Premier League Predictions, Week 23

Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! It's been a while since you heard from me, as I, like the League itself was taking a Winter Break. To be fair, games were played last week, as the teams' break was staggered. But while I briefly considered publishing a preview piece last week, I ultimately realized that every single fixture relevant to the title and Top 4 race was being played this week.

I have to say, the break couldn't have come at a worse time for me, because I was just getting rolling on my predictions. If you can remember this far back, I got 4 of the 5 results correct, only erroneously projecting a Manchester City win, when in fact Tottenham upset them 2-0. However, in addition to the correct results, I also predicted 100% accurate scorelines for Leicester-Chelsea and for Crystal Palace-Sheffield United. This was easily my most impressive outing of the season, so while I wasn't perfect, I'll give myself a 4.5/5 on the week. This brings me to 51/80. Not pretty, but it's getting better.

Now, the matches are less than 24 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time self-congratulating. Here are your 5 for Week 23!

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Leicester City

Wolves and Leicester get the rare Friday kickoff treatment! Here's hoping it leads to more eyeballs in Britain at least, because these two clubs deserve it for consistently punching above their weight. In the wake of their 2-2 draw two weeks ago, Leicester are still comfortably in 3rd place in the league, and have 5 of their 6 fixtures against the rest of the Top 4 behind them (only a visit from Manchester City remains, next weekend). Wolves, meanwhile, despite winning only 1 of their last 5 and slipping to a tie for 9th place, are still actually just 6 points out of the Champions League. Both sides entered the break sputtering a bit after their flying form of November-December, and both could really use a win to regain their mojo. Wolves have Europa League action in several days that might take their eye off the ball a bit, but they also have a home crowd, and a more intense battle in the race for Top 4 placement.

The Pick: Wolves, 3-2

Norwich City vs. Liverpool

On Saturday morning, the first-placed team and last-placed team in the Premier League will play each other. But hear me out: even though Liverpool has a 55-point lead over their Saturday opponents (I haven't checked, but that has to be the largest-ever margin at this point in the season), I actually think this could be a ballgame. Norwich not only has a history of forcing Liverpool into wild affairs at Carrow Road, they've wreaked havoc at home already this year, upsetting Manchester City and taking points off of Arsenal, Leicester City, and Tottenham. I'm done with my days of picking Liverpool to do anything but win, because such predictions end up making me look foolish. But this has less of a feel of a Red romp in the park than it does one of their thrilling 2-1 victories they've trademarked this season.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Aston Villa is just outside the relegation zone. Tottenham Hotspur is just outside the Top 4. This match is mostly about seeing which team needs the W more desperately. You may think Villa, especially in front of a home crowd, but Spurs, fresh off a huge win over Manchester City, will likely be looking to keep the good mojo going and put real pressure on Chelsea for the last Champions League spot. I think the latter wins the day.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-0

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

These two played the season opener, and it ended in a 4-0 Man United romp that was a very unflattering scoreline for Chelsea. Since that matchup, the two clubs have both gone on to have very topsy-turvy seasons, but unlike United, Chelsea had a full two months of sustained quality play, and that is why they are slightly out of their opponent's reach in the Top 4. The storied clubs both enter this matchup having won only 1 of their last 5. United is just 6 points behind Chelsea, though, and a win here would go a long way in making a late push for Champions League qualification. Given how soundly they were beaten the first time, I can't see Chelsea losing again to Man U, particularly at home. However, given United's remarkable form against the other Big 6 clubs + Leicester this season, projecting a loss to an unreliable Chelsea side is also difficult. I'll split the difference and say the Blues do just enough to keep the Red Devils at arm's length.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Manchester City vs. West Ham

This one was actually supposed to be played last weekend, and I felt mildly bad for not entering a prediction for it, but then it got postponed to Wednesday due to awful weather, so hey, no harm no foul! Except for those fans who traveled 3000 miles only for the match to get postponed. Yikes. Anyways, last time out, Manchester City lost their 6th match of the season, which is already as many as they lost in the previous two seasons combined. There's little question their two-year reign of the Premier League will come to an end; thanks to their loss to Tottenham, Liverpool could theoretically clinch the title in less than a month's time. It begs the question, what do City play for at this point? They're not going to win the League, but they're 12 points clear of 5th place, so they're not in any real danger of not making the Champions League-- a near-unthinkable outcome. It will be interesting to monitor the pride and effort they put forth the rest of the season, and could be especially pertinent in a midweek match against an uninspiring West Ham side desperate for a win that would lift them briefly out of the relegation zone. That said, West Ham is so roundly bad that I just can't predict anything other than a Man City victory in this matchup.

The Pick: Manchester City, 1-0

Premier League Predictions, Week 23

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