2021 Couch Power 10, Week 8
If ever there was going to be a week where the wild carousel ride that this college football season is was going to stop, or just take a BREAK for a second, it was going to be this one. There were zero matchups between ranked teams. None. Hardly any games worth even putting on TV, let alone following closely. The #1 team in the country had a bye. This was going to be the week where everyone just…chilled.
But, because this is a season unlike any other, that was not the case. At halftime across the Noon slate of games, here was the state of affairs: #2 Cincinnati led 1-5 Navy by 3 points. #6 Michigan and #7 Penn State led 3-win teams Northwestern and Illinois by the same scores, 10-7. And #3 Oklahoma trailed 1-5 Kansas, 10-0. Now, it’s true that in three of those games, the favored team ended up winning, but except in the case of Michigan, all were in play until the final whistle. And if Penn State and Illinois playing 9 overtimes, culminating in a shock upset win for the Illini, all while somehow combining for less than 40 points doesn’t thrill you, well, you’re watching the wrong sport, brother. That might have been the absolute peak of absurdity, but between Coastal Carolina and Oklahoma State suffering their first losses to unravels teams, Oregon and UCLA playing a West Coast thriller, and Pittsburgh all but officially ending Clemson’s playoff streak, there were still plenty of juicy chaos nibbles for the neutral fan last week, and promises of more going forward.
Just a refresher: our ranking is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date:
1. Georgia
Georgia got a well-earned week of rest to take a break from bludgeoning all of their opponents into submission. Next up? The World's largest cocktail party against Florida.
2. Cincinnati
A close, unconvincing win over a bad Navy team wouldn't normally result in a team moving up a spot in the rankings. That said, Cincy also isn't just here by default. At this point, I genuinely think they're the 2nd best team in the country. The nation is full of imperfect teams, and considering the Bearcats are not only unbeaten, but before this weekend were really hardly even tested, they've got as much a playoff case as anyone not named Georgia.
3. Michigan
Michigan entered the bye week still unbeaten, but somewhat stumbling, with two less-than-convincing wins over Rutgers and Nebraska leading up to their week off, so I was curious to see how they would look coming back to action. The answer was, after a bit of a rough first half, well! They kept Northwestern around closer than Jim Harbaugh would have liked, but did what good teams do and asserted their dominance in the 2nd half, setting up a showdown of unbeaten rivals against Michigan State this coming weekend.
4. Michigan State
Speaking of Michigan State, the Spartans had a bye week to prepare for said unbeaten showdown. Their week off (coupled with their narrow win over Indiana last time out) allowed their in-state rivals to get the spotlight last weekend, but with College Gameday coming to town, you know MSU will relish the opportunity to get attention back.
5. Alabama
I’ll admit, this ranking is recency bias more than anything else. That’s not to say I don’t genuinely think they’re a Top 5 team; they look the part, fresh off a blowout win over a not-terrible Tennessee team. I just mean I don’t actually know that their resume is all too impressive. Their win over Ole Miss is aging nicely thus far, but their big non-conference win over Miami isn’t, and their down-to-the-wire win over Florida definitely isn’t. But what have we learned in the playoff era? If Bama is within striking distance of the playoff near the end of the season, they will make it, and if they make it, they’ll usually win it. So it’s safe to default to them as the best of the one-loss teams.
6. Ohio State
Speaking of perennial playoff contenders that were written off too soon… Ohio State returns to the Couch Power 10 for the first time since Week 1! The Buckeyes still haven’t had a chance to prove themselves against a top-tier opponent since their home loss to Oregon, hence why they’re not ranked higher than this. But, while everyone has been taking notice of the other Big Ten contenders from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa, Ohio State has quietly started to look like the team everyone expected them to be preseason, winning their last 3 conference games by an average margin of 45 points. Penn State (with Sean Clifford healthy again) comes calling this weekend, and then the Buckeyes close with the two Michigan teams. Between those— and a potential Big Ten Championship —they’ll have ample opportunity to prove themselves again.
7. Oklahoma
Just when I was finally starting to believe in Oklahoma, they go and put up that horrible performance in Lawrence. I suppose I should give them credit for coming back to win and remaining unbeaten, which is now something no other Big 12 team can say, and only four other Power 5 teams can say. But look, if this was the first or even second lackluster performance from the Sooners, we could maybe— maybe —excuse needing a 4th quarter rally to beat Kansas. When it’s an every-game thing? Well, you start to see why people may not believe in you.
8. Wake Forest
The good news? Wake Forest stayed unbeaten and in the process, put up 70 (!!!) points on a good Army team. The bad? They gave up 56 points to a service academy that runs the triple option. Who had the better weekend between Wake believers and Wake skeptics? I may be a bit biased because I genuinely want good things to happen to the Demon Deacons, but I actually came away from this weekend more impressed with them than before. Army is a well-coached team that will probably end up with 8 or 9 wins. To pretty much score at will against them is no small feat.
9. SMU
With Coastal Carolina’s loss last week, the “Group of Five” attention now seems to be solely on Cincinnati, and deservedly so. But Cincy and the public at large would be wise to not look past their American Conference foes SMU. SMU lacks the signature win(s) the Bearcats have, but the Mustangs are sneakily looking just as impressive and could pose a real threat to ruin Cincinnati’s playoff dreams.
10. UTSA
From one Texas mid-major unbeaten to the other. How about the job Jeff Traylor is doing at UTSA? In his 2nd season in San Antonio, he’s turned the Roadrunners from FBS cellar-dwellers to, presently, an unbeaten side that’s the toast of their conference. With a SOS that’s ranked right around the same as SMU’s, it’s about time the “other Texas team” starts getting some New Years Six buzz.
Just missed: San Diego State, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Oregon, program-changer Zach Rice
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