn't a traditional frontrunner, as a small handful of films have split honors across the awards circuit thus far.
Those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can truly be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, Parasite's stunner in 2020, and CODA's late surge in 2022 all taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 2nd.
Released nearly a calendar year ago, the second installment of the Dune franchise picks up the adaptation of Frank Herbert's epic sci-fi novel where the first film left it in 2021, and follows Paul Atreides as he joins, and ultimately leads, the Fremen people in a war against the House of Harkonenn. Interestingly enough, just like its predecessor, Dune: Part Two's release was significantly delayed; whereas Dune was postponed by the COVID-19 pandemic, its sequel was pushed back due to the SAG and WGA strikes that occupied a chunk of 2023. However, in yet another parallel between the two, the delay in release did not stop Dune: Part Two from being both a massive cultural event and one of the biggest box office smashes of the year.
The delayed release and high bar set by its predecessor meant Dune: Part Two had a tough task to exceed box office expectations, and yet it still managed to do so: its advanced ticket sales even exceeded those of reigning Best Picture winner Oppenheimer, which was itself part of the biggest cinematic event of 2023. There was no question this was the cinematic event of 2024, at least all the way up to the holiday season release of Wicked. Denis Villenueve's film set a springtime record for gross earnings from IMAX screenings alone. AMC Theatres released a novelty popcorn bucket for its release that went megaviral. Everyone- and I mean EVERYONE --on Twitter was buzzing about the movie, and sharing which parts they found most awe-inspiring.
Strangely enough, though, for the second time in this series, reviews from critics were more mixed. Perhaps that might explain the relatively (and surprisingly) scant recognition this awards season. The Oscars are only the third major awards show (after the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice) to even bestow this film with a Best Picture nod, and it has yet to win big at any location on the awards circuit. Three years ago, Dune did their best Mad Max: Fury Road impression and barnstormed through the technical categories-- Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Production Design --but failing to bring home any of the biggest prizes on the night, including THE biggest prize of all, and most expect the same feat this Sunday for Part Two. However, while 2022 was not exactly a loaded year for cinema, neither was the race as seemingly wide-open as this one is, and you simply cannot discount the number of admirers this franchise has in the industry, nor the power of those admirers. Steven Spielberg, perhaps the most celebrated director working today, called Part Two "the most brilliant science fiction movie [he's] ever seen." Titanic and Avatar creator James Cameron declared it "pure cinema." Reigning Best Director winner Christopher Nolan deemed it "miraculous." Those are some heavy hitters, and you could bet what they have to say about a nominee could have a good amount of sway. Besides, though March of 2024 might feel like a nice long time ago, Dune: Part Two did have something no other nominee can claim: months of its own airtime to be the buzziest movie without the awards show pileup. In a ranked-choice voting system in a year where no frontrunner has taken command of the race, it's not a stretch to imagine there may be a large number of votes out there for a big-budget, "movie magic" candidate, especially one whose geopolitical storyline could feel eerily prescient in these turbulent times.
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