Why Lady Bird Will Win Best Picture
Tis the week before the Oscars, and 9 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 16, and Moonlight's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 9 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
What are the ingredients a film needs to have to win Best Picture? Typically it needs to be nominated for Director and Screenplay as well, along with one or two acting categories— of course there are exceptions, but for the most part you need to be in most if not all of these. Though Greta Gerwig is a force to be reckoned with (Lady Bird is her first solo feature, and with it she has already made history), I’m not very confident about her film winning anything else in the entire night; yet despite that, I still think the movie has a shot at claiming Best Picture. Below are 4 reasons why:
The Little Movie With The Big Heart: If you follow the Oscars a lot, you start to notice some patterns. One that I have noticed is that in recent years, the larger scale, effects-driven movie is the one that wins Best Director, while Best Picture goes to the smaller movie with the big heart and/or important message. We saw this last year with Damion Chazelle winning for Director with La La Land, but Moonlight winning Best Picture in an upset. We saw it the year before that with Alejandro G. Inarritu winning for The Revenant, but Spotlight winning Best Picture— after its only other award win of the night was for Original Screenplay. Again, just a couple years before, Alfonso Cuaron won for the expansive Gravity, but 12 Years A Slave won Best Picture. I would go on, but I think you get my point. This year’s Best Director award is without a doubt going to Guillermo Del Toro. That is seemingly one of the few absolute locks of the night. Its vision is undeniably bold and it’s quite the directorial achievement. But, if we are to judge by recent history, I sense another split between Director/Best Picture, and I think Lady Bird could be the one to benefit from that.
Preferential Ballot: Recently, the Academy made a new voting rule for Best Picture called the “preferential ballot,” which has been discussed on this series on a couple occasions. All voters are asked to rank each film from 1-9 from their favorite to their least favorite. So, it’s no longer as easy as just writing one movie you want to win Best Picture. Ergo, a lot of people could put something like Three Billboards at number one, but then a lot of folks who dislike it could put it at number nine, costing it the top award. This is going to sound like a criticism, but I promise it isn’t: if you want your movie to win, you likely have to be the “safest one.” Or rather, the one that nobody hates. Lady Bird may not be everybody’s number one, but since everybody seems to at least LIKE it, people could put it at their number two or three, which would add up in the end. Movies like Shape Of Water and Three Billboards have been rather divisive, and Get Out might score lower on the ballot for older Academy members.
#TimesUp: This isn’t a political statement in any which way; it’s just that objectively, it could play a factor in how people vote. 2017 was a big year for woman in the film industry (and everywhere else) and this movement made some serious waves for change. People may want to further prove this in how they vote by awarding not just a female-centered film, but a female-centered writer/director that women everywhere can relate to and celebrate. Even if Gerwig doesn’t win Best Director or Original Screenplay, her first big movie winning the industry’s top prize would still be huge for her and female filmmakers as a whole. Seems like an opportunity that Academy members won’t want to pass up. Especially since every year they fight to cling on to social relevance.
It’s Just So Damn Good: Above all, all other points aside, Lady Bird is just a one of a kind film that deserves a win! The quality speaks for itself. I’m probably being too optimistic on this point since the Academy has a long track record of snubbing quality, but truly, the film is good enough to win just by being excellent, without the assistance of any of the aforementioned factors.