Best Picture Bracketology

We're in the thick of March, which means brackets are all anybody wants to talk about. While March Madness rages on, college basketball fans and normies alike are desperately checking results of games vs. their predicted winners, and across pop culture outlets, Twitter, even the political world, brackets of different kinds are omnipresent this time of year. None, most sane people would argue, more important than this one.

I thought about doing my standard Sweet 16 breakdown. 're-seeding' piece that I tend to do at this point in the tournament. But frankly, between the stupor and delirium of a particularly wild tournament (and one that has, delightfully, already seen the dismissal of all my least favorite teams), and my own personal dejection at my beloved Tar Heels having no postseason. I don't really feel up for more basketball content currently. I also realized I hadn't written any sort of recap of or post-mortem for the Grammys nor the Oscars, despite the copious amounts of coverage we had at The Couch leading up to both awards shows-- though my sister Catherine and I did do this debrief podcas t you should definitely check out if you haven't already :)

I'm not going to do a full-on recap for either show, but I will help fill that music/movie/awards show void in the most March-appropriate manner possible: brackets! On this, the last day of Sweet 16 weekend, we'll begin with a 16-album bracket of every Academy Award for Best Picture winner, starting with the newly-minted winners Everything Everywhere All At Once, going all the way back to the Coen Brothers' gritty No Country For Old Men in 2008. I'll walk you through my picks in each round, but feel free to download the bracket for yourselves and fill out your own picks...and let me hear about it when you do so. Let's get started!

The Bracket

First off, the seeding - it would obviously defeat the purpose of me filling out my bracket if I seeded the albums in order of what I liked the most, so I had to find some objective measure to set up the matchups. What I settled on was to seed by Metacritic score; Metacritic, the critic-aggregating website, is my go-to for both movie and music reviews, given its comprehensive methodology on assessing critical reaction.

The result? Here, in all its glory, is how the tournament between the last 16 Best Picture winners would be framed:

The Sweet 16

(1) Moonlight vs. (16) Green Book

The highest-rated Best Picture winner of all time (per Metacritic) vs. the lowest-rated of the last 16 years both were surprise victories that produced classic audience reactions...for very different reasons. Moonlight's triumph will always be remembered for the shocking "wrong envelope" snafu that briefly had everyone thinking La La Land had won Best Picture, but that's a shame. It was a wholly deserving winner, and its win would have sent shockwaves even without the awkward onstage chaos; it deserves to be remembered on its own merits. Green Book, meanwhile, elicited more the "lololol what??" surprised reaction that Crash infamously received in 2006. I'm on record as saying Green Book is both a better film than, and not quite as problematic as the masses made it out to be, and I stand by that, but by no means was it an "Oscar movie." And it's not even in the same storytelling/moviemaking galaxy as Moonlight is.

(8) The Artist vs. (9) The King's Speech

The 8-v-9 matchup pits two movies, back-to-back winners, against each other that are fairly different in style and substance, but both probably qualify as being the type of oft-derided 'Oscar bait' you may hear thrown around about a few films on an annual basis. Perhaps fittingly, I actually quite enjoyed both movies, likely much more than your non-cinephile friends and peers, but was not quite as enamored with them as the Academy was. The French and English-made films, respectively, are typical European films: very simple movies, done incredibly well. Reviews and accolades for the two are near-identical, as is my "solid A-minus movie!" assessment of each, but I have to pick a winner. So I'm going to go with the more audacious effort in the silent, black-and-white The Artist. It also helps that its win was much less controversial; not only is The King's Speech one of Harvey Weinstein's babies, it beat out the likes of Inception, The Social Network, and True Grit for top honors.

(5) Spotlight vs. (12) Argo

I hate that these two came up against each other this early; two Best Picture winners whose victories were wholly deserved, my personal favorite movies of 2015 and 2012, respectively. That being said, there's a clear winner here. Argo is better than most movies in this bracket, in my opinion, and deserves to win at least one, but it's not without its overplayed, cheesy moments nor its occasionally clunky manufactured action. The "action" in Spotlight comes exclusively from the note-perfect screenplay and acting performances. Its most impressive feat of all, arguably, is the way it refuses to castigate the Catholic faith as a whole while not shying away from the abominable assault that ran rampant in its churches; truly, it's hard to find too much wrong with the movie at all.

(4) The Hurt Locker vs. (13) Slumdog Millionaire

Woof. Talk about an intense tonal difference. Probably one of the more extreme ones you'll see in this bracket. Danny Boyle's Cinderella story about a boy from the slums of Mumbai making a run on India's "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" comes up against Kathryn Bigelow's stripped-back examination of a fictional war veteran's experience in Iraq, and his PTSD upon returning to America, in yet another matchup of back-to-back winners. Slumdog Millionaire is often referred to as a "feel-good movie," and I do think such a description does it a disservice, as it doesn't shy away from depicting the difficulties of slum life, nor downright torture, including of children. It may end on a cheery note, sure, and have a fairly predictable story arc for some characters, but there's no question it's the movie I would much more readily rewatch. That said, that's not exactly the criteria here. And if I'm being honest about which is the better movie, it has to be The Hurt Locker, which, like Spotlight above, doesn't really put a foot wrong in unraveling a devastating story.

(3) 12 Years A Slave vs. (14) Everything Everywhere All At Once

Alright, you know what? I take it back. THIS is the most intense tonal difference in any head-to-head matchup. A 2.5-hour, sweltering, brutal depiction of a freed man captured and sold back into slavery vs. an absurdist multiverse dramedy that features copious kung fu, googly eyes, and dildos as weapons. This may shock you to hear, but not a lot of overlap between the recently crowned Best Picture winner and the 2014 champion! All that being said, this is going to be my first 'upset' win of this bracket, and it's actually not particularly close. I felt this way a decade ago, and I've felt it even more with the passing years and upon a couple rewatches: the brutality of the subject matter and phenomenal acting performances by Chiwetel Ejiofor and Lupita Nyong'o mask some serious shortcomings in 12 Years A Slave's pacing, direction, and other acting. In a loaded year for cinema, it didn't even crack my Top 10. Meanwhile, the sheer absurdity of much of the story and whiplash-inducing pace of Everything Everywhere will throw you upon first viewing, and may even lose you if you're not committed. But underneath it all, there's an incredibly profound tale of an immigrant mother fighting through depression, nihilism, prejudice, and generational trauma, with the support of an incredible cast (both inside the film, and out).

(6) No Country For Old Men vs. (11) Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance)

This is an interesting matchup for me, because the 2008 and 2015 winners, while quite different from each other, were both films I would say I appreciated a lot more than actually liked. Both are movies that film nuts, especially men-- let's just be honest, guys! Just calling it like I see it! --lose their minds over, but in both cases, I left the movie thinking '...right. What was all that about, then?' That's not to say I didn't like them at all; there were elements of each that I found extremely engaging, and can also identify the touches of genius from each Best Director-winning director(s), Joel and Ethan Coen in the former and Alejandro González Iñárritu the latter. But neither story is one I felt particularly compelled to return to again. A winner must spring forth, though, and although it may be the more controversial pick, in the absence of a clear advantage for either, I'm going to go with the one that at least was riveting from start to finish. The absurd, drumline-scored, single-take Birdman may have confused the hell out of me at times, but I couldn't take my eyes off it.

(7) Nomadland vs. (10) The Shape Of Water

Ugh. I'm not gonna lie, I'm very peeved these two are facing off against each other, because otherwise, both would be very easy Ls to dish out. I just wasn't wild about either movie in the least, no matter how much critics raved about "the poetic character study" of the former, or "del Toro's masterful 'fantasy film noir'" in the latter. I was quite frustrated by each one's win at the Oscars (justice forThe Sound of Metal and Get Out !!!) That said, I do think an objective winner is pretty clear here: while The Shape Of Water might have been slightly more fun to watch, I just didn't think it was a very good movie. Nomadland bore me to tears, but I can at least appreciate and respect that it is a well-made film: the direction, cinematography, and acting all deserved the awards they won. Still, I wish one of these movies could have been swapped for another matchup...

(2) Parasite vs. (15) CODA

...such as this one!! I hate that I have to knock either of these out in round 1. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised that last-year's winner CODA is the second-lowest reviewed winner of the last 16 years; it was a formulaic movie, whose happy story arcs might provoke the loudest eye-roll imaginable from the uber-cynical among us. But, especially in an incredibly weak year for movies, it was among my favorites, and coming out the year after one of the hardest years in my (and many Americans') lifetime, it felt good to just kick back and relax to a simple, sweet story with some terrific acting performances. Still, even I must admit that picking it to win this particular matchup would be like arguing Harry's House is a better album than To Pimp A Butterfly. Both have their place, but Parasite, which offers a direct counter to any of the criticisms one could lob at CODA, is a whole different level of artistry completely.

So, after the first round of the competition, here's what my bracket looks like:

The Elite 8

(1) Moonlight vs. (8) The Artist

Keeping with the theme of this bracket, this is a matchup of two wildly different movies (perhaps we should be giving the Academy more credit for their diversity in picking winning films than we do?), but I actually think they share a common thread of 'simple movie, relatively low budget, but just really good across the board.' I was surprised by how much I not only liked The Artist, but how easy it was to enjoy and remain engaged during the silent movie. I have nothing but good things to say about Michael Hazanavicius' film. That said, again, Moonlight is a different ballgame. It wasn't just that it was a groundbreaking winner in its all-Black cast and queer identity storyline; it's also about how much thought and delicate care was put into the characters, particularly the main character, in this heartwrenching, three-act slow burn.

(4) The Hurt Locker vs. (5) Spotlight

Though the two deal with very different subject matters, I nevertheless drew a line from one to the other above by saying neither "really put[s] a foot wrong in unraveling a devastating story." And it's true, it's tough that either one of these has to go home at this stage, as it's difficult to find much fault with either film. But there's a reason I have readily rewatched Spotlight (and would happily do so again tonight) multiple times, and not The Hurt Locker, despite the content of the former being every bit as emotional and visceral. The Hurt Locker, brilliantly-made as it is, can be a punishing watch, while Spotlight packs an emotional punch but also packages it within a compelling look at the incredibly important work of the investigating news reporters. It carries the banner for 'investigative journalism movies,' winning the award that the likes of All The President's Men, The Insider, and Good Night and Good Luck couldn't. And having that notch in its belt for one of my favorite sub-genres of film makes it tough to beat.

(11) Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance) vs. (14) Everything Everywhere All At Once

Unlike in our Album of the Year bracket the other day, we get an all-double-digit seed showdown in the Elite 8 here! This type of "Cinderella vs. Cinderella" second-round matchup is a better representation of what we often see in the real-life March Madness, most certainly this year in what has been perhaps the wildest college basketball postseason ever. That said, not all Cinderellas are created equal. One of these movies won my first-round matchup because it was the contender I felt slightly less "meh" about. One of them won because I loved it, so much more so than its opponent. Guess which one is going to take this matchup? That's right, much like its out-of-nowhere record-breaking run in this very calendar year, Everything Everywhere All At Once marches on in its glass slippers, to the Final Four!

(2) Parasite vs. (7) Nomadland

Lol. Read my comments about each movie in their first-round matchup and take a fat stab at which one wins here. I won't waste any more of your time.

Unlike my Album of the Year bracket, I've managed to create a Final Four that much more resembles basketball's common Final Four breakdown (two top seeds, another high seed, one biiiig underdog):

The Final Four

(1) Moonlight vs. (5) Spotlight

This is a brutal matchup for me. Yet again, it throws together winners in back-to-back years, and this time, involves two movies that rank not only among my favorite of the last decade, but my favorites ever. At the time of its victory, Spotlight was actually my favorite Best Picture winner since I had started to pay closer attention to the Oscars and the nominated movies. However, that doesn't mean much when it chronologically preceded all of my other semifinalists. It also was the first big upset of the "expanded Best Picture field" era; while it surely was a strong contender, it was an unexpected, profound victory for the understated movie amongst more favored nominees The Revenant and The Big Short. But that feat, too, has been usurped several times over, with even bigger shocks coming in the following years, including with two other semifinalists here. None of this has anything to do with how good a movie Spotlight is, I just bring it up to say, in another year, at another point in my life, it likely would be the favorite to win my bracket, regardless of seed. But alas, that time has passed; it won't be dethroning top seed Moonlight. Barry Jenkins' critical smash and surprise Oscar winner is, quite simply, a masterpiece. It's a brilliant, original piece of cinema that stood head and neck above contenders in its own loaded year, but truthfully most films this decade. That Spotlight won't win this matchup doesn't reflect poorly on itself in all, rather that the movie it came up against was a masterclass in character development, told a necessary and under-represented story of identity, race and masculinity, and featured simply note-perfect acting across the board.

(2) Parasite vs. (14) Everything Everywhere All At Once

Parasite and Everything Everywhere All At Once are wildly different from each other, but occupy a similar place in cinema lore. For starters, the obvious fact about each is that neither "looks" the way most Best Picture winners do: Parasite was the first foreign-language film to ever win the award, and is Korean all the way through, from producer, to director, to the entire cast. Everything Everywhere has an almost-entirely Asian and/or Asian-American cast itself, as well as two directors, one of whom is himself Asian-American. But also, both films completely became cultural zeitgeists, the most-buzzy, most-dissected films of the year by far. When I heard from family and friends alike for the better part of 2022 that I "had to see Everything Everywhere All At Once" and it would be "unlike anything I'd ever seen before," my mind flashed back to the latter parts of 2019, when I was hearing identical things about Parasite. In both cases, the people were right, and the hype warranted. And in both cases, both movies unexpectedly rode a wave of similar sentiment amongst the Academy to deliver a Best Picture win that, for once (er-- for twice), set the Twittersphere ablaze with excitement rather than scorn. However, again, the movies themselves are quite different from each other, and thus, it's not as hard for me to choose a winner as you might expect, based on my entire preamble. I really liked Everything Everywhere upon first viewing, and loved it even more upon re-watching, but there's no question its absurdity makes it hard to stay fully tuned in, and its silliness runs the risk of muting its earnest, profound message at times. Parasite, meanwhile, is wild and often funny, too, but is more of an easily-consumed, slightly more restrained, eerie thriller that lays bare its message on South Korean society and classicism through its character development, its set design, and even its cinematography. It's an exhilarating story and a masterful piece of cinema all in one. I could watch it over and over and never get tired of it.

Despite the upsets and moving parts in all preceding rounds, I've managed to render a Championship matchup that mirrors film critics' top two seeds:

The Championship

(1) Moonlight vs. (2) Parasite

Where my Album of the Year bracket gurgled up a Final Four-- maybe even closer to an Elite Eight --in which I could have foreseen any of the contenders winning, and could hear and respect arguments for each winning, this bracket was only ever going to yield this exact Championship matchup. Much as I loved the two other semifinalists, and wished for better outcomes for others like Argo and CODA, these are the movies from my cinephile era (circa 2011-present). Two groundbreaking Best Picture winners, two deeply original movies, two moviegoing experiences that left me speechless (for very different reasons), two of the most celebrated films of the 21st century, two one-word titles that end on a perfect rhyme. It's so hard to pick. Fortunately for all of us, the two get to coexist outside in the real world. But in this bracket, there can only be one. And my champion is...

PARASITE

I don't have anything bad to say about Moonlight. That's not a stock line, I genuinely have no criticism of it. It got 5 stars and my #1 ranking of 2016 (which again, was a very good year in cinema) for a reason. So I will instead dedicate this closing stanza exclusively to singing the praises of Parasite. Other than perhaps this very year, the 2020 Oscars featured the best slate of Best Picture nominees in recent memory; I truly liked all nominated films, and there were at least a few I would consider among the best of the last decade, not just that year. With that in mind, that Parasite's win sent shockwaves through the Dolby Theatre crowd and got me jumping out of bed screaming "Yes!!!" speaks to just how good this movie is, and just how significant of a cultural moment its victory was. The first foreign-language film to ever win Best Picture came from a country not exactly known for its burgeoning film industry, and yet, South Korea could not be more deserving of the honor. Bong Joon-ho's film is nothing short of a masterpiece, an incredibly layered story of class strife, with themes of greed, oppression, ambition and family ties, all with equal doses of horror, humor, suspense and emotion. I have seen it at least 5 times, and am aiming for many more. I doubt I will ever tire of it.

One more look at my completed "Best Picture bracket," in all its glory:

What do you think? Any clear misses? Did I nail it? Am I a movie plebeian? Let me know how your bracket would have played out, and how many tomatoes you're throwing at me from behind your screen!