Why Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Will Win Best Picture

Tis the week before the Oscars, and 9 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 16, and Moonlight's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 9 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.

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We’re down to the two runaway favorites for tomorrow’s prize. The first of these, the slightly less runaway of a favorite, is 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. To avoid needing page breaks on this blog, it will heretofore be known as 3 Billboards. (Side note: after a run of Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight, a win for 3 Billboards would be a landmark victory for films with absurdly long titles).

More so than favorites of past year, this appears to be a frontrunner that’s ripe to get upset. It’s not a conventional winner by any means, and perhaps more pertinent, it’s not without controversy. Indeed, 3 Billboards has quickly become this year’s La La Land- not because of stylistic similarities, but because it’s been the oft-award winner that is increasingly incurring backlash. Most of the backlash centers around the movie’s treatment of/attitude towards black citizens, which, for obvious reasons, could be a liability for its chances at victory. Yet, unexpected as it may be, few movies have cleaned up on the awards circuit like 3 Billboards has. Victories at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Satellite Awards, and SAGs, mean that most of the predictive awards for Best Picture have been claimed by Martin McDonagh’s film.

Two points Christian made yesterday in his case for Lady Bird also lend themselves to a 3 Billboards advantage, the first of those being other major nominations. Billboards (that’s right, I shortened it even more) boasts the likely winner for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, and is a contender for Best Original Screenplay and Best Original Score. Having that sort of representation is indicative of a well-rounded and thoroughly-acclaimed film. Secondly, one can’t underplay the potential for a #TimesUp factor. In a year that the Oscars are bound to be vociferous in their support of a pro-woman movement, what better way for them to lend their support than to honor a movie whose protagonist is a badass woman in pursuit of justice?

It’s bizarre to see a dark comedy as a possible Best Picture winner. But that door was opened by Birdman; who’s to say it can’t stay open for a movie equally brilliant, funny, and impactful?