Champions League Predictions: Semifinals, Leg 2
Ready to get back into the swing of Champions League play? I know it seems like just last week that Lionel Messi was putting one Barcelona-laden foot into the Final with an otherworldly free kick...oh right, that was last week. More on that in a minute.
But yes, 48 hours from now, we will officially know the two sides competing for Champions League glory on June 1. And you know what that means: in less than 24 hours, we get to experience some more terrific, pulsating football, and more importantly, the greatest anthem in the world.
The first leg of the semifinal fixtures did not exactly go as planned. Though I did accurately predict 50% of all Champions League matches played last week, I did not foresee either semifinal match progressing in the dominant fashion each one did. Barcelona probably deserved a 1-goal victory at best, but made off with a 3-0 victory. Ajax probably deserved a 3-goal victory at worst, but only escaped with a 1-0 victory. Only in fútbol!
It's time to turn to this week's slate, the antepenultimate and penultimate matches of the 2018-19 Champions League:
Liverpool vs. Barcelona
I remember being disappointed, when the legs of the semifinals were announced, that the 2nd leg of this fixture would be played on the Tuesday rather than the last Wednesday. 'After all,' I thought, 'that's the primetime matchup; shouldn't we save the more dramatic semifinal for last?' Such a complaint now looks foolish as there is considerably less drama surrounding the return leg to Liverpool as there will be in Amsterdam.
In my defense, I don't think most anybody expected the 3-0 scoreline that transpired last week in Camp Nou. It's a gut-punching aggregate mountain to climb, and now Liverpool will have to do it without their two most important attacking players. So yes, by any traditional logic, this tie is probably finished. Liverpool fans will cling to memorable comebacks in their 2005 and 2007 Champions League runs, as well as the 2016 Europa League, to support their belief that this is not over until the final whistle blows. In reality, they can look to a hopeful source much more recent than that: last week! Liverpool spent a good part, arguably the majority of the first leg being the better side, plain and simple. They looked more fluid and created more chances on goal. So no, it's not out of the question that Liverpool raise some eyebrows with this match. Firmino and Salah are massive losses, but when you factor in that the former hardly played in Leg 1, and the latter was culpable for a couple of the more egregious scuffed chances, perhaps it's not impossible for Liverpool to generate goals without them.
Impossible, no, but significantly harder. And while I think Virgil Van Dijk and the back line will stand tall, eager to prove they can in fact contain the vaunted Catalan front 3, I expect Barcelona will be perfectly content to rest on their haunches and keep shorthanded Liverpool out of the net as well.
The Pick: Draw, 0-0 [Barcelona win on aggregate, 3-0]
Ajax vs. Tottenham Hotspur
If Liverpool deserved better from their first semifinal scoreline, so too did AFC Ajax. The difference between the two is that the young Dutch side now get to head home for the second leg with a lead in the tie.
Saying a 1-0 road win was a disappointing result is not meant to speak ill of Tottenham Hotspur, who have had an equally incredible Champions League run, and have fought hard despite some crippling injuries to star players. Rather, it's meant to convey just how good Ajax were, once again. The young dazzlers have made fools of some of Europe's most elite all tournament, so shame on me for believing they would not be able to replicate their success against the 3rd/4th best team in England, especially when that team is lacking Harry Kane, Serge Aurier, and Erik Lamela thanks to injury.
There are a couple spots of concern for Ajax, though. Once again, they really should have won by a larger margin. Having a lead AND an away goal is huge, but were they returning home with a 2 or 3-goal margin, this tie would be signed, sealed, and delivered. Instead, a 2-1 Tottenham win (not at all an irrational possibility) sends the Londoners through to the Final. Secondly, inexplicably, Ajax have been much poorer at home than away in these knockout stages. In the Round of 16, they lost 1-2 in Amsterdam to Real Madrid, before routing the 3-time defending champions in Madrid on the return leg. In the last stage, they drew at home with Juventus, before notching a 2-1 victory in Turin. So if the trend is to continue, perhaps the Eredivise side didn't buy themselves enough room for their inevitable home stadium letdown.
In actuality, I would not be surprised at all if Leg 2 does not go quite as clinically for Ajax. I still have a sneaking suspicion Tottenham are going to make things a little difficult for de Godenzoden. I not only expect, but, for the average football fan's sake, a more balanced, energetic, open match between the two. I do think Spurs knock in an away goal or two, but ultimately Ajax will come out on top in the tie. They have to; surely those remarkable road wins in Madrid, Turin, and London won't all be for naught.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2 [Ajax win on aggregate, 3-2]