Why The Shape Of Water Will Win Best Picture
Tis the day of the Oscars, and 9 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [this one] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 16, and Moonlight's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 9 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
And then there was one. And not just any one, but THE one. The runaway favorite to take home Best Picture. Similar to the movie discussed yesterday, The Shape Of Water is an unconventional favorite. The storyline has the trappings of a basic period piece interspersed with strange fantasy. Though the technical aspects of the film are of course done well, there’s nothing technically stunning about it. And of course, there’s the relationship between two of the protagonists, which is, let’s just say….controversial. All of those oddities are what makes Shape Of Water a vulnerable frontrunner, and in turn, this Best Picture race one of the biggest toss-ups in recent years.
Yet, a frontrunner is a frontrunner, and there is more than one reason that The Shape Of Water is the odds-on favorite to claim tonight’s biggest prize. For one, it is easily the most-nominated movie of the night, garnering nominations in 13 different categories. For reference, until La La Land last year, every Oscar nominee that had ever had at least 11 nominations had gone on to win Best Picture (some recent examples are Chicago [2002], The Return Of The King [2003], and The King’s Speech [2010]). The Oscars wouldn’t be the first awards show in which Shape Of Water won big, either; they’ve notched victories in the Critics’ Choice, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild Awards, all historically predictive for the Best Picture Oscar. The Critics’ Choice triumph is especially telling— the last two, and 8 of the last 10 Academy Award Best Picture winners have first claimed that one. And unlike most of those past winners, The Shape Of Water won the Critics’ Choice despite not being the most critically-acclaimed of the nominees (that would be Dunkirk or Lady Bird this year), a fact that could work either for or against its strength as an Oscar contender.
It may be surprising to see this film be the recipient of so many honors, but perhaps it shouldn’t be. Director and screenwriter Guillermo Del Toro adds enough dimensions to Shape Of Water to make it an engaging watch for many people. It is, at its core, a heartfelt drama about love borne out of loneliness. However, it toes the line between that and genuine comedy, as well as transportive fantasy, as well as the dark violence of a thriller. In other words, it may have feet in enough camps to ensure mass appeal to voters.
Yet, the biggest argument for The Shape Of Water’s victory tonight, were it to be, is the Auteur argument. There is a widespread belief that, put simply, this is the aforementioned Del Toro’s time. The Mexican director is one-third of the legendary “Three Amigos Of Cinema”, and is the only one to have not won an Academy Award (Alfonso Cuarón won for Gravity, Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu for Birdman and The Revenant). In the eyes of many, the famous director was snubbed in past years for Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and especially Pan’s Labyrinth. The result is a present-day wave of sympathetic support that has rendered him virtually a shoo-in for Best Director. Similar to what was the case for Martin Scorcese and The Departed in 2006, that same wave could very well also carry Del Toro to the biggest award of them all.