Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 1

After several months of spitting out weekly predictions for England's domestic league, we've reached the point in another competition where it's high time I start generating the same analysis for club soccer's premier tournament: the Champions League!

I promise I have been following the tournament from the start and am not just now turning into the tournament. In case you are doing just that, though, here's a quick rundown on the biggest stories you've missed thus far:

• Manchester City and Liverpool, in the midst of a heated Premier League race, managed to also top the groups of death, the latter by winning every single game

• German stalwarts Borussia Dortmund and Spanish giants Barcelona both stunningly missed the knockout stages, both falling at the hands of the top two finishers of last season's Portuguese Primeira Liga

• Moldovan champions Sheriff Tiraspol ultimately fell in the group stages, but scored a historic, famous win over Real Madrid and briefly topped their group

• Cristiano Ronaldo scored stoppage-time winners/equalizers in three consecutive matches to help Manchester United top their group

• Atlético Madrid won the second leg of their Round of 16 match in Old Trafford to eliminate Manchester United

• Inter Milan became only the 3rd team all season to defeat Liverpool in any competition, and the first to beat them in Anfield, but Liverpool's 2-0 win in Milan still saw them through to the quarterfinals

• Benfica scored a 1-0 win in Amsterdam despite only managing one shot on goal to stun Dutch champions Ajax and progress to the quarterfinals
  

• Real Madrid, down 2-0 aggregate at halftime in the second leg, ended up breaking Paris Saint-Germain's hearts thanks to Karim Benzema's 18-minute hat trick, confirming in the process the second straight quarterfinal stage without either Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi

Now, to this week's slate of games:

Benfica vs. Liverpool

Benfica's reward for progressing from a group with Bayern Munich and Barcelona and stunning Ajax in the Round of 16? A date with Liverpool, who are currently in a quadruple hunt and have 52 points out of 57 in the year 2022. Benfica's prior performances against Barcelona and Ajax in particular have offered ample reasons for elite teams to not overlook them, and Liverpool, who were far from scintillating this past weekend vs. Watford, could be forgiven if they were looking forward to their massive clash against Manchester City this coming weekend. But in the end, while Benfica could very well make this difficult at their home stadium, I think Liverpool will just be too good.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0

Manchester City vs. Atlético Madrid

Manchester City could not have been pleased with the results of this draw, which posited them on the same side of the bracket as both Madrid teams and league rivals Chelsea, all while they're in the middle of an intense Premier League and FA Cup race with Liverpool. But I have to imagine it's Atlético that feel especially hard done by in getting drawn into this 'bracket of death,' though they've gotten plenty of experience with England's elite this tournament already. Liverpool's attack was able to successfully confound Diego Simeone's vaunted defensive style, but they more than held their own against Manchester United. That said, while we've seen Atleti upset many a seemingly superior team over the years, City's level is clearly more that of Liverpool than of United. I'd be surprised if they faltered at home.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-0

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

Storylines abound in this one: it's a rematch of last year's semifinal tie. It's two of the original wealthy mega-clubs. It's the reigning champion vs. the winningest team in this competition. But the storyline that intrigues me most is the form of both these sides. Chelsea had been remarkably consistent despite the very public ordeal surrounding the removal of their Russian owner, but that came crashing to a halt last weekend with a home blowout loss to Brentford. Real Madrid had been cruising to the top of La Liga, but their brush with Champions League elimination by PSG and recent 4-0 drubbing by rivals Barcelona has raised some concerns about their form. So who wins this tilt between two massively talented but perhaps inconsistent teams? My head says Real Madrid win, my gut says Chelsea win. I'll split the difference.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Villarreal vs. Bayern Munich

It's an amazing feat that Villarreal are in the Champions League quarterfinals, and their second leg at Juventus showed they have real talent to go with their scrappiness. But I just can't see them taking out Bayern Munich, who represents a steep uptick in quality from their opponents to date. Bayern's defense can be leaky at times and Villarreal has some attacking firepower, so they might get some good chances, but I think that back line is in trouble. Plus, after letting Salzburg hold them to a draw in the first leg last round, I expect Bayern might be more eager to close out proceedings in the first leg this time.

The Pick: Bayern Munich, 5-2