Why Black Panther Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only a few films have won any of the top prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Alfonso Cuarón's Roma] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, many have called this one of the most wide-open Best Picture races in recent memory. Not only is no contender is a traditional winner, none is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 2016, and Moonlight's stunner in 2017 dared us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominated films reason to believe they might win the top honors on Sunday night.
Let me start off by saying I LOOOOVE this movie and it was even in my top ten of 2018. Being a big Marvel fan, I would be over the moon if this won the big prize. But I’ve had to manage my expectations all year long because, as anybody who follows this stuff knows, comic book movies aren’t taken seriously by the Academy, or most big award shows. The Dark Knight being snubbed for Best Picture is largely believed to be the reason the Academy even decided to expand the category from five to ten so that more “mainstream,” “fan friendly” films could be in consideration. While some superhero films have come fairly close (Logan got a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination last year, and believe it or not, Deadpool was even considered a possible spoiler a few years back) none of these film have been able to crack the code…UNTIL NOW!
On paper, Black Panther was objectively considered the best film of 2018. Between the 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, crossing $700M domestically (beating out Titanic!) and the cultural impact that it has had around the world, there’s no denying this film made a gigantic dent in the industry. Some films are popular, some films are important, and rarely do they cross into both camps such as Black Panther. And if there’s two things the Academy loves more than anything else it’s 1. Looking for ways to be more “hip with the times,” and 2. Feeling important and culturally sensitive. I think this is too delicious of an opportunity for them to pass up having a film that’s popular AND important all in one.
Another notable factor in this is the new(ish) preferential ballot system. With this in place, it really doesn’t matter how many #1 votes you get, but also how many #2 and #3 you get as well. Compared to most of the other nominees in this category, nobody really hates Black Panther. Films that have gotten heat over the past few months like Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody certainly have their fans, but I’d wager they have an equal amount of haters who will rank the films lower. Black Panther could very well get by on a sentiment of “well, it wasn’t my #1, per se, but I liked it better than these pieces of garbage.” Recently, it’s been less about what the best film is, and more about what the least hated one is. Black Panther seems to be one of the only ones in the running that hasn’t gone through any lick of controversy.
While the SAG ensemble award hasn’t really made a big difference in the last two races (both Moonlight and The Shape of Water didn’t get this award, but went on to win the Oscar), it’s still too big a factor to ignore. The actors branch is the largest branch of the Academy, and if they felt good enough about awarding it that big award, maybe those same folks will vote for it here?
Black Panther also has a lot of factors going against it, to be sure. But if you think about it, so does every other nominee. Over the years it’s mainly been about the film with the least factors going against it. Even Roma, the presumed frontrunner, has a lot to overcome. But I’m confident that the love is real with this film. Real enough to push past the dark clouds hanging over these other movies.