Premier League Predictions, Week 19

Hello all! Remember me? I used to write about the Premier League?

Yes, I know it's been a while since you've seen this space. The combination of holiday festivities and fixture pileup during Crazy December (TM) meant that a number of Premier League matches were played since my last prediction piece. But! I am rested and ready to get back to the grind, as I'm sure all the clubs who have had to sprinkle in FA Cup and League Cup ties are as well.

You may not recall, but my last time out, I had a woeful outing. I missed on all but 1 of the results, placing far too much confidence in Tottenham, Everton, Leicester and Manchester City. The good news is the only match I did get right, I got bang-on, nailing the Man City-Leicester scoreline. I'll give myself a 1.5/5 for the week, bringing my season total to 38.5/60. Yikes.

Now, the matches have begun, so let's not waste any more time groveling in our failures. Here are your 5 for Week 19!

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal

The Mikel Arteta era at Arsenal got underway in shaky fashion, as the Gunners couldn't defeat Bournemouth and squandered two late goals to drop 3 points to London rivals Chelsea. However, there has been a notable uptick in the quality of play, and in the last 10 days, that has translated to good results. They offed Manchester United-- something that no other "Big Six" club has done in the Premier League season, including Liverpool --in an impressive 2-0 win, then followed that up with an FA Cup win over a tough Leeds side 5 days later. To keep their dreams of a Top 4 finish, they'll need to extend that run of good form, which would require them to win a crucial 3 points on the road at a tough Crystal Palace team this weekend. I think Arteta will prove to be a good hire for Arsenal, but a second consecutive win against a side higher on the table than them might be asking too much, too soon. I think they split the points..

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Chelsea vs. Burnley

After winning 9 matches out of 10 and launching themselves into 2nd place in the league, Chelsea lost to Manchester City in late November and since have returned to extremely topsy-turvy form. They enter 2020 with no shortage of confidence in their quality, having posted road wins against both North London clubs Arsenal and Tottenham in the last couple weeks. However, they also enter in a distant 4th place, with no real assured consistency, having also dropped points to Southampton and Brighton in that same time period. Burnley, despite starting the year well and generally displaying much more positive football, find themselves in the bottom half of the league; in fact, just 4 points from the relegation zone. Given the Clarets' propensity for being a tough out, and Chelsea's recent propensity for dropping points to clubs they should always beat, this has 'trap game' written all over it. But I think the fact that Chelsea had a disappointing outing their last time out, will be at home, and know they need to keep United and Tottenham at bay will help them pull this one out.

The Pick: Chelsea, 3-1

Leicester City vs. Southampton

At the midway point of what's been a tremendous season for Leicester, the Foxes had a pretty brutal stretch wherein they played at Manchester City and hosted Liverpool, in a matter of 5 days. Perhaps surprisingly, not given the quality of their opponents but given how well they had been this season, they were soundly dominated in both fixtures, losing to the two heavyweights by an aggregate score of 1-7. The good news is, they bounced back with comfortable victories over West Ham and Newcastle, and those results, coupled with another surprising Manchester City loss, were enough to keep them in 2nd place for now. However, Southampton might require a bit more focus than the Foxes' last couple opponents: after sitting in the relegation zone less than a month ago, the Saints have won 3 and drawn 1 out of their last four matches, and two of the victories came against Chelsea and Tottenham. They're a team reinvented currently, spurred by the great form of Danny Ings, and it's been good enough to lift them up to 12th place. Now, this match is being played in Leicester and the last time these two met, the score was a record-setting 9-0 win for Leicester. So I'd be a fool for picking anything other than a Leicester City victory, but I trust it will not be a 9-goal margin this time.

The Pick: Leicester, 3-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool

The match of the weekend pits familiar foes Jurgen Klopp and Jose Mourinho on opposite touchlines. Just 13 months ago, Mourinho was at the helm of Liverpool's archrivals Manchester United; when he was sacked from United, it was following their 3-1 loss at Liverpool, a loss that seemed to indicate the changing of the guard in the Premier League. Now at Tottenham, Mourinho returns to a largely unfamiliar world, one where Klopp and Liverpool are THE side in the Premier League, the league leaders by a country mile, the ones who can't seem to stop winning. Often Liverpool's worst nightmare as the Man U manager, can Mourinho torment Klopp again by being the first team to defeat Liverpool this Premier League season? On the one hand, it's not too much of a stretch to think so. Tottenham nearly got the better of Liverpool at Anfield earlier this season, and that was in the midst of an awful stretch of form under prior manage Mauricio Pochettino. They have a home crowd this time (in a stadium in which Liverpool has never played), and a manger that knows how to beat the Reds. On the other hand, the Spurs are missing star Harry Kane (who was crucial in the competitive first match), as well as central midfielders Tanguy Ndombélé and Moussa Sissoko, and although Liverpool has a decent injury list themselves, they've proven to be just fine without those players in a way Tottenham sans Kane have not. That said, it's almost become a tradition of late for me to erroneously predict Liverpool dropping points, so I probably shouldn't, but I just don't see the Reds emerging from their next 3 matches with 9 points, and this fixture seems the best candidate for things to go slightly awry.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City

The last match of the weekend features a possible preview of the League Cup final next month. This week, Manchester City booked their spot in the Cup final by shellacking rivals Manchester United, while Aston Villa played to a 1-1 draw at Leicester, forcing a replay next week, to be held at Villa Park. But this match and its ramifications on the Premier League standings will be extremely pertinent to both sides. Aston Villa, despite many of the good things they've done in their first year back in the Premier League, are just one point above the relegation zone, while Manchester City are 14 points behind Liverpool (and with one more match played), desperate to keep their slim title hopes alive. Jack Grealish is always the man to watch for Aston Villa, and City's shorthanded and oft-leaky defense may struggle to contain him. But there's seemed to be a renewed focus in the Manchester side ever since their 2nd stunning loss to Wolves a couple weeks ago, and I expect them to be too much for a sprightly Villa side this time.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-0

Premier League Predictions, Week 19

RECENT POSTS