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Why Green Book Will Win Best Picture


'Tis the week before the Oscars, and 8 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only a few films have won any of the top prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Alfonso Cuarón's Roma] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, many have called this one of the most wide-open Best Picture races in recent memory. Not only is no contender is a traditional winner, none is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 2016, and Moonlight's stunner in 2017 dared us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 8 nominated films reason to believe they might win the top honors on Sunday night.

 

I’m not sure if there’s a legitimate Best Picture contender in recent history as unlikely as Green Book. Not, mind you, because of any of the actual plot material. A generally lighthearted comedy/drama about an ignorant driver who becomes employed by, the eventually befriended by, an uptight black musician sounds like the stuff of Oscar dreams. Rather, it’s everything outside the film that renders it such an unlikely success.

The film has faced extensive backlash pretty much from its release, for its perceived ‘White Savior’ syndrome, and its simplistic take on racial dynamics in the Civil Rights Era. Figures as prominent as Spike Lee have dismissively referred to it as a new Driving Miss Daisy, a former Best Picture winner which incurred similar criticism for its saccharine spoonful of racial reconciliation. Then came criticism from the family of real-life Don Shirley, Mahershala Ali’s character, which disputed the authenticity of several events. If that wasn’t enough, there was the unearthing of the head screenwriter’s old Islamophobic tweet and old stories of the director’s sexual harassment on set.

Somehow, through all of this, Green Book persisted as an awards circuit mainstay. When it scored upset Original Screenplay and Best Motion Picture victories at the Golden Globes, it was extremely noteworthy. Still, the Globes are far from the most predictive awards for the Oscars, and the backlash/controversy only ratcheted up further. That still didn’t stop the film from taking top honors at the Producer Guild Awards, though, and THAT made people take notice. Since its inception, the PGAs have been the most predictive of the Oscar Best Picture of any other awards show. Recently, The Big Short and La La Land fell short at the Oscars after taking the PGA, but 23 of the other 26 winners have gone on to win the best prize. It was enough to make Green Book the odds-on favorite, though they have been eclipsed since by Roma.

And perhaps, despite absolutely everything that screams “Don’t pick me!!!”, we shouldn’t be surprised at all if Green Book is announced as the winner. After all, the very material that has made its reception so mixed with audiences might play perfectly for a voting base that isn’t exactly always, er, ambitious in their choices. Many have found Green Book offensive, but it may be perfectly inoffensive to the pertinent crowd.

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