The Couch Power 10, Week 12
Well, folks? We've made it. Somehow, in the blink of an eye, the weather is downright cold, Thanksgiving is in the rear-view mirror, December is upon us, and that means I can utter the most bittersweet sentence possible: this weekend is the last weekend of the college football regular season.
The bitter part of that is obvious: I'm not ready for college football season to end. It's been another thrilling year for the best sport in America, with thrilling games and upsets just about every week. I'm not ready to have to start the countdown clock for Labor Day 2024. But, on the flipside, conference championship weekend-- and the playoff/bowl announcement the day after --is always exciting, and boy, that is very much the case this year again. I've talked a lot in recent weeks about how what the 2023 season might have lacked in pure chaos at the top, it's made up for in quality and an epic playoff race.
That playoff race comes to a head this weekend, as, despite perhaps the greatest weekend of rivalry weekend in recent memory, the large field of postseason contenders was hardly whittled at all this past weekend. Those few exceptions? Louisville, whose slim postseason hopes were extinguished as rivals Kentucky stormed into their home stadium and upset the Cardinals. And in, perhaps, the most anticipated edition of The Game since 2006, Michigan pulled out an epic, down-to-the-wire victory over Ohio State, which not only gave the Wolverines a 3rd straight win over their rivals, it condemned the Buckeyes to once again sitting on the bubble, hoping for upsets elsewhere to boost their playoff cred. But, whether it was a gutsy 4th down call to set up a game-winning field goal, a game-sealing 3rd-down TD run, or, you know, a miracle touchdown pass on 4th and 31, the teams at the top found a way to survive. Which means it's all to play for this weekend!
One last time: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. And as we're coming down the stretch, in the wake of more baffling decisions by the playoff committee, this rankings is honing its criteria: résumé is the starting point. Objectivity over subjectivity. Got it? Cool. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Georgia
The Bulldogs stayed perfect on the year (and for two years running now), but not without a scare from rivals Georgia Tech, which I thought might be possible, given the Yellow Jackets' sweet spot of being an actually decent team but not nearly good enough to warrant a ton of attention from the Dawgs before their epic SEC Championship showdown. But, as all great teams do, Georgia made enough plays on the road to keep them at arms' length for most of the 2nd half, and now go to Atlanta with the chance to make it 30 wins in a row, back-to-back SEC championships, 2 consecutive wins over long-time tormentors Alabama, and 3 straight playoff appearances.
2. Washington
Like Georgia before them, Washington closed out the year 12-0 but had to survive a hell of a battle from in-state rivals to do it. Washington State, a team much better than their 5-6 record, played their hearts out in an attempt to get bowl-eligible and spoil the Huskies' playoff hopes, but Washington gritted it out thanks to gutsy plays and play calls-- and despite an abnormally bad night from Michael Penix and co. While I have been and still am seemingly higher on Kalen DeBoer's squad than most, it's fair to admit that there is a sense of UW losing a little steam down the stretch here. But it matters not; the 12-0 record with a slew of wins over ranked teams is, at worst, the 2nd-most impressive feat of any team, and a win over Oregon Friday night will clinch them, at worst, the #3 spot in the playoff.
3. Michigan
Say what you want about Michigan, and many have: they're cheaters, they'll only lose in the playoffs again, they've played an easy schedule, they were the home team and favored team against Ohio State, etc. All may be true and/or prove to be true, but there's no denying how impressive a feat Michigan's last few weeks has been. Missing their head coach, playing their two toughest games of the season (one on the road), with virtually everyone cheering for them to lsoe, and instead they've completed a second straight perfect regular season, setting the stage for a third consecutive Top 2 seed in the playoff. All this being said, the job's not done. Unlike last year, in which the 12-0 Wolverines could have lost in the Big Ten Championship and still earned a Top-2 seed in the playoff, there is zero margin for error this year, and as laughable as Iowa's offense is, the Hawkeyes' defense and special teams will be a serious last test for Jim Harbaugh and co.
4. Florida State
Speaking of impressive feats by undefeated teams! Many (myself included) theorized, or at least wondered aloud, whether the season-ending injury to QB Jordan Travis spelled the end to Florida State's title hopes. The Seminoles cleared the first hurdle to answering "No" to that question with a come-from-behind win at Florida. I actually don't think enough people are talking about what a laudable win this was for the 'Noles: on the road at a hated rival, who needed a win to be bowl-eligible, playing without your starting QB and spotting the Gators the first 12 points, and you STILL pull out a 9-point win? That sort of toughness will be key to avoid letting Louisville upset them in Charlotte this weekend, and regardless of what the hot take artists on ESPN might opine, should they win the ACC title, there's no keeping them out of the playoff.
5. Ohio State
For as many appreciators Ohio State seems to have amidst the playoff committe and the associated press, they have at least as many skeptics amongst college football fans. And I have long been one of them! That said, when your schedule strength ranks 6th in the nation and you finish 11-1, your sole loss being a down-to-the-wire decision on the road at fellow undefeated, #2 Michigan, you might feel like you have a strong case for being the best 1-loss team in the cuontry. And it's why I expect Ohio State to fall no further than #5 in the playoff committee's rankings, putting them in prime position to sneak into the playoff if some mild chaos ensues, just like last season.
6. Texas
Texas has the resume: a Top 5 strength of record and the #13 schedule strength, their sole loss a last-second one to a good Oklahoma team, and a better win than just about anyone has on their schedule in their road victory at Alabama. But it had been a while since they truly looked like the top team they appeared to be in the first half of the season, which is what made their 50-point demolition of rivals Texas Tech on Friday night especially sweet for Longhorns fans. A lot remains between them and the postseason: they first need to win against an unpredictable Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 championship, and preferably in decisive fashion, then hope both for at least 1 upset in the other conference championships and that the committee wouldn't leapfrog Alabama over them if the Tide win the SEC. If Texas misses out because the four other Power 5 champions finish unbeaten, well, not much you can do about that; but if they miss out because a fellow 1-loss that either has an inferior strength of record or lost to them on their home field jumps them, that will be pretty tough to swallow.
7. Alabama
Sighhhh... Alabama's gonna screw around and crash the playoff again, aren't they? It just feels like one of those years, like in 2021, the last time they had a freshman QB leading them. They lost early, have spent most of the season flirting with a second, likely postseason-ending loss, and just when they finally seem to be hitting their stride, lay an absolute dud against a mediocre Auburn team, only to miraculously escape the Iron Bowl with a win thanks to heroics from the aforementioned freshman QB. Now, a couple key differences this season vs. two years ago: one, while this Georgia side probably isn't as good as the '21 edition that Bama stomped in the SEC Championship, that Georgia team's place was all but booked in the playoff; this year, a loss likely takes the Dawgs out of it, meaning a mental edge that wasn't there in the 2021 SEC title game should be there this time. And two, even if Alabama wins, it's far from a guarantee they're invited to the playoff field, as they'd potentially be compared to 3 unbeaten Power 5 champions, and 1 fellow 12-1 Power 5 champion who beat them head-to-head. But still, should the Tide win on Saturday, it's not exactly a stretch to say it may not take more than one upset in another conference championship for the committee to greenlight a 1-loss SEC champion Alabama side with a Top 5 strength of record and Top 15 strength of schedule.
8. Oregon
Many college football fans, including (evidently) the playoff committee, consider Oregon the best 1-loss team in the country, and at this point, one of the best teams in the country, period. And I don't disagree! They look phenomenal, and have for some time, all the way up through dismantling a very good Oregon State team last weekend in the last Civil War showdown in who knows how long. So keep in mind that my ranking them at #8 is not my personal opinion on how good the Ducks are, but rather a recognition of their peers' superior bodies of work. Despite the deep Pac-12 seeming like a gauntlet for much of the year, the fact remains that at this point, the only ranked win Oregon owns is over (#?) Oregon State, and their non-conference schedule was, frankly, pretty forgettable. A win over Washington on Friday changes everything, of course, but I'd hesitate to call them a lock for the postseason even in the event they exact their revenge on their PNW rivals.
9. Ole Miss
Ole Miss' 17-7 win to put a bow on a 10-2 season wasn't a pretty one, but road games against hated rivals who need a win to become bowl-eligible rarely are. Just ask Washington! There are two ways to look at the Rebels' season: one is to acknowledge that they lost to the only two great teams they played, and in the case of one of them, got destroyed. The other is to recognize that they played a Top 10 schedule, including both SEC division champions on the road as well as the likely Heisman winner, and managed to reach double-digit wins regardless.
10. Oklahoma
Oklahoma, perhaps understandably, slipped from the spotlight after their back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, and never really got back. But don't let their narrowly missing out on the Big XII Championship (and likely the New Year's Six) take away from the Sooners' impressive turnaround in Year 2 of Brent Venables. OU's two losses came by a combined 8 points (to two good teams, no less), and their thrilling victory over rivals Texas was one of the better wins anyone has to claim this season.
Just missed: Missouri, Penn State, Tulane, LSU, Louisville, whoever in North Carolina's administration is brave enough to fire everyone involved with the football program
BONUS: Bowl Projection Time!
ROSE (Semifinal): # 2 Washington vs. #3 Michigan
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