Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 1

After several months of spitting out weekly predictions for England's domestic league, we've reached the point in another competition where it's high time I start generating the same analysis for club soccer's premier tournament: the Champions League.

I promise I have been following the tournament from the start and am not just now turning into the tournament. In case you are doing just that, though, I did a primer on the draw for this quarterfinal stage. In addition, here's a quick rundown on the biggest stories you've missed thus far:

• Current Serie A frontrunners Inter Milan finished last place in their group and were eliminated from all European competition

• Manchester United fell from 1st place in their group to eliminated from the competition with a single loss on the final matchday of group play

• Bayern Munich became the first defending champion in 3 years to progress past the Round of 16, thanks to a dominant performance against Lazio

• La Liga frontrunners Atlético Madrid were eliminated in the Round of 16 having not scored a single goal against opponents Chelsea

• Barcelona met yet another embarrassing end in the Champions League, this time departing in the Round of 16 after a 1st-leg walloping by Paris Saint-Germain

• Manchester City's road to the final eight was, as always, littered with rose petals and scented lotions

• Neither Messi nor Ronaldo will be playing in the Champions League again this season, as the latter's Juventus were stunned by Porto, the Portuguese side advancing on the away goals tiebreaker

Now, to this week's slate of games:

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

The rematch of the 2018 Final sees two teams nowhere near their best nor healthiest: both clubs will be missing their talismanic center backs, and while Real will be without Eden Hazard and Dani Carvajal, Liverpool still lacks their captain Jordan Henderson, as well as Joel Matip and Joe Gomez . That said, a recent uptick in domestic performance, combined with a favorable path in the semifinals, is enough to give both clubs some optimism heading into this tie. Even with Liverpool’s injury list, the remaining parts are still enough to match up favorably to Real’s healthy XI. But the key matchup will be red-hot Karim Benzema vs. the Reds’ 5th and 6th choice center backs; in this first tie, I’m going advantage Benzema.

The Pick: Real Madrid, 1-0

Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund’s good performance in the Champions League has masked a dismal campaign in the Bundesliga, as Der BVB have slipped to 6th place in Germany as of this last weekend. Manchester City, meanwhile, would love to replicate their domestic form, as they sit 14 points clear in the Premier League. As noted above, Erling Haaland has been nothing short of a goalscoring machine this tournament, and he and Dortmund’s attack would be a load for anyone to handle. But this isn’t just anyone; this is a back line that spent 4 weeks between January and February not conceding a single goal from open play.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1

Porto vs. Chelsea

Porto has a tall task ahead of them if their Cinderella run is going to continue, but the way the draw has set up for them makes it not impossible. The Portuguese mainstays have avoided the side of the bracket with Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and Paris Saint-Germain and after stunning Ronaldo and Juventus, now face the 5th-placed Premier League team. To be fair, since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea had hardly played like a team not in Champions League contention. But their 2-5 demolition at the hands of relegation-bound West Brom served notice that the Blues are not invincible. In the end, the current form of both sides is enough to make me think Porto can snag a tough point at home.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain

It’s wild to think that one of the two teams who played in last year’s Final, and indeed, likely one of the two best teams in Europe, won’t make it past this stage. It would seemingly be foolish to bet against the defending champions; nothing about Bayern Munich's play this tournament has given any indication that they are slowing up from their near-unprecedented dominance of the 2020 tournament. And yet, their defensive line has been extremely nervy at times this season, and that alone is cause for concern against a player as dynamic and lethal as Kylian Mbappé. Furthermore, their loss of Robert Lewandowski to injury weakens the likelihood that Bayern can just easily outscore anyone they might come across. I'm going odds-even in the first leg of this fascinating tie.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2