Premier League Predictions, Week 22(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! We're still nearly a month away from the return of Champions League and Europa League action, but thanks to a League Cup semifinal and some COVID reschedules, we still got our fix of #midweekfootball.

Speaking of COVID, the pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the Premier League season, spurring cancellations and postponements everywhere. The table has started to resemble last season's-- and not just because Manchester City is widening the gap at the top! --the way some teams have 6 less matches played than others. It makes these predictions somewhat difficult, because who knows if a match will even be played? That was the case for one of mine last week, with Arsenal v. Tottenham being scrapped at the 11th hour. But who am I kidding, I probably should root for more cancellations! That would have stopped the bleeding from my miserable outing last week. I successfully forecast the Manchester teams beating Chelsea and Brentford, respectively, and am giving myself partial credit for predicting Aston Villa would steal points off Manchester United (albeit less than I thought). But Steven Bergwijn's two goals in the last two minutes of stoppage time meant I missed my Leicester-Tottenham prediction, and I wasn't even close to getting the other three match predictions correct, which rendered a 2.5/7 week. That brings my season total to 44.5/82, which, ouch.

But, the midweek matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time looking finding excuses for my poor play. Here are your 5 for Week 22/23/24/18, depending on which team you cheer for!

Manchester United vs. West Ham United

Last weekend kicked off with with what was likely the penultimate title tilt of the season. This weekend kicks off with a battle for the Top 4 between the current 7th and 4th-placed teams, respectively, though obviously it's a bit hard to gauge that at the moment with the discrepancy in matches played. Look, these are two wildly inconsistent teams that have shown no signs of getting a consistent grip, so it goes like this: Manchester United looked good and got a big win against Brentford on Wednesday. West Ham completely and inexplicably capitulated at home against Leeds last weekend. So now it's time for West Ham to win again, and United to lose again. It's usually not that simple, but in this case I think it is.

The Pick: West Ham, 2-1

Southampton vs. Manchester City

After a bad start, Southampton have actually quietly been much better of late. The Saints have just two losses since Thanksgiving weekend, and those two were to Arsenal and Wolves, two Top 8 teams. Still, Manchester City is at a different level altogether, to put it mildly. The "prone to bizarre losses and draws" City side seems to have been kept in 2021, and this side is soaring towards yet another Premier League title at the moment.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-1

Arsenal vs. Burnley

It was pretty stunning to glance at the Premier League table and see Burnley, who have become top-division stalwarts under Sean Dyche, in dead last. Upon closer inspection, you then realized they've played three less matches than the two other sides in the relegation zone, and a whopping five less matches than previous cellar-dwellars Norwich City; still, it's not been a great season for them, and they're in real trouble of dropping down if they can't right the ship. Unfortunately for them, their opponents this weekend will also be desperate to right the ship. Arsenal haven't won a match in the year 2022. Now, to be fair, due to COVID suspensions they haven't even had the opportunity to play a Premier League match since their competitive loss to City on New Year's Day, but still, after exiting both the FA Cup and the League Cup in recent weeks and seeing their Top 4 competitors slowly start racking up points, the Gunners will be eager to get back to winning ways, and I think they will do so.

The Pick: Arsenal, 1-0

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool

Even as recently as a week ago, I might have gone for a draw, if not a full on win for Crystal Palace here - my confidence in Liverpool was that shaken. And to be clear, it's definitely premature to say Liverpool is "back"; even if it were possible for them to regain October/November 2021 levels of quality, it certainly won't happen until Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané return from the African Cup of Nations. Still, in their league win over Brentford last weekend, and League Cup triumph at Arsenal at Thursday, it seems a corner might have been turned. Diogo Jota is stepping up in a major way in the African forwards' absence, and the defense is shoring up, having pitched three straight shutout. I won't be surprised if I'm wrong, but I'll say Liverpool in a nailbiter.

The Pick: Liverpool, 1-0

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hostpur

This London derby is a rematch of the recently-played League Cup semifinal, but is also a showdown between two clubs in totally opposite form. The title race is all but officially off for Chelsea, who have now dropped 18 points in their last 10 matches, and meanwhile Tottenham is suddenly making a massive top 4 push, in the midst of the race with several games in hand. If there were any remaining doubt (and there were, from at least one corner-- mine) that Chelsea's form was in serious crisis mode, Tuesday's draw at Brighton, a team that just snagged a point off of them two weeks prior, removed that doubt. Their standing is still okay for now, but that belies a real danger of total freefall. Because this is a big match, and because they are playing at home, I think they will still be at least good enough to get a draw, but I've lost the ability to confidently say they'll avoid dropping points, especially to a side as Tottenham are presently.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1