Re-Seeding The Sweet 16
UConn and North Carolina faced off in a thriller in Madison Square Garden last December. Now 1-seeds in March, the two teams have been among the most impressive of the Sweet 16 field
I wrote this piece for the first time in 2018, and boldly proclaimed the early stages of that tournament-- which featured the first-ever '16 over 1' upset --the wildest in history, which seemed fitting given the general season-long madness that year in basketball was. I wouldn't have believed it at that time, but that level of madness has been usurped, perhaps even twice over. It certainly was last year, which saw perhaps the most unhinged tournament of my lifetime: zero 1-seeds reaching the Elite 8, a 16-seed beating a 1, a 15-seed in the 2nd weekend of the tournament for the third consecutive year, and a Final Four which saw no seed higher than a 4, and three debutantes.
2023 set a near-impossible bar to clear, but given the precedent of last year and general moving and shaking that took place this season, I imagine I was one of many that expected at least some level of chaos in this year's tournament. And yet, with the first two rounds of tournament play in the rear-view, the biggest surprise of all has been the relative lack of surprises. Sure, there were some fun exceptions: SEC stalwarts and trendy Final Four picks Auburn and Kentucky falling to 13th-seeded Yale and 14th-seeded Oakland, respectively, was a twist very few would have seen coming. North Carolina State continued their stunning run, following up 5 wins in 5 days in the ACC Tournament two weeks ago with a trip to the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed. Plenty of underdogs gave high-seeded teams like Houston, Tennessee, Marquette and Creighton almighty scares.
But, this time next week, we will know who is playing in the Final Four, and with all the dust starting to settle and the picture clearer for this weekend's slates, just about every name you'd expect to be in contention is still in contention. Indeed, for all the criticism the selection committee got this year (some warranted, some not), they seemed to have nailed their seedings at least, with 12 of their top 16 seeds, including the Top 8, all skating through to the Sweet 16. So yes, the tournament very much hangs in the balance at this point. There's a chance that given the general lack of chaos beforehand, we could in fact see a pretty chalk-- maybe even the most chalk possible --Final Four. Orrrrr the madness could come back in full force, and we could again see a Final Four sans any top 3 seeds. Who knows?
Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off tomorrow night, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams, in part based on the teams' quality coming into the tournament, but in equal part as if their seasons transpired entirely over last weekend:
1-SEEDS: Very Good Teams Playing Like Very Good Teams
Connecticut ([1], 1st overall)
Beaten: (16) Stetson by 39, (9) Northwestern by 17
With two dominant wins, UConn, attempting to become the first team since Florida in 2007 to repeat as national champions, shockingly became just the 3rd reigning champion since that year to even make it past the first weekend of the tournament, and the first to do it as a 1-seed since Duke in 2011. If they can beat San Diego State in a national title rematch tomorrow night, they will be the first reigning champion since that Florida team to make it back to the Elite 8. Regardless of historical precedent, the Huskies have looked both every bit the part of #1 overall seed, and every bit as dominant as last year's title team. Contrary to the outrageous complaints Dan Hurley might lob, their path has not yet been hard, nor will it get much harder in this next round, but dismissing two opponents, the latter a very solid one, by an average of 28 points while not actually shooting the ball very well at all is playing the game on easy mode.
Purdue ([1], 3rd overall)
Beaten: (16) Grambling State by 28, (8) Utah State by 39
Precedent? What precedent? It's no secret Purdue came into this tournament with an enormous monkey on their back, as their last three trips in March have ended in increasingly stunning levels of embarrassment. A 1st-round upset to 13-seed North Texas in 2021? Annoying, but hey, it happens. A Sweet 16 loss to a 15-seed (Saint Peter's) in 2022? That...doesn't really happen. A first-round exit at the hands of their 16-seeded opponents Fairleigh-Dickinson last year? That literally had only happened once before in the entire history of the NCAA Tournament. Yet, clearly eager to put the taunts and memes behind them, likely Wooden Award winner Zach Edey and the Big Ten champs roared out of the gates in the first weekend, making light work of their double-digit-seeded opponents this time, and then blowing the doors off a decent Utah State team to follow. They slot in ever-so-slightly behind the reigning champs here because their opponents have been slightly easier, and because it's taken them a little while to get going in each game thus far. But once they have gotten going....woo boy, watch out. The Boilermakers are a locomotive that so far, do not seem to be stopping any time soon.
North Carolina ([1], 4th overall)
Beaten: (16) Wagner by 28, (9) Michigan State by 16
North Carolina was identified by many pundits and the masses alike as the most vulnerable 1-seed and an obvious choice for a first-weekend upset. And, for the first 10 minutes or so of each of their games, the Tar Heels looked intent on proving the haters right, coming out immensely flat against shorthanded Wagner in Round 1, and getting blown out of the gates by Tom Izzo's Michigan State the following game. But "North Carolina of the last 30 minutes" has looked not only like the 1-seed they are, but a bona fide title contender. A 23-9 run to close the first half in Game 1 essentially put Wagner's stunning upset dreams to bed by halftime, and sugarcoated an otherwise sloppy affair for the Tar Heels. It was Saturday's matchup against the Spartans that was more telling, though. After Michigan State made surprisingly easy work of Mississippi State in the first round, the calls came from far and wide that they were finally playing up to their Top 5-preseason-ranked potential and would upset the top seed. An explosive start that saw them leading 28-17 at the under-8 timeout in the first half had the upset prognosticators licking their chops, but all of a sudden, a switch flipped for Carolina, and a 23-3 run out of nowhere had them up 9 at halftime. The Tar Heels absolutely controlled proceedings from there on out, suffocating Michigan State's shooters on defense and running steady offense through their own reliable playmakers. Similarly slow starts will be increasingly dangerous in these latter stages of the tournament, but if Hubert Davis can get his men to start the game with the type of intensity and focus on both sides of the ball that they've been finishing games with, there are few, if any, teams in this field that can beat them.
Arizona (2)
Beaten: (15) Long Beach State by 20, (7) Dayton by 10
Arizona spent most of the calendar year hanging out near the bottom of the Top 10, but occasionally creeping up high enough to crash the 1-seed debate. Unlike their peers, the Wildcats could only blame themselves that it didn't pan out that way, as late-season losses to a bad USC team and an early exit in the conference tournament to Oregon doomed their top-seed chances. But now, they have shown a renewed focus in the first two rounds of this tournament, and despite tougher-than-you-may-expect matchups from a 15-seed and a 7-seed, they have made fairly routine work of each plucky opponent, especially in the 2nd half of each game. Only 6-seed Clemson stands between them and a chance to play in front of a friendly Los Angeles crowd for a spot in the Final Four in their home state.
2-SEEDS: Very Good Teams That Look A Little Shaky
Iowa State (2)
Beaten: (15) South Dakota State by 17, (7) Washington State by 11
In fairness to the Cyclones, things have only looked dicey for them so far in the first 25-30 minutes against a tough Washington State side, and otherwise it's been pretty smooth sailing. After nearly every other 1-seed candidate stumbled in their conference tournament and then-#7 Iowa State capped theirs off with an absolute shellacking of top-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Championship, Cyclone players and fans thought they deserved a 1-seed. They weren't given one, but their play thus far has backed up the talk. Two well-coached, tough and motivated teams in South Dakota State and the Cougars would have had lesser teams stumbling, but as mentioned, T.J. Otzelberger's men have spent 3 of the 4 halves of tournament action barely being threatened. They've lived in the shadow of bigger names all season, but there arguably isn't a hotter team in the country right now.
Houston ([1], 2nd overall)
Beaten: (16) Longwood by 40, (9) Texas A&M by 5 in OT
With less than 4 minutes remaining in regulation, I was ready to proclaim Houston one of, if not the best team left in the tournament. The 2nd overall seed had annihilated their opponents in the first round, and had seemed to finally be putting away a plucky Texas A&M team in the second round. Then, it all fell apart. A&M unleashed a 17-5 run out of nowhere in the final 2 minutes, aided by foul trouble to some key Houston players (and a couple truly baffling officiating decisions), and culminating in a buzzer-beater 3-pointer to send the game in overtime. Houston, even all the way up to their surrender-cobra-employing head coach, seemed shellshocked by the sudden turn in events, and came incredibly close to losing the game altogether; in fact, they very well might have done so were it not for the heroics of star player Jamal Shead in overtime. That the Cougars were able to regroup and close out the game in overtime was an enormous display of mental strength, but it was the warning shot to end all warning shots fired their way. Hardly any teams left in this tournament can match Houston's toughness and intensity, but if they don't avoid lapses like that from here on out, they are in danger of going home much sooner than they would like.
Tennessee (2)
Beaten: (15) Saint Peter's by 34, (7) Texas by 4
Tennessee didn't have quite the resumé Houston did coming into the tournament, and had a handful more skeptics of their tournament longevity. But like the Cougars, they have been a top team virtually all season, and their tournament experience has been near-identical. Their first round performance was as impressive as literally anyone else's, not allowing 2022 tournament darlings Saint Peter's anywhere near them (fun fact: I flipped over to this game when it was 8 minutes in, saw it was already 30-7 Tennessee, and changed the channel, and those 2 seconds were the extent that I watched). And then in the second round, seemed to also be having a relatively straightforward go of it, as their ugly shooting was far "bettered" by Texas' hideous offensive performance. Then, over the last 10 minutes or so, they struggled to find any grrove while the Longhorns found theirs, and next thing we knew, it was a 1-point game with 1 minute remaining. The Vols-- and star player Dalton Knecht in particular --saw the game out from the free throw line, but their near-collapse reminded everyone that past tournament futility could all-too-easily be repeated.
Marquette (2)
Beaten: (15) Western Kentucky by 18, (10) Colorado by 4
Many, including yours truly, circled Marquette as the weakest and most vulnerable of the top 8 seeds, thanks to their somewhat sputtering finish to the regular season. In that regard, Shaka Smart and co. deserve credit for avoiding the upset bug thus far and earning Marquette's first Sweet 16 berth in over a decade. And with reigning Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek back from injury and a favorable matchup against an 11-seed up next, bigger things could yet be ahead for the Golden Eagles. Still, between a slow and nervy opening 25 minutes in the first round, and a narrow escape after a near-collapse vs. 10th-seeded Colorado in the Round of 32, they're not exactly beating the "upset material" allegations.
3-SEEDS: Peaking At The Right Time?
Gonzaga (5)
Beaten: (12) McNeese State by 21, (4) Kansas by 21
I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering where this Gonzaga team has been all season? The Zags never really lived up to their high preseason ranking, stumbling out of the gates, and then notching a couple big wins every now and then, but all in all, spending more time out of the AP Top 25 than they have in any season in the last decade. Even their annual trip to the West Coast Conference title game was soured, as rivals St. Mary's got the better of them for the second time on the season. When they were drawn up against a 4-loss McNeese State in the first round, they became the victims of one of the trendiest first round upset picks of all. Maybe that was all that was needed to finally unlock this team, because Zaga absolutely blitzed McNeese, and then two days later, after a thrilling 1st half, did the exact same to preseason #1 team Kansas, beating the 2022 national champions by an identical margin of 21 points. Given how many folks didn't even expect Gonzaga to win one game, that they absolutely waltzed to the Sweet 16 is noteworthy, and if they're at even 80% of the level they were at in that 2nd half against the Jayhawks, top-seeded Purdue could have some real trouble on their hands.
Clemson (6)
Beaten: (11) New Mexico by 21, (3) Baylor by 8
I need someone to explain to me like I'm 5 why Clemson has so many skeptics? From the start of this tournament, people have been doubting them; I'm not sure I saw a single first-round upset as widely picked as New Mexico over Clemson, and yet, the Tigers ran the Mountain West champions out of the gym. Despite that result, next to nobody signaled the possibility of them upsetting Baylor. Yet, on Sunday, Clemson played an almost flawless first 35 minutes against the mighty Big 12's third-best team, and weathered a chaotic last few minutes (and some absurd officiating) to pull out the 8-point victory. There's an argument to be made that nobody has had a more impressive opening two games, in terms of who they beat and how they won, and yet, all the "Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams" pieces I've seen have them near the bottom, simply due to the 6 next to their name, it seems. What gives?? Arizona will certainly represent the toughest matchup of their tournament by some margin, but if the Tigers keep playing the way they have played in the first two rounds, their ceiling is enormously high.
Illinois (3)
Beaten: (14) Morehead State by 16, (11) Duquesne by 26
The Big Ten tournament champions have flown a little under the radar thus far this tournament, because they are yet to really be tested. And I mean that in more ways than one; the Illini have hardly broken a sweat thus far, racing past Morehead State in the 2nd half of the first round, and then hit cruise control against Atlantic 10 champions Duquesne en route to a 26-point victory. At the same time....their opponents were a 14-seed and an 11-seed. Reservations over just how good this Illinois team actually is are understandable. But if we see a similar performance from them against Big 12 champions Iowa State tomorrow night? Look out.
Duke (4)
Beaten: (13) Vermont by 17, (12) James Madison by 38
I slotted the Illini slightly higher because they came into the tournament as the better team, and have beaten the highest seed of either side, but really, just about everything I said about Illinois applies to Duke too. It remains to be seen how much of the early performances is fool's gold, aided by facing a 13-seed and a 12-seed. But woooo boy, Duke has looked phenomenal thus far, and against two teams that despite their low seed, were pegged by many as Cinderella contenders.
4-SEEDS: Just Happy To Be Here
Creighton (3)
Beaten: (14) Akron by 17, (11) Oregon by 13 in double OT
If you had asked Creighton fans prior to the tournament if they would "just be happy to be" in the Sweet 16, I'm sure they would say no. After all, the Bluejays are a 3-seed, were the last team to beat #1 UConn, and came within a second of the Final Four last season. They expected to be here! But that was before they had a surprisingly harrowing first couple rounds. They ended up pulling away from Akron in the first round, but it was much closer than they would have liked at halftime. And then on Saturday night, they got an almighty scare from Pac-12 tournament champs Oregon, and realistically, were one Nfaly Dante made free throw away from losing in regulation. Dante missed both, though, and Creighton relished the opportunity to send the game in overtime, and when one overtime wasn;'t enough, they eventually, finally, found their shooting stroke in the 2nd OT to put away the Ducks for good. They're still a balanced team with a terrific ceiling, but they will have to play a lot better, especially on the offensive side of the ball, to match up with Tennessee and Purdue in the coming weekend.
Alabama (4)
Beaten: (13) College of Charleston by 13, (12) Grand Canyon by 11
Alabama's had a pretty similar transcript as Illinois and Duke to date, having to face up only against a 12 and 13-seed thus far. The difference is, they haven't dispatched with their overmatched opponents with nearly as much ease as those two teams. They did, to their credit, win in two wildly different ways; first, a 200+ point shootout with College of Charleston, and then on Sunday, an absolute scrapfest against Grand Canyon in maybe the ugliest game of the tournament so far. In both cases, though, they looked far from dominant against the double-digit seeds, and while an upset of North Carolina tomorrow is absolutely possible given their shooting ability, they will need to find a level they have not yet even come close to finding yet to achieve it.
North Carolina State (11)
Beaten: (6) Texas Tech by 13, (14) Oakland by 6 in OT
I mentioned it in the outset, but the run that North Carolina State has been on is truly remarkable. Two weeks ago today, the Wolfpack had little to no shot at even making the NCAA tournament. Then the 10-seed in the ACC tournament rattled off 5 wins in 5 days, including over the top 3 teams in the conference, to win their first ACC tournament title in nearly 40 years. Many were curious if the magic was confined to that week in D.C., but the momentum carried into the postseason with a first-round upset of 6th-seeded Texas Tech, behind a surprisingly dominant 2nd half. Then, the magic came dangerously close to running out against an even bigger Cinderella story, as 14th-seed Oakland, fresh off their stunning upset of Kentucky, led by 3 with under a minute left. Fortune smiled on State, as some rare missed open looks by Jack Gohlke and crucial (and wrong) officiating decisions extended the game to OT, but give credit to Kevin Keatts' men for pulling it together and gritting out an overtime victory. It's still hard to tell how much of this is NC State figuring out the sum of its parts and how much of it is a fortunate streak of good matchups, but it's safe to conclude nobody is exactly eager to see the Wolfpack at this point.
San Diego State (5)
Beaten: (12) UAB by 4, (13) Yale by 28
San Diego State, last year's runners-up (it still feels surreal to say that) are back in the Sweet 16 for the 4th time in the last decade, a mark that's best for mid-majors not named Gonzaga. If we're being honest, though, they've done it in...less-than-impressive fashion. The Aztecs came perilously close to a first-round exit, before a late surge saw them hold off 12th-seeded UAB. Things got a lot easier for them in the next round, but it came at the expense of easily the worst team to make the Round of 32, a tough but immensely flawed Yale side. The good news for the Aztecs? Just about everything I said above also applied to the 2023 edition of San Diego State, as well as 2022 Arkansas, both of whom I seeded dead last out of their respective Sweet 16. Immediately after that ranking, my 16th-ranked team went on to upset the #1 overall seed, and in SDSU's case, that led to a stunning national championship run, where they ultimately fell to UConn. Up next for this team? A 2023 championship rematch with #1 overall seed UConn tomorrow night.
Updated Final Four Picks:
East: (1) Connecticut
South: (1) Houston
Midwest: (3) Creighton
West: (2) Arizona
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