Champions League Predictions: Semifinals, Leg 1

It's almost May, which indicates we're reaching the home stretch of the club football season. Case in point: just two weeks after the last round of Champions League action, we're back at it this week, with the semifinals kicking off tomorrow. And you know what that means. In less than 24 hours, we get to experience some more terrific, pulsating football, and more importantly, the greatest anthem in the world.

It's safe to say the second leg of quarterfinal action did not go as I expected. Nor, I would guess, as most people expected. While three of the four teams I anticipated progressing did in fact progress, the matches themselves played out quite differently. Even the one result I technically got right did not go exactly to plan; Liverpool did progress with a draw against Benfica, but it was not a tepid, cautious draw but rather a wild, back-and-forth 3-3 affair. Manchester City was held to a draw, not a victory, though that was enough to see them through to the next round. Not only did Real Madrid not win their second leg at home, they lost it, and came incredibly close to losing the tie as well; they ultimately survived in overtime, thanks to Rodrygo, Karim Benzema, and VAR. And in the one result I got COMPLETELY wrong, Bayern Munich failed to beat Villarreal at home, settling instead for a 1-1 draw which saw the Spanish Cinderella story stunningly through to the semifinals, joining three giants.

Now, to this week's two matches!

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

I've gone back and forth so many times on how this tie will play out, and I really don't know. I think Manchester City is the better, deeper, more in-form team. I also think, whether it's pressure, whether it's Pep Guardiola, whatever it may be, they just don't know how to win this tournament, whereas doing so is practically hewn in to Real Madrid's DNA. I also think Madrid essentially having the La Liga title wrapped up while Manchester City is in the midst of an almighty fight in the Premier League with Liverpool could benefit the visitors. Still, in what promises to be a thrilling tactical battle, I can't pick against the better team at home.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-1

Liverpool vs. Villarreal

A surprising run this deep in the Champions League is not unlike a Cinderella team making it to the Final Four in college basketball. On the one hand, at a certain point you expect the cream to surely rise to the top. On the other hand, if a Cinderella story has already beaten great team X and great team Y, why couldn't they beat great team Y?! To that end, it's a bit difficult to project Liverpool vs. Villarreal. Surely Liverpool, one of the best teams in the entire World, with one of the strongest home-field advantages of anyone, can beat a small club currently sitting at 7th place in La Liga. At the same time, if Villarreal can beat Juventus and Bayern Munich on the road, why should we expect anything different against Liverpool? I really could see this playing out any which way; we could see the perhaps expected Liverpool rout in front of a raucous Anfield. We could also see a well-drilled Villarreal frustrate the Reds all night and earn a famous draw or even victory. In the end, I think we'll see something kind of in between. I think, in fact, we'll see a match that resembles Liverpool's weekend clash with Everton pretty closely; the Yellow Submarine will sit back, defend and confound their hosts for a long while, but the loaded Reds will eventually find a way through. If I'm wrong. and Villarreal don't lose this match, I'm never picking against them again.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0