Why Belfast Will Win Best Picture
'Tis t-minus 10 days until the Oscars, and a field of 10 films-- the highest number since 2011! --are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Jane Campion's The Power Of The Dog] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, no frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without its detractors; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Spotlight's and Moonlight's back-to-back upsets in 2016 and 2017, and Parasite's stunner in 2020 taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 10 nominees reason to believe on Sunday the 27th.
To kick off this series, I'm starting with one one of the top contenders for Best Picture, and the first of the real contenders that I saw: Kenneth Branagh's Belfast.
" A love letter to (x)" has become a tired description for films, but it rarely fits as a description better than it does for this movie from Branagh. The legendary British actor went behind the lens this time, writing and directing a story based on his experience growing up in Northern Ireland, especially around the outset of "The Troubles." If you love something or someone, you don't shy away from being honest about them, and thus, as you might imagine, Branagh's story depicts in good measure the violence that took place literally right outside his door, as well as the ever-increasing intensity of the socio-political situation, and the tension that caused among his family and friends. However, it also includes a fair amount-- a surprising amount, in fact --of quite heartwarming content. Interspersed evenly with the difficult scenes are happy ones, featuring the young actor loosely portraying Branagh with his family at the movies, at a show where his parents break into song and dance, playing football with neighbors, or getting into lighthearted trouble with friends.
This balance in tone is what I found really appealing about this film, and what I think might lend itself to a win from the Academy as well. Consider this: in 2019, Green Book beat out Roma in one of the more stunning Best Picture decisions, a decision that drew the ire of many, but I think Belfast combines the best of both those films. Like Roma, the movie tells the director's real-life story about growing up amidst domestic turbulence (and is even beautifully shot in black and white as well!), but like Green Book, its tone is often lighthearted and humorous, engaging the viewer in the heart of the story wholeheartedly. Similarities to one past winner by way of another universally-acclaimed film might be a winning recipe in this case.
Additionally, if someone is going to have their hands all over a film, it doesn't hurt if that person is Kenneth Branagh. He is nearly universally beloved, and despite his long and distinguished career, has never won an Academy Award for acting or directing. If nothing else, Belfast affords the Academy to wholeheartedly reward one of their fine members, as he is nominated for both Best Director and Best Picture. The movie has struck out for top honors at most major awards shows to date, but has been a nominee at every last one of them, and was the People's Choice winner at no short of 10 different international film festivals. So, while a Best Picture win might be considered a minor upset, Belfast's story, pedigree and auteur make it a very real, very impressive contender for the award.
Comments