Why A Star Is Born Will Win Best Picture
'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only a few films have won any of the top prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Alfonso Cuarón's Roma] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, many have called this one of the most wide-open Best Picture races in recent memory. Not only is no contender is a traditional winner, none is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 2016, and Moonlight's stunner in 2017 dared us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominated films reason to believe they might win the top honors on Sunday night.
You might have heard of this one. For the young folk, A Star Is Born is recognizable largely because it stars one of the more popular actors in Hollywood today with one of the biggest pop stars there is. The music-heavy film and soundtrack both were wildly popular, putting up some of the biggest box office and sales numbers of 2018. For older generations, A Star Is Born is likely recognizable on the basis of its name: this is the 4th iteration of a film that has been made thrice before, in 1937, 1954, and 1976. (Notice the gaps get bigger between each….the next one surely won’t come out until at least 2077.)
Indeed, this is a remake of a remake of a remake, with Lady Gaga the latest in an extremely impressive line of leading ladies, including Judy Garland and Barbara Streisand. You might think that hinders its chances at tonight’s Oscars, but I would argue the opposite may be true. Voters could be easily swayed by a remake that’s better than its predecessors, and it may feel to tie a bow on all versions of the movie by granting it an Oscar victory: taking a stand that this here is THE Star Is Born film to end all others. It certainly has the typical Academy Award appeal; it’s an engaging, sweeping film about love, music, mental health, and of course, show business itself. As the old mantra goes, who loves stories about show business more than Hollywood?
That line of thought especially is what led nearly everyone to pencil in A Star Is Born as the Best Picture winner…in November. But then the awards circuit came, and no film has seen quite the stunning run of being left at the altar that this one has, virtually striking out on the top award at each ceremony thus far. Unsurprisingly, its odds at capturing the Academy Award have in turn plummeted, but that does not mean hope is lost. In fact, it’s turned into a bit of a lovable underdog story; Bradley Cooper and co. know how much the masses loved his film, and the two stars have stayed tirelessly on brand in their affection for each other. Will the groundswell of sympathetic support lead to a push for Best Picture triumph? It’s not out of the question.
The biggest factor at play here, though, might not have anything to do with the motivation for how the Academy votes, but rather, the method in which they do. The tiered voting system asks Academy members to rank all of the Best Picture nominees, and even if A Star Is Born is in the minority for 1st-place votes, it’s easy to see it being universally appreciated to garner many 2nd and 3rd-place votes. If it survives the cuts, and ends up being shortlisted along perhaps more divisive or complex nominees like say, BlackKklansman, The Favourite, and Roma, it’s not too hard to imagine seeing A Star Is Born win the day, as a film appealing enough to critics and commoners alike.