Europa League and Champions League Predictions: Semifinals, Leg 2
If you're looking for a reason as to why I dropped a couple Champions League predictions for the Quarterfinal stages, said nothing about the 1st leg of the Semifinals, and now have come back in the middle of the Semifinal stage but with the Europa League competition included, it's really quite simple. It was not, as you might expect, a mark of protest or grief in the wake of my beloved Liverpool's exit from the competition. Rather, between the loaded domestic soccer schedule, and *gesturing widely* other things going on life, I completely forgot that: a. the Europa League, club football's equivalent to the NIT, had also reached the Semifinal stage, and b. those European matches were already starting back up again last week.
But indeed here we are, back in Europe this week, and come Thursday evening, we will know the teams playing not only in the vaunted Champions League Final, but its little brother, the Europa League Final. In case you rely on me for all fútbol news and missed the first leg of both tournaments, let's get you up to speed.
Last year, four different nations (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) were represented in the two championship games, but just one year before that, it was an all-England affair in both cases, as Liverpool bested Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League, while Chelsea did the same to Arsenal in the Europa League. If Leg 1 of the semifinals was any indication, 2021 has a good chance of looking an awful lot like 2019. In the Europa League on Thursday, Arsenal did lose, becoming the sole English team to enter this week behind on aggregate, but they did pull in a crucial away goal and halve their deficit. Elsewhere in the Europa League, Manchester United erupted in the 2nd half to completely demolish Roma and stick one foot in the title game. As for the Champions League, Chelsea, fronted by Christian "American Messi" Pulisic both found the net and held on for a draw on the road at Real Madrid, and Manchester City did a 180 after halftime to come from behind and beat Paris Saint-Germain in France.
If your alliance lies not with a specific club but rather the United Kingdom as a whole, it very well could be a rosy week for you. But let's not dilly-dally around with vague statements, here's my take on this week's slate of matches:
Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Although Manchester City do deserve credit for their comeback victory last week, it'd be inaccurate to call what happened in that match anything but a PSG collapse. In the first half, the Parisians absolutely bossed proceedings, flummoxing Manchester City more than most every team has managed to this season, and really, should have been ahead by more than 1-0 at halftime. They came out noticeably flatter in the 2nd half, but the last 30 minutes in particular were an absolute clinic in capitulation. Sloppy defending allows Kevin De Bruyne's harmless cross to bounce all the way into the goal, then a foolish foul sets City up nicely right outside the box, and Riyad Mahrez slams home the ensuing free kick right through a wall that fails to hold, then late on, Idrissa Gueye's reckless challenge sees PSG down to 10 men as they tried to get back into the match. When all was said and done, the hosts were actually lucky to "only" lose 2-1, and perhaps that fact will be enough to give Mauricio Pochettino and co. a little bit of hope heading into Manchester tomorrow. But I just can't see it happening; between Neymar, Mbappé and Di Maria, PSG absolutely have the firepower to score a miraculous recovery, but at full health, City's back line is a match. Recent Champions League futility aside, I can't see Pep Guardiola squandering this comfortable of a lead at this point in the competition. I expect a good while of PSG launching forward and battering the Man City goal to no avail, which will set the Citizens up nicely for a late, tie-securing, counterattacking goal.
The Pick: Manchester City, 1-0 (Manchester City advance 3-1 on aggregate)
Chelsea vs. Real Madrid
Just a few months ago it would have been crazy to say this, but Chelsea feel to me like a Champions League Final team. Their form under Thomas Tuchel has been a night-and-day improvement from the first half of the season, so much so that the only aberrations in his tenure were a couple unimpressive domestic draws, and a shock loss to West Brom that ultimately cost them nothing in the Premier League race. Real Madrid is still Real Madrid, but they clearly have not been their best selves most of this season, and Chelsea were able to take advantage of their defensive vulnerabilities in a way Liverpool weren't in the last round. The Blues will be kicking themselves for both not scoring again despite some golden opportunities, and especially for allowing a brilliant Karim Benzema equalizer due to poor set piece marking. But all things considered, coming back to London on level terms and with an away goal in hand is not a bad place to be at all. Since the additions of Edouard Mendy in goal and Ben Chilwell in the back line, Chelsea have shown ability to lock things down when needed, and I imagine that will be the exact outcome when the two sides face off on Wednesday.
The Pick: Draw, 0-0 (Aggregate level at 1-1; Chelsea advance on away goals, 1-0)
Roma vs. Manchester United
Despite very few moments of quality from either team, the first half of Manchester United-Roma saw 3 goals, and 2 of them belonged to the away side. Even taking United's sterling away form into account, Roma holding on to a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford would have cast the Red Devils' Europa League chances in serious doubt. Instead, United absolutely exploded out of the gates in the 2nd half, scoring 5 goals in 40 minutes and basically ensuring they will avoid a second-consecutive semifinal exit at this tournament.
It's hard to know what to expect from the 2nd leg of this tie, because it's basically over. Say what you want about Roma's quality, playing in the Stadio Olimpico, etc., but they're not winning this match 4-0. They just aren't. I imagine Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will feel very little obligation to play any sort of forward football, and so we'll spend much of the match witnessing Manchester United buffeting attacks. Don't be surprised if Roma snag a goal or two late on, when Solskjaer feels comfortable enough with the margin to have made several subs. Do be surprised if Roma come anywhere close to putting a legitimate scare into their opponents.
The Pick: Roma, 2-0 (Manchester United advance 6-4 on aggregate)
Arsenal vs. Villarreal
Under 3 managers now, the ever-enigmatic Arsenal have been the epitome of an inconsistent side the last many years. So it perhaps should have been expected that the Gunners would follow their dominant 4-0 quarterfinal rout with a sloppy, uninspired performance in the first leg at Villarreal. The good news for them? Right when it looked like 10-man Arsenal had one foot out of the competition, they pulled a goal back thanks to a questionable penalty, and soon after, saw Villarreal also reduced to 10 men, setting up a 2nd leg with some drama (and with no Dani Ceballos or Étienne Capoue, due to the red cards).
Call it Premier League bias or experience with Arsenal's flip-flopping form, but especially in the wake of their solid league victory this weekend, a big part of me thinks the Gunners will absolutely ball out in this 2nd leg and overturn their deficit, much the way they did in the quarterfinal stage, or the way Liverpool did against Villarreal in the 2016 Europa League semis. But I just can't bring myself to actually predict it. Away goal or no, overturning a 2-1 deficit against a solid team requires a degree of mental strength that I'm yet to see from this Arsenal side, and like their opponents, Villarreal are a talented squad that are fighting for Champions League survival themselves. I don't know if it will be before or after Arsenal score, but I think the Spaniards ultimately get one goal that secures their safety, and find a way to hold on in the Emirates Stadium and ruin dreams of an all-English final.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1 (Villarreal advance 3-2 on aggregate)
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