Premier League Predictions, Week 21(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! And more importantly, welcome to 2022!

If it seems like it’s been a long time since you heard from me, well, that’s because it has been quite a while. Almost exactly a month, in fact. My hiatus wasn’t planned, but between being home for the holidays, the mad rush of fixture pileup and the seemingly never-ending slew of COVID cancellations, I figured it may be easier to just wait until the new year to get back to it.

So, in the likely event that you don’t remember all the way back in mid-December, last time out I actually had a pretty splendid week of predictions. I threw out a gauntlet of 7 predictions, and nailed almost each and every one; the sole exception was failing to predict Everton's shock draw with Chelsea the weekend before Christmas, but really, who saw that coming? My 6/7 outing helped me end 2021 out with a 42/75 mark, which is a whole lot better than my numbers this time last year.

But, the midweek matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time looking back longingly at yesteryear. Here are your 8 for Week 22 (for most teams, at least)!

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

What a way for the weekend to kickoff, for a would-be title tilt between the leaders and 2nd-placed team. I say "would be" only because Manchester City's coronation appears inevitable at this point, but obviously a Chelsea win here would be a real warning shot that this race isn't over. For City, this is a chance to replicate their "upset" at Stamford Bridge in September, which was their announcement that everyone was writing them off as title favorites too soon. A win here would just about rubber stamp their title, and while I think Chelsea will give them a hell of a game, probably more of a game than their current form suggests they will, in the end City's too good and too deep to hang with right now.

The Pick: Man City, 3-2

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

Steven Gerrard's bright start as Aston Villa manager has faded quickly, with three losses from their last four. However, his side will have a chance to avenge their last loss, an 1-0 FA Cup defeat on Monday to Manchester United, who comes to town this weekend. On paper, United should win once more, but the same consistency problems that plagued them under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer have persisted under interim manager Ralf Rangnick. That's not a good recipe for a team-- and a manager -- that will be fired up for revenge in short succession.

The Pick: Aston Villa, 2-1

West Ham United vs. Leeds United

West Ham is still in the thick of the Top 4 race, thanks in no small part to their three-match winning streak. Given the way their season has gone, I should probably expect the Hammers to drop a point now. But the truth is at this point I trust them more than disappointing Leeds, especially at home.

The Pick: West Ham, 3-1

Liverpool vs. Brentford

It seems like just yesterday that Liverpool were at the forefront of title contention, but now the Reds haven't won a Premier League match in a whole month, and in fact have just 1 win out of their last 6 matches in all competitions. The last time these teams played, Brentford were the first club to take points off Liverpool in a wild comeback draw in London. The revenge factor, their desperation for a win, a home crowd, and Brentford's relative dip in form since that first showdown all should equal a clear Liverpool win. But I just have lost confidence in this team to see out matches they should win, especially with Mo Salah, Sadio Mané, and Naby Keïta all away on African Cup of Nations duty.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Tottenham Hostpur vs. Arsenal

The North London Derby is in doubt due to COVID concerns on Arsenal's side in particular, but is still officially on as of this writing. As a neutral, I certainly hope it's played because it should be a barnburner, but I also would rather it be played with the two sides close to full health, because of the stakes at hand. Besides the usual rivalry fireworks, this is a showdown between two teams quietly in very good form, fighting for Top 4 odds. Arsenal won 4 in a row before a close, some might say unlucky loss to Manchester City, and Spurs are actually undefeated in their last 8 in the Premier League. Tottenham is the healthier of the two and is at home, but Arsenal is the better, more cohesive team at the moment. I think the Gunners will be able to at least share the spoils here.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Chelsea

This is sneakily a big match for a Tuesday night billing with little fanfare. Chelsea will still be fighting for their title race survival, perhaps even more desperately so after Saturday, and Brighton is back in the Top 4 hunt after regaining some momentum and recapturing some of their early-season form. These two played a thriller just two weeks ago, as Brighton snagged a (deserved) late equalizer at Stamford Bridge. The Gulls will be tough for an out-of-form Chelsea once again, but I think the Blues will be hyper-focused on finishing the job this time.

The Pick: Chelsea, 2-1

Leicester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur

This match is probably also in question, with Leicester's weekend match officially called off and Tottenham's up in the air. But if it goes forward as scheduled on Wednesday, it has the potential to be a cracker, as it usually is when these two face off. Leicester has been a bit of a disappointment this year, but Jamie Vardy is still the biggest goalscoring threat on the field, and the Foxes have shown signs of life with a near-epic comeback against Manchester City sandwiched in between a blowout of Newcastle and stunning upset of Liverpool. This one could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised, but I think the two will fight to an evenly-matched draw.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Brentford vs. Manchester United

The outcome of this Wednesday match is very likely contingent on this weekend's results. It would likely be a good, entertaining fixture anyhow, a clash of styles between a talented but identity-less United and a cohesive but shorthanded Brentford. But if United do in fact lose to Aston Villa tomorrow as I've predicted, and especially if Brentford also do in fact steal points from Liverpool, the Red Devils will have the mental edge and I can't see them dropping points in consecutive matches.

The Pick: Manchester United, 1-0