Premier League Predictions, Week 31(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! Last week saw not only the return of domestic league action, but European football, in the form of Champions League and Europa League quarterfinals. With the last crucial international break behind us until the end of the season, it's only club bangers from here on out, guys. The most wonderful time of the year!

Just like last time out, my predictions in the last week started well before going south suddenly and aggressively. I didn't have to try too hard to come to the correct conclusion that title contenders Liverpool and Manchester City would win their matches against relegation-threatened Watford and Burnley. But my confidence in Chelsea's and Arsenal's form was not rewarded, as the London clubs fell in massive upsets to other London clubs Brentford and Crystal Palace. I also errantly believed Manchester United would defeat Leicester City, when they ended up settling for a draw. My second consecutive 2/5 outing brings me to 61.5/120 on the year, which is creeping a whole lot closer to 50% than I would like.

But! The matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time fearing mediocrity. Here are your 5 for Week 29/30/31/32, depending on which team you cheer for!

Everton vs. Manchester United

Arsenal’s unexpected capitulation to Crystal Palace gave a lift to multiple teams, Manchester United not the least among them. United’s unimpressive home draw with Leicester seemed to put their Top 4 odds on life support, but as it turned out they actually inched closer to Arsenal in 4th place, now sitting just 3 points behind them, albeit with one more match played. And the news keeps getting better for United fans: next up is Everton, who Frank Lampard has not managed to look any less hapless in his short reign there. Everton are teetering on the verge of the unthinkable (relegation), and it would be a shock if things get any better for them this weekend, with the Red Devils ready to pounce on the opportunity for a Top 4 spot.

The Pick: Manchester United, 3-0

Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Arsenal's performance against Crystal Palace, considering the context, was one of the worst-timed flops this season. The Gunners had a chance to not only tighten the screws in their grip on 4th place but take them within 2 points of Chelsea in 3rd place, and instead got run off the pitch in Selhurst Park to the tune of a 3-0 loss. As a result, this weekend they're now in what could not-unfairly be described as must-win territory. The good news is, the match is at home and it's against a club they can and should beat. The bad news is, as we saw early in the season, Brighton are also no walkover, and anything less than a win for the Gunners could spell real trouble.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-1

Southampton vs. Chelsea

I've spent so many weeks now predicting that Chelsea's fall out of title race contention and the furor over their change in ownership and ramifications from the FA would spell trouble on the pitch, only for the Blues to keep winning. So last week I finally give them the credit they're due and predict that they will beat Brentford and at least draw Real Madrid in the Champions League. And how do they repay me? They choose then to have the week from hell, losing both matches by a total aggregate of 2-7. Given that they still have plenty to pay for, and this Southampton side doesn't exactly strike fear into too many hearts, I'll roll with a Chelsea win again this weekend, but if they drop this one as well, they've lost me.

The Pick: Chelsea, 3-1

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Another side benefitting from Arsenal's surprise slip? Their hated rivals, Tottenham. Spurs' rampant victory over Newcastle, coupled with Arsenal's loss to Palace, drew the two North London sides level on points. And though Arsenal have played one less match, Spurs do have the superior goal differential, which mean they're very much back in the thick of things. Still, even with both of their Manchester City matches (both wins) behind them, it's hard not to like Tottenham's remaining road a little less, starting with this weekend, which sees them take a road trip to Birmingham to play Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa. Villa have dropped three in a row, but are a solid side desperate for an uptick in form, and I think that all might spell a difficult afternoon for their opponents.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Manchester City vs. Liverpool

Here it is: undoubtedly the biggest match of the season, and arguably one of the biggest Premier League matches of the last several seasons. We suddenly find ourselves in the thick of a Premier League race as tight as any in the last eight years at least, on par with the wild 2018-19 season, which saw these two very clubs go wire to wire, battling to the very end. But in that season, the final matchup between the two title contenders took place in the middle of January, so while Manchester City's win over Liverpool then would ultimately prove to be the difference between them, there were still plenty of matches to be played at that time. This year, with the teams separated by only one point, they face off with a mere 8 matches remaining, and not only that, their showdown comes amidst a treble quest for City, and a quadruple quest for Liverpool. Both teams won their first quarterfinal leg in the Champions League, positioning them nicely to be among the final four, and these two face each other next Saturday for a spot in the FA Cup Final. They're very likely the two best teams in the world currently, and yet they can't seem to get out of each other's way.

So close is the race that a win for either side absolutely does not guarantee the Premier League title; both Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola have already laughed off such assertions. But it would make the winner a clear leader at the top and favorite to take the trophy moving forward. And that dynamic, I think, could make for a real treat to us fans, as I highly doubt either side will be interested in settling for the draw, committing instead to going for the win in an effort to help themselves and harm their greatest rival in one fell swoop. And if it is going to be a draw, it very well may be the delightful kind that we saw between these two at Anfield back at October, a pulsating, down-to-the-wire 2-2 thriller that saw world-class goals from star players and a tactical masterclass from both sides. I've racked my brain on how this one will play out, and I just can't see any other result than a draw similar to that again. Both teams are so good, this match means so much, and though Liverpool have had the more reliable form (and currently, the healtheir team), City have them at home. Both sides are, of course, more than capable of winning, but I don't think either one will.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2