Premier League Predictions, Week 22

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! Yes, it has once again been mere days since you last heard from me. I'm not responsible for the insanely compressed fixture schedule, I'm just doing what I can to keep up. Does that make me a hero? It's not for me to say. But yes. Yes it does.

My predictions last time out were anything but heroic, although you could have been fooled by my start to the week. I aced my first couple picks, correctly forecasting a gritty Manchester City victory and an Arsenal-ManU draw. Then my little brother texted me that it was "shaping up to be my best PL predictions yet," effectively jinxing it. I proceeded to whiff on my last 3, missing the Chelsea, Leeds, and Liverpool wins in a row. Yet another 2/5 week takes me to 41.5/90 on the season, a percentage that is getting uglier and uglier.

But, the matches are less than 24 hours away from starting back up, so let's not waste any more time with regret and misery. Here are your 5 for Week 22!

Manchester United vs. Southampton

In the span of three days, Manchester United's title dreams took two serious blows. While crosstown rivals Manchester City punched in two wins to take the lead atop the table, the Red Devils followed up their embarrassing loss to Sheffield United with a draw at Arsenal in which several chances to get all 3 points went askew. Having now ceded a 3-point lead to City, United will be desperate to get back to winning ways, but so too will their opponents, who have taken just 6 points from their last 24 after reaching the Top 4, slipping all the way to the bottom half of the league. Southampton will be urgently pressing for a win, and got a terrific Signing Day deal in Liverpool loanee Takumi Minamino, but it's hard to feel like they've done anything but regress to the mean at this point. I expect United to get back on the horse in this one, albeit not easily.

The Pick: Manchester United, 2-1

Burnley vs. Manchester City

I suppose it was tunnel vision, but once Burnley became the first side to win a Premier League match at Anfield in nearly 4 years by working their dark magic against Liverpool, I sort of assumed this was the return of the Clarets at their gritty, tactical, defensive best. Instead, Burnley has conceded 4 goals in two matches, the latter in a loss at Chelsea. Meanwhile, it's league leaders Manchester City that have battened down the hatches, conceding 2 goals in their last 12 league matches, including 5 straight clean sheets. I'm not making the mistake of picking Burnley again; City rolls.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-0

Fulham vs. Leicester City

Just when I thought I was ready to remove the "exciting but unreliable" label from Leicester City, they capitulate at home to an equally enigmatic Leeds United side. There's not a ton of shame in losing to Marcelo Bielsa's side, but it was a terrible time for the Foxes' unbeaten streak to end. Their 1 point from their last 6 has seen two clubs jump them in the standings, and City widen the gap over them. Still, Leicester is sitting in the Top 4, a standing they'll be fighting hard to maintain. A hard fight is what they'll have in this next match, though; Fulham have not only been tough for anyone to beat at Craven Cottage, they've legitimately been playing good football over the last several weeks. However, their shortcomings have been just present enough to render them incapable of escaping the relegation zone. I think the combination of the need to get something other than 0 points and Leicester's current form will give them the push they need this week.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Liverpool's whole season seems to have been defined by two steps forward, three steps back. Though I doubt Jürgen Klopp and Liverpool fans would have traded their two dominant victories in the last week for anything, given how much goals and wins were craved, the loss of Joel Matip for the season is yet another excruciating injury blow. The Reds started the 2020-21 season with 3 first-team center backs, and now have lost all 3 to season-ending injuries. They'll likely be somewhat bouyed by their 11th hour double CB signing on this Deadline Day, but the fact that a blend of unknown commodities and midfielders will shape their back line the whole rest of the season is not encouraging. Test #1 comes on Wednesday against a Brighton side who drew them last time, and who . The good news for Liverpool is that the proverbial corner turn in form appears to be real, and the Gulls got their much-needed victory yesterday over Tottenham. I expect a match similar to this very fixture last season, in which Liverpool jumps out to an early lead, then faces a nervy final 20 minutes or so as they try to hang on to their lead.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea

Just 5 or 6 weeks ago, if you told fans of these London rivals that their teams would be level on points, they would likely assume it was a tie at the top of the league table. You know why? Because 5-6 weeks ago, Tottenham and Chelsea were first and second in the Premier League table. But both have gone on near-identical stretches of poor form: for Tottenham, it's been 2 wins from their last 8, and for Chelsea, 3 wins of their last 10, and the loss of their manager in the meantime. As a result, they sit in 6th and 7th places, respectively; not our of European contention by any means, but far off from where they would have hoped to be at this point. So who wins this Derby To Restore Good Graces? Well, Chelsea have impressed with how quickly they seem to be adapting to elements of Thomas Tuchel's style of play, and Spurs have done just about anything but impress of late. But even at this point in his career, there are few managers you'd trust in a big match as much as Jose Mourinho, and it seems a little early in the new regime to predict the Blues taking all 3 points from a match such as this.