Premier League Predictions, Week 26
© Micah Veldkamp, 2019
Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! There was no Champions League action this week, but lots of FA Cup matches and the League Cup final were played in the last 5 days, so after this weekend, you will have had your fill of English football!
Let's cut right to the chase: it was a weird week last week. I only got 2 of my 5 predictions correct, but both I got right, I really got right. Not only did I correctly predict the draws between Bournemouth and Chelsea, and Everton and Manchester United, I got the scorelines and analysis dead-on, too. Well done, that. Then again, I mistakenly thought favored Leicester City would beat 20th-place Norwich City, and errantly expected Tottenham Hotspur to not lose to Wolverhampton. Oh, and how could I forget? I expected undefeated, greatest-team-of-all-time Liverpool to beat 19th-placed Watford instead of losing to them. What an idiot I am. Yes, given my gems among the absolute absurdity of the week, I'm allowing myself a score of 3/5. That brings me to a round 60/95 on the year.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time trying to make sense of affairs. Here are your 5 for Week 26!
Liverpool vs. Bournemouth
Well. THAT was not supposed to happen. If any common fool tells you they expected Watford to beat Liverpool-- let alone wallop them 3-0 --last weekend, they are lying through their teeth. Liverpool's capitulation was the most stunning result, not just of the season, but in recent Premier League history. In some ways, though, it had been a long time coming; Liverpool's form had dipped considerably in recent weeks, as the Reds needed multiple late escapes to salvage Premier League victories, and lost in an ugly match against Atlético Madrid in the Champions League. Now with a midweek loss to Chelsea, Liverpool are suddenly out of the FA Cup and League Cup, and dangerously close to being out of the Champions League. They're also without their captain and now their starting goalie due to injury. Now, the Reds still have a 22-point lead atop the table, so let's not start writing their obituaries yet. However, they absolutely need a convincing 3 points tomorrow to get some good mojo back. Bournemouth usually offers little opposition to Liverpool, but this is a team on a mission to avoid the relegation zone, and will likely sense blood in the water. That said, if Liverpool can't win this one, at Anfield, against a team that's going to actually attack and not sit back in the 6-3-1 formation that Atlético and Watford employed...I may not pick them to win the rest of the season.
The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1
Chelsea vs. Everton
The epic battle for the Top 4/5 is raging on as strong as ever, thanks to Leicester and Chelsea's refusal to solidify their spots. The Blues were able to secure a draw vs. Bournemouth at least, thanks to Marco Alonso's late equalizer. But you get the sense that they will need to string a couple wins together before Frank Lampard can start to feel better about his side's chances of appearing in the Champions League next year. The quest starts this weekend against Everton, a team reborn under Carlo Ancelotti, who may be out for blood against his former side. I really want to pick another draw, but I think in front of a home crowd, eager for a morale-boosting win, Chelsea pull out a close one.
The Pick: Chelsea, 2-1
Manchester United vs. Manchester City
It's not quite the race-defining match this fixture has been in recent seasons, but the Manchester Derby should a. be wildly entertaining, and b. have real consequences on the title race AND the Top 4 race. As of now, Manchester City are banned from the Champions League next season, and have a slim-to-none chance at catching Liverpool in the Premier League. But a win here not only avenges their earlier upset loss to their rival, but keeps title race door slightly ajar, and if there's any side that can overcome a late-season 22-point deficit, it'd be a team as talented and deep as City's. Conversely, as confounding as they can be, we've seen how Manchester United play in big matches this year, notching road wins over City, Chelsea, Leicester and Tottenham, as well as being the only team to take points off Liverpool before last weekend. Furthermore, they are holding on to a Champions eligible spot by the tiniest of margins, and know that a loss could throw them behind Wolves, Tottenham, and even Sheffield United in that battle. I could genuinely see this going either way, so I'll play it straight down the middle.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Leicester City vs. Aston Villa
As stated above, the epic battle for the Top 4/5 is raging on as strong as ever, thanks to Leicester and Chelsea's refusal to solidify their spots. Leicester City spent the first half of the season playing some of the most surprising, electrifying, swashbuckling football, but something has been seriously wrong for them in 2020. They now have won just 1 of their last 7 league matches, the most recent being their road loss to likely-relegated Norwich. It would seem that home vs. 19th-placed Aston Villa would be a good fixture for the Foxes to circle as key to getting their 3rd place standing back on surer footing. But there seems to be something in the water in recent weeks, both as it pertains to Leicester and to teams in the relegation zone.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
Manchester City spent last weekend winning the League Cup for the 3rd straight year, so their Premier League fixture against Arsenal has been reschedule for this coming Wednesday. It won't be at the forefront of many football fans' minds, as the match will be played at the same time as a couple massive Champions League showdowns, but this could be a fascinating one. There's no reason to pick against the Citizens in this one. They have the talent advantage, they're on their home stadium, they have everything to play for since the League Cup is over and won, and Champions League qualification will likely be taken from them.... and yet? I am a believer in the Arteta turnaround: Arsenal haven't lost a Premier League match in 2020, and they are playing . Furthermore, their manager was hired away from City's staff; I have to imagine that familiarity helps them against Wednesday's opponents. I'm going with a surprise draw projection here.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2