Why Dunkirk Will Win Best Picture
Tis the week before the Oscars, and 9 films are ramping up their campaigns in a last-minute push for the top prize of them all, Best Picture. The biggest award has the potential to be either one of the most anticlimactic or most surprising result in recent years. The former is true, because really only two films have won any of the prizes on the awards circuit, and one of those [Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water] is a notable step ahead in the sweepstakes. However, neither frontrunner is a traditional winner, nor is without controversy; those facts, as well as the Oscars' less predictable preferential voting system means that no nominee can be counted out of the race. Birdman's and Spotlight's upsets in 2015 and 16, and Moonlight's stunner last year taught us to expect the unexpected, so we're here to give fans of all 9 nominees reason to believe on Sunday.
When Dunkirk saw wide release in the United States, it was easy to peg it as the ‘film to beat’ at the Oscars. After all, it was an esteemed director with something of a cult like following introducing a military movie, depicting a famous war story shockingly unrepresented by cinema in general. The universally rave reviews ranged from previous cynics whom Nolan had finally won over with Dunkirk’s technical detail and daringly unfamiliar characters, to impassioned fanboys who recognized the familiar Nolanesque touches, like the nonlinear timeline and action punctuated by a piercing Hans Zimmer score. But, if the awards circuit performance is any indicator, it would appear as if film nuts were too ready to crown a winner in July; a bit premature, considering nobody knew anything yet of these films named after water and a podunk town in Missouri.
Indeed, Dunkirk’s lack of victories on the circuit are not a great indication of its chances at Best Picture glory, but don’t count the Brits out by any means. As a matter of fact, there’s a good argument to be made for Dunkirk as the most likely spoiler on Sunday night. For starters, the aforementioned reasons haven’t suddenly disappeared. It was a summer blockbuster for a reason, and that it was buried in an avalanche of later releases may not be as pertinent in the Academy Awards— after all, members of the Academy spend more time re-watching films and wining and dining the directors and actors of each nominee than any other award show. What’s more— and this may seem silly, but it’s true — Hollywood is a bunch of covert Anglophiles. Really, the Academy loves few things as much as they do British people creating well-made British films (see King’s Speech, English Patient, Philomena). This movie certainly honors that tradition.
Most importantly of all, though, this will be the 3rd year of the new voting system, which tallies accumulated points based on a 1-5 ranking of nominees. This is a change from simply counting the highest amount of 1st-place votes, and in the two previous years of this system, we witnessed Spotlight upset The Revenant, and Moonlight (which had whiffed on nearly all the predictive awards circuit prizes) stun La La Land. What was the common theme in those two winners (besides the suffix "-light")? Both were the most universally respected by critics of all the nominees. This voting system, in the event of a close race, rewards the films that are generally regarded highly by most everyone. Just as Dunkirk isn’t likely to have as many ardent supporters as other nominees, it’s equally likely to not have many ardent detractors. And any guesses on which of the nine nominees has the highest consensus approval from critics? You guessed it.
So, whether you’re a Nolan aficionado, fascinated with British history, or just a fan of a magnificently crafted film, I would recommend tuning in on Sunday night still. You may just see a pleasant surprise.